The numbers behind the Dragons late season fades
The big question finally answered for Red V fans.
Matthew Fairhall
CONTRIBUTOR
March 26, 2019 - 2:27 pm
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MUDGEE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 02: Gareth Widdop of the Dragons speaks to his team after a Rabbitohs try during the NRL Trial match, which is the Charity Shield match between the South Sydney Rabbitohs and the St George Illawarra Dragons at Glen Willow Stadium on March 02, 2019 in Mudgee, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
For St George Illawarra fans, the late-season fade has become the norm.
Seeing promising campaigns derailed in 2016 where they lost 7 of their last 9, 2017 where the Red V was Top Four midway through the year only to crash out and miss the finals by a single win and 2018, where they fell from the top of the ladder in Round 17 to seventh by season’s end, has crushed the hearts of the faithful.
Surely the Dragons are doomed to repeat this pattern in 2019, right? Not if Scoop gets his way.
If Coach
Paul McGregor can learn the error of his ways by fixing the Dragons rotations, the Dragons could have the firepower to finish top four.
2019 Average Substitution times
How do the Dragons fare with their in-game substitutions? Is this where they are going wrong? The table below compares the Dragons against last season’s top sides in terms of which minute they made their substitutions on average.
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Dragons 21 26 35 49 55 60 69 74
Roosters 25 28 36 53 59 63 68 75
Storm 20 26 33 50 56 62 68 74
Rabbitohs 17 25 38 51 56 63 69 73
Sharks 21 28 38 50 55 61 67 73
Cowboys 22 26 33 45 54 58 61 67
The data shows the Dragons right there with the best teams in the timing of their substitutions, which can always be affected by injuries but over the course of the season shows a very accurate reflection of the rotation plan. This is not causing the Red V’s late-season fades. What about the number of minutes they are riding their forwards then? Read on to find out.
Want to know how the rest of the teams fare with their substitutions? Check out this article by Alicia Newton over at NRL.com for more: https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/01/25/stat-attack-how-your-club-uses-the-interchange/
Workhorse forwards
Minutes played by the forwards in 2018
Let’s look at the split of minutes across the forwards and see if this is where it all went wrong.
Player Games Minutes Minutes Per Game (MPG) % of possible game time
T. Sims 23 1,770 76.95
96.19%
C. McInnes 24 1,779 74.12
92.65%
T. Frizell 21 1,480 70.47
88.09%
J. De Belin 23 1,330 57.82
72.28%
J. Graham 24 1,166 48.58
60.72%
P. Vaughn 19 921 48.47
60.59%
L. Leuilua 15 609 40.60
50.75%
L. Ah Mau 23 906 39.39
49.23%
J. Latimore 23 678 29.47
36.84%
J. Host 6 124 20.66
25.83%
B. Lawrie 8 155 19.37
24.21%
H. Sele 4 76 19.0
23.75%
Note: McInnes had an outlier 57-minute game in round 24. Vaughn played just 11 minutes in round 21 (inj.).
The issue here is the spread of minutes among the forwards. Sele (23.75%), Lawrie (24.21%), Host (25.83%) and Latimore (36.84%) appear underused. Let’s compare this with the regular bench forwards for the Storm.
Player Games Minutes Average minutes % of possible game time
F. Kaufusi 18 1,421 78.94
98.68%
C. Smith 23 1,763 76.65
95.81%
R. Hoffman 20 1,347 67.35
84.18%
D. Finucane 15 816 54.40
68.00%
J. Stimson 21 1,104 52.57
65.71%
J.Bromwich 17 800 47.05
58.82%
N. Asofa-Solomona 22 929 42.22
52.78%
T. Glasby 21 880 41.90
52.38%
K. Bromwich 22 853 38.77
48.46%
C. Welch 23 816 35.47
44.34%
B.Smith 15 416 27.73
34.66%
S. Kasiano 13 318 24.46
30.57%
H. Grant 1 23 23.00
28.75%
T.Kamikamica 5 90 18.00
22.50%
P. Kaufusi 2 31 15.50
19.37%
A.Vete 1 15 15.00
18.75%
SEE ALSO: Why as a Rooster, I want the club to relocate
In stark contrast to the Dragons interchange forwards, the Storm show plenty of faith in their regular bench players. Kenny Bromwich (48.46%), Welch (35.47%), Asofa-Solomona (42.22%) and even noted short burst weapon
Sam Kasiano (30.57%) played extensive minutes in 2018. The Dragons also used 4 fewer forwards than Storm on the season. This is where the Dragons must improve in 2019 to match it with NRL’s top tier sides, spreading the minutes across their depth.
Minute allocation
First 12 games vs. last 12 games
Let’s split the season in half using the Dragons round 13 bye as the divider and see if there is a change in the minutes for the pack from the first half to the second half.
Player 1st 12 Games Last 12 games Difference
J. Stimson 44.66 58.50 +13.84
T. Glasby 37.70 45.72 +8.02
B.Smith 24.66 32.33 +7.67
J.Bromwich 45.87 48.11 +2.24
K. Bromwich 37.80 39.58 +1.78
N. Asofa-Solomona 41.58 43.00 +1.42
F. Kaufusi 78.33 79.55 +1.22
C. Welch 36.36 34.66 -1.70
C. Smith 78.54 74.91 -3.63
D. Finucane 56.25 52.28 -3.97
S. Kasiano 25.09 21.00 -4.09
R. Hoffman 76.63 56.00 -20.63
T.Kamikamica N/A 18.00 N/A
P. Kaufusi N/A 15.50 N/A
A.Vete 0.00 15.00 N/A
H. Grant 23.00 N/A N/A
Note:
Harry Grant played in Rd.11 as a backup Hooker in Cam Smith’s absence. Hoffman’s 2nd half was marred by 3 games with shorter minutes due to injury or return from injury (Rd. 25).
Player 1st 12 Games MPG Last 12 games MPG Difference
L. Leuilua 18.00 51.90 +33.90
H. Sele 14.66 32.00 +17.34
J. Host 6.00 20.66 +14.66
B. Lawrie 10.50 22.33 +11.83
L. Ah Mau 36.25 42.81 +6.56
J. Latimore 27.81 31.00 +3.19
T. Sims 75.75 78.27 +2.52
J. De Belin 56.83 58.90 +2.07
J. Graham 48.33 48.83 +0.50
C. McInnes 77.66 77.25 -0.41
P. Vaughn 51.08 44.00 -7.08
T. Frizell 74.41 65.22 -9.19
As we see Leilua, Lawrie, Host Ah Mau and Sele (1 2nd half game) increased their minutes significantly, while Vaughn (before injury) and Frizell saw significant decreases in their minutes. Rather than increasing the minutes of their key forwards in the key games before the finals, the Dragons were reducing them likely due to the fatigue from the heavy workload in the early season (We will ignore the ridiculous experiment with
Jason Nightingale in the forwards, emergency or not).
Comparison of the predominately interchange Forward playing time
Dragons Percentage of possible game time Storm Percentage of possible game time
Ah Mau 49.23% Asofa-Solomona 52.78%
Host 25.80% K. Bromwich 48.46%
Latimore 36.84% Welch 44.34%
Lawrie 24.21% Kasiano 30.57%
Average 34.02% Average 44.03%
The Dragons often carried a utility, such as Kurt Mann, as their 4th interchange player in 2018 which along with putting more minutes on the forwards also makes comparison a somewhat inexact science. But in the instances where the Dragons would carry four forwards, as the Storm typically do, we see they occupy 9.99% less playing time that their Storm counterparts (worse when Kasiano is replaced by a more traditional forward like Stimson). This is yet more wear and tear being placed on the Dragons forwards and another contributing factor to their late-season fades.
https://www.zerotackle.com/the-numbers-behind-the-dragons-late-season-fades-41983/
