Superthread LXVIII: Honouring Sore Losers from Queensland

[muzby]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

ahh.. i love game theory..

i'd switch.

 

[muzby]

I'm struggling with the mathematical relevance here. Explain a bit?

a bit is the smallest unit of data you can transfer on a computer network.

 

[muzby]

No point changing doors, the odds are identical

incorrect..

there are three possible outcomes, car is behind one of the three doors.

what will throw you out is the fact the question names a door that is opened.

if you pick door 1 in each of the three scenarios, and the host has to open a goat door, you will statistically have a 2 / 3 chance of winning a car if you switch.

 

[Different kind of Rabbit]

Of course, you could always just look at the two remaining doors and pick the one that is actually a garage door.

A car doesn't fit through a normal door.

Of course, Bulldog Force would pick the normal sized door.

 

[DB]

When I read the title of the ST, I get this song in my head.

We've got a goon on a string, a goon on a string

(Which is repeated)

 

[Rhino_NQ]

goat

 

[Different kind of Rabbit]

Ian would just trade the car for the two goats.

 

[muzby]

Of course, you could always just look at the two remaining doors and pick the one that is actually a garage door.

A car doesn't fit through a normal door.

Of course, Bulldog Force would pick the normal sized door.

 

[Different kind of Rabbit]

Bunniesman would state that the car was definitely behind door number one and then when the host opened door number one to reveal a goat, Bunniesman would state that the goat was in fact a car and that the host was incorrect.

 

[Dragon2010]

Of course, you could always just look at the two remaining doors and pick the one that is actually a garage door.

A car doesn't fit through a normal door.

Of course, Bulldog Force would pick the normal sized door.

Reminds me of this:

 

[Different kind of Rabbit]

Muzby would open a door to reveal Rick Astley singing "never gonna give you up"

 

[Different kind of Rabbit]

Reminds me of this:

lol

"Mr Griffin, will you take the boat or the mystery box?"

 

[Different kind of Rabbit]

Timmah would point out that the doors should in fact be on the front of a house and that using doors as game show props is inappropriate use of a door.

 

[Different kind of Rabbit]

When asked which door he would like the host to open, Rhino would answer "Hodor"

 

[DB]

lol

"Mr Griffin, will you take the boat or the mystery box?"

I once convinced my cousin and his gf to take the 'mystery prize, over $75 feature on a pokie once... they ended up with $15.

 

[Apey]

Yes, for a variety of reasons, it is to your advantage to switch doors.

What most people leave out of their considerations (myself included in the past) and what makes it somewhat counter-intuitive is the role of host; that he knows what's behind each door.

The simplest 'intuitive' explanation is that there are three scenarios in which you can win the car. Say the car is in door 3 (it's the same situation regardless of the door) 1) You pick Door 3, The car is in Door 3, making the door the host opens irrelevant 2) You pick Door 1, the host opens Door 2, the car is in Door 3 3) You pick Door 2, the host opens Door 1, the car is in Door 3.

There is a 2/3 chance to win the car if you switch, 1/3 if you stay with your original choice.

 

[Bulldog Force]

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

If he says that, it's reverse psychology. Stick with your original pick!

 

[Rhino_NQ]

hodor

 

[Apey]

If he says that, it's reverse psychology. Stick with your original pick!

Of course you would, given everything just said...

The grown ups are talking.

 

[Rhino_NQ]

didn't realise the first WC game is tomorrow morning