Southern Orcas (NZ2)

[cumbrian Mackem]

How?

It isn't going to be financially feasible for Fiji to have it's own NRL team for a long time, so all that matters to the NRL is whether or not they can scout players from Fiji, and considering that The Dura have existed since 2017 and it's had precisely zero impact on the NRL's ability to scout Fijian players I don't see what the issue is.

Besides, the jury is still out on whether or not the Dura are viable as a Super Rugby club, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them struggle financially in the future.

The Dura competed in a 2nd tier competition until their inclusion into the super rugby competition.

Dont kid yourself mate into thinking that Fijians are somewhat lovers of rugby league or are loyal to the game because the overwhelming majority of them prefer Union and if the opportunity arose to switch codes they’d grab it in a heartbeat.

 

[The Great Dane]

The Dura competed in a 2nd tier competition until their inclusion into the super rugby competition.

Dont kid yourself mate into thinking that Fijians are somewhat lovers of rugby league or are loyal to the game because the overwhelming majority of them prefer Union and if the opportunity arose to switch codes they’d grab it in a heartbeat.

You know what Fijians, just like everybody else in the world, are even more loyal to; their wages!

Unless you are one of the absolute elite All Blacks or Wallabies, there's a better living to be made in the NRL, AFL, or other international competitions than in Super Rugby, and pre covid that gap was widening not closing.

 

[flippikat]

I don't think 2024 is out of the question considering PVL's history of bullishness and forcing and rushing things. It's probably unlikely, but not outside of the realms of possibility.

The NRL 'toppling' the All Blacks isn't out of the question either. In the early 00s when RU was flying many people at the club I helped out at laughed at me when I said that the AFL and NRL would suck the life out of the ARU within a couple of decades unless they made big changes in the grassroots, and look at RU now...

Considering the NZRU's current financial position, the internal competition they face from other competitions for talent, the fact that there've never really had to deal with an aggressive competitor on home soil before, and the All Blacks current position and the sport's reliance on their success to push interest within NZ, I think that RU in NZ is in a more precarious position now than it's been in a long, long, time.

Does that mean that the NRL will 'topple' the All Blacks; probably not in the foreseeable future, but A. it's not outside the realms of possibility, especially if the NZRU make a few critical mistakes, and B. they don't have to. All the NRL have to do to have a large impact is make themselves a strong competitor in the NZ market and take a significant portion of market share from RU in the process.

Rugby in New Zealand is in bigger trouble than they're letting on.

The loss of South Africa from Super Rugby was huge - the South African games timeslots plugged right into the European (Read: UK/France) TV market.. and now with that revenue stream kneecapped it's just down to NZ (great talent, great public interest, but limited money, timezone that coincides with no-one else), Australia (limited talent, limited public interest, slightly better timezone), and the Pacific Islands which bring talent but little commercially.

Super Rugby can't "fall back" on a big Australian market (and big revenue from Australia), because most of the time Australians don't really care that much for union.

Also, just looking at the "Super Rugby Pacific" competition for next year, there's very little potential for further growth in Australia/NZ/Pacific Islands... Perth is already there, NZ is well covered, the Pacific has 2 teams... nothing else can be added without cannibalizing existing teams bases.

Unless Asia and/or America can be brought up to speed & integrated into top tier Pacific competitions (Super Rugby, Rugby Championship), then the revenue growth is limited.

Bringing the argument back to NRL, the potential for growth within NZ & Australia is HUGE. Australia has decent revenue currently - gees imagine where we'd be if we had a NZ derby (even a 3rd NZ club, long term), and Perth.

 

[The Great Dane]

Wont happen as there will be no tv renegotiation until 2025 earliest. The value of the 18th club could be massive as it gives an extra game to screen each round. They will want to be getting the max value out of that as they can. Realistically they should be looking for $30-40million a year extra for the extra tv slot, ideally on FTA. NZTV isn't going to stump that up.

If the numbers in the article are to be believed (and who knows really), Sky has already increased it's deal up from A$94mil to A$160mil. That's an increase of almost $70mil for basically nothing but to stop a competitor getting the rights. So considering that, who is to say what they would be willing to pay for more NZ content. Who is to say that they haven't already been promised a second club as part of the current deal, we haven't seen the contract so WTF do know.

Besides, since when has such an insignificant things as a contract stopped PVL from doing what he wants to do. Again, I don't think it's likely to happen in 2024, but at the same time I think it's silly to suggest that it's impossible.

 

[jim_57]

I think NZ Rugby out played the NRL with the introduction of the Moana & Fijian teams into the Super stuff.
The 18th team would surely have been fishing in those waters for players.

Yeh but what exactly can the NRL do? Fiji or the Islands couldn’t sustain an NRL team. Silktails are still going and hopefully can get to NSW Cup one day.

More comprehensive development systems for sure but teams at the top level will probably never happen in the NRL. That’s probably more of a sign that Super Rugby is struggling not that they’ve beaten NRL to the punch.

 

[flippikat]

. That’s probably more of a sign that Super Rugby is struggling not that they’ve beaten NRL to the punch.

Exactly. They can't put another team in NSW or Qld as that would erode the following those RU teams have, nor can they carve-off a 6th or 7th team in NZ for the same reason - and you *could* argue that Pacific teams may shave a little support off some of the NZ teams (especially in Auckland).

Japan, the USA, Canada or Argentina offer some hope to really expand their revenue streams.. BUT they're not on-field powers at this stage, and travel demands get worse if those markets get expansion teams.

Rugby Union snookered itself into this move when South Africa left super rugby.

 

[Perth Red]

I

If the numbers in the article are to be believed (and who knows really), Sky has already increased it's deal up from A$94mil to A$160mil. That's an increase of almost $70mil for basically nothing but to stop a competitor getting the rights. So considering that, who is to say what they would be willing to pay for more NZ content. Who is to say that they haven't already been promised a second club as part of the current deal, we haven't seen the contract so WTF do know.

Besides, since when has such an insignificant things as a contract stopped PVL from doing what he wants to do. Again, I don't think it's likely to happen in 2024, but at the same time I think it's silly to suggest that it's impossible.

I suspect there’s a pretty hefty contra amount in there given the commentary in the articles at the time. It was $100 mill so about $12mill a year increase which wouldn’t even cover cost of grant let alone extra costs involved.

 

[cumbrian Mackem]

You know what Fijians, just like everybody else in the world, are even more loyal to; their wages!

Unless you are one of the absolute elite All Blacks or Wallabies, there's a better living to be made in the NRL, AFL, or other international competitions than in Super Rugby, and pre covid that gap was widening not closing.

I’m guessing the English premiership and top league in france could more than match the NRL in terms of wages.

 

[The Great Dane]

I’m guessing the English premiership and top league in france could more than match the NRL in terms of wages.

France and Japan can sure, but that's been the case more or less forever and hasn't stopped the NRL from scouting a steady stream of Fijians, and hurts Super Rugby/RU in Fiji more than it does RL.

It's hard to access French and Japanese rugby in Fiji, meanwhile the NRL is broadcast on FTA in Fiji... Seeing the pattern of issues facing RU in the region yet.

 

[The Great Dane]

I

I suspect there’s a pretty hefty contra amount in there given the commentary in the articles at the time. It was $100 mill so about $12mill a year increase which wouldn’t even cover cost of grant let alone extra costs involved.

Somebody is allowing their bias for Perth to delude their judgement again.

 

[Dark Corner]

It's interesting, but there isn't really much new in it.

The NRL's moves in NZ have been clear for roughly the last 6 months to a year, and the writing is well and truly on the wall that PVL and Abdo want the 18th side to be in NZ.

Whether or not that 2nd team happens in 2024 remains to be seen, but that article seems to suggest that Sky supports the idea, and that it may have even been discussed as part of the negotiations for the new broadcasting deal. If that turns out to be the case then you can basically bank that the 18th team will be from NZ, and that any further expansion of the NRL almost certainly won't happen for roughly a decade at the minimum, which is probably a great outcome for RL in NZ (and the PI's more broadly), but I'm not sold that it's the best move for the NRL or RL in Australia.

No matter how things go down I do hope that they pay a mind to the broader market and don't just focus on Auckland and either Wellington or Canterbury depending on which gets an NRL license. The real growth in NZ is in the lower tiers and grassroots, and that is also where the biggest moves against the NZRU can be made. Teams in every market aren't as valuable as siphoning as much of the best talent off as possible by offering them better opportunities in RL and feeding them into the RL system before they become stars in RU.

Who looks after Touch, Tag Rugby in New Zealand ?
Also judging by the sports starved fans in post Covid with Lockdowns etc I noticed the the Super comp started this year the crowds were quite poor but then again that can be from the mess these pandemic has become.

 

[flippikat]

Who looks after Touch, Tag Rugby in New Zealand ?
Also judging by the sports starved fans in post Covid with Lockdowns etc I noticed the the Super comp started this year the crowds were quite poor but then again that can be from the mess these pandemic has become.

About Us - Touch Rugby Comps & Events

touchrugby.co.nz

The NRL (Maybe in conjunction with NZRL) should buy into this as a strategic asset. NOW.

 

[TGG]

Just a heads up. There is a difference in NZ between ‘Touch Rugby’ & ‘Touch Football’. “Touch Football NZ” have connections with the NRL. They help organise and run the NZ Warriors NRL Touch Premiership team.

 

[Perth Red]

Somebody is allowing their bias for Perth to delude their judgement again.

Happy for you to prove me wrong, what you can’t?

 

[MugaB]

Happy for you to prove me wrong, what you can’t?

I think he meant a rival bid, pricks up it ears and PR is already kyboshing it

 

[The Great Dane]

Happy for you to prove me wrong, what you can’t?

Unless you're privy to the internal conversations at and between the NRL, ARLC, and broadcasters it's impossible to truly know what's going on. Our conversation is all speculation and you know it.

Considering that PVL has a history of rushing things, such as rushing the Dolphins into the comp for 2023 despite everybody with a brain seeing that that would make it extremely hard for them to build a competitive team, I think it's possible that he could do it again for 2024.

However, there's a big difference between saying that something is possible and that it's likely or will happen.

 

[Perth Red]

I think he meant a rival bid, pricks up it ears and PR is already kyboshing it

If it isnt Perth Id much rather it be NZ2 than another Brisbane club or even worse another NSW club.

 

[MugaB]

If it isnt Perth Id much rather it be NZ2 than another Brisbane club or even worse another NSW club.

Well yeah that's gonna be the idea, thet just went to SEQ, they won't go back there for another decade or so... firehawks,..please

QLD still is on the table tho, don't discount that, they want SoO strong, and very competitive, its the bread winner that ALF doesn't have.... but nothing in SEQ or NSW ..sure... you are right about Adelaide, before you mentioned earlier, its an easier route to get a team up and running there problem is getting juniors feeding thru there, hence why I've said before a "bears" club moving there or east tigers having a crack elsewhere, might not be a bad idea... its really the storm ideology, pluck them out of SC/CQ

 

[Perth Red]

Well yeah that's gonna be the idea, thet just went to SEQ, they won't go back there for another decade or so... firehawks,..please

QLD still is on the table tho, don't discount that, they want SoO strong, and very competitive, its the bread winner that ALF doesn't have.... but nothing in SEQ or NSW ..sure... you are right about Adelaide, before you mentioned earlier, its an easier route to get a team up and running there problem is getting juniors feeding thru there, hence why I've said before a "bears" club moving there or east tigers having a crack elsewhere, might not be a bad idea... its really the storm ideology, pluck them out of SC/CQ

The risk averse NRL is going to want to see owners with deep pockets. At the moment there is no one from Adelaide backing any rumour of a bid. Looking at Bears LC results I dont see them being able to pour in the very large sums that will be needed to keep an Adelaide club afloat.

What we do have today is three rich guys wanting to back a Perth team and one somewhat dodgy guy in NZ who reckons he can get some rich guys involved. Now expansion isnt likely to be properly looked at until 2025 so there's plenty of time for others to come forward. The comp needs an 18th club so I can see this story running for the next few years, bit like in 2011 when everyone was convinced we were going to get two new clubs in the 2013 tv deal.

 

[MugaB]

The risk averse NRL is going to want to see owners with deep pockets. At the moment there is no one from Adelaide backing any rumour of a bid. Looking at Bears LC results I dont see them being able to pour in the very large sums that will be needed to keep an Adelaide club afloat.

What we do have today is three rich guys wanting to back a Perth team and one somewhat dodgy guy in NZ who reckons he can get some rich guys involved. Now expansion isnt likely to be properly looked at until 2025 so there's plenty of time for others to come forward. The comp needs an 18th club so I can see this story running for the next few years, bit like in 2011 when everyone was convinced we were going to get two new clubs in the 2013 tv deal.

Correct, it might get dragged out, but it will likely more to do with the Dolphins getting more entrenched in the comp and the rest of the clubs easing out of the extra team transition or tug of war on players... although really 16 to 17 isn't that much of a stretch, the NSWRL went from 16 to 20 when it formed the ARL, not thats a blue print, but if that didn't happen id say only the crushers or cowboys would be the only team in existence since then, theyd be no reds, rams, warriors or titans if thet went one by one, like whats happening at the moment, all this nostalgia of clubs gone past doesn't happen, still be an east coast game, with no fumbleball states... oh but SoO would be a cracker