I'm not attempting to disprove that point. I'm saying it's irrelevant. The fact of players being able to play worse from one year to the next shouldn't (and doesn't) stop clubs signing them.
I think you’ll find the irrelevancy in this discussion about player performance is them signing with clubs, other than that being further evidence one way or another of their performance. Do you reckon will see a Moimosea extension in the future based on how he’s gone so far?
I'm sure they do. It is considered less likely (not impossible) for younger players and more likely (not inevitable) for older players. But they still need to sign players, any of which might play worse the following year, or the year after that.
This could easily be gotcha moment. Players getting better/worse was the crux of my argument. Whether they signed or not, see above for relevancy.
Which 30 players do you think finished ahead of him?
The other players who played NRL excluding Jrthur as he left, plus Ky Rodwell.
I reckon you are the only one here who don’t.
He appeared in 11 NRL games, including the final eight, while half a dozen other top 30 forwards played reserve grade. Hardly an example of a minimum salary player. It's just lucky that we got him so cheap, though understandable given his poor form in reserve grade prior to this year.
You’re gotcha. Fine take your pick of the experienced, highly skilled but highly error prone Lumelume, who’d I’d have ahead of the reserve grade dominant Rodwell, who’d I’d have ahead of the speedy potential of AMS who showed more effort than Moimosea. Mataele is another to consider but I’m not convinced his defence issues would cover the gap to AMS.
Moretti’s reserve grade form from prior to 2023 is irrelevant to discussion about his current form. All it really proves is players get better/worse. Maybe Moretti will be the one to fall out of the top 30 in 2024!
His annual stats are at the bottom, under 'Career by Season':
https://www.nswrl.com.au/players/nsw-cup/parramatta-eels-nsw-cup/luca-moretti/
Moretti was poor. That's why he's on the deal he's on. Momoisea was pretty good (though plagued by injury) which is why he's in the top 30:
https://www.nswrl.com.au/players/nsw-cup/parramatta-eels-nsw-cup/jirah-momoisea/
Except this year when Moretti’s stats shit on Moimosea’s. And also shows Moimosea had his worse season since his first with Knights. Almost like one player got better while the other got worse. But hey it could mean they go the other way in 2024.
Well we'll see how another pre-season treats him. Form isn't static. Momoisea and Moretti are proof of that. And recency bias is a killer.
Recency bias in determining where players sit at a point in time is perfectly acceptable.
The good news for you is Moimosea is back in our best 30 players now. Although that’s because our top 30 standard has dropped. Even then it’s still probably a close run thing between Moimosea, Cini, Mataele and Taumoepenu. I suspect Talagi will quickly go past all of them.