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Superthread LXVIII: Honouring Sore Losers from Queensland

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Rhino_NQ

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just got the first wave of paperwork to get onto an LNG site, looks like that is my day done
 

Apey

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what is the 3 doors one?

Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
 

Apey

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IanG just takes the goat home from Door #3, he doesn't leave it up to chance in case he ends up with a car.
 
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Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?

Didn't they just finish a large study on this?

I'm sure they said that mathematically, it was definitely to your advantage to switch your choice.

The other way you could gain advantage in this situation was to be IanG.
 

phantom eel

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Surely, if your aim is to pick the car from behind a choice of three doors... you start with a one in three chance.

When one door is revealed to have goats, then your chance on being on the "winning choice" has increased from one in three (33%), to one in two (50%). If you swap your original choice of door, at best you'll still only have the same one in two (50% chance) at this point in the game.

No point changing doors, the odds are identical - go with your original hunch.
 
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