The following needs to happen for us to make the finals:
We win both our remaining games...
Brisbane lose to the Warriors next week then beat the Raiders the week after...
Canberra beat Cowboys next week but then lose to Brisbane the week after...
Parramatt can win both of their remaining games but not by huge margins...
Souths only win one of their remaining two games...
So there are about 8 games over the next two weeks that will impact on us. The first two of those are on Friday night.
Really? I was under the impression that if Broncos win one more game, that pretty much rounds off the 8. If the Knights win both of their last two games, they finish on 28. If Broncos or Raiders at least one of their last two games, they will be on at least 28.
Broncos F/A is 7. Raiders is -40. What you would want is for Broncos to lose both games (so regardless of your for and against, you will leapfrog them on premiership points), and for Raiders to lose next week. This is because the Raiders are actually the team to play the Broncos in Round 26.
If the Raiders lose next week, only beat Broncos by a few points in Round 26, that would mean:
8th - Raiders - 28 (F/A = approximately -30)
9th - Broncos - 26 (F/A = approximately 0)
...now if Knights win both of their last two matches, and South Sydney lose both of their last two matches, and Warriors beat Parramatta in Round 26, you should be safely in at 8th.
So results you need are:
Next week:
Cowboys beat Raiders
Warriors beat Brisbane
Parramatta beat Souths
Knights beat Dragons
Last round:
Warriors beat Parramatta
Dragons beat Souths
Raiders beat Broncos
Knights beat Storm
If all of those results go your way, then you will have:
8th - Knights 28
9th - Raiders 28
10th - Brisbane 26
11th - Parramatta 26
12th - Souths 24
If Brisbane win one of their next two games, Knights are gone regardless of whether you win both remaining games - F/A might be too much to catch up.
If Souths win both of their next two games, Knights are gone regardless of whether you win both remaining games - F/A might be too much to catch up.
If Raiders win one of their next two games, Knights are gone unless they can win both games and by good margins.
If the team that wins the Round 26 clash between the Broncos and Raiders also won the week before, Knights are gone.
Either way, you are hoping that:
- Knights win both remaining games
- Raiders, Broncos, Eels and Souths all don't win more than one of the remaining games (you are in luck in this instance, as Eels/Souths is next week and Raiders/Broncos in final round - in these clashes, you want the team with the worse F/A to win, i.e. Parramatta and Raiders, unless they won the previous week)
Tangled web, yes, but possible still. Stranger things have happened.
