SWANS v St Kilda

[Smartman]

Wouldn't discount Sydney either plenty of young players that have the potential such as Luke Ablett,Luke Vogels,LRT,Paul Bevan etc

Yes but the likes of O'Loughlin, Hall and Williams will be nearing the end of their careers or retired. They will be somewhere middle of the road.

 

[Red Bear]

We've only had a team in your comp for 8 years and I'd hazard a guess to say Melbourne people know as much about League as Sydney do footy.

Absolutely f**k all then???;-)

And on your note of saying that this'd be the worst premiership winning team in years, they may not have the atrs of some team(eg essendon with Hird n Lloyd, West Coast with Judd n Cousins etc) But they are a great Team with everyone working together.

 

[Glenn]

Yes but the likes of O'Loughlin, Hall and Williams will be nearing the end of their careers or retired. They will be somewhere middle of the road.

Obviously big shoes to fill in MOL, Hall and Willo but personally confident if the young players that I mentioned go towards filling those shoes, Sydney should be a regular in finals IMHO

 

[CyberKev]

I'm sure Kev will agree with me here ..... Even if the Hawthorn kids are good enough to scale those heights, 2007 is too early. Especially with another 2 (minimum) top liners this year .... 2008-2009 will be when they come into their peak.

I'll agree on the if qualifier, given that potential (until actually realised) is nothing more than a word in the dictionary between potato and powerless.

On the second matter, I'm never keen to apply hypothetical timelines to future club development, given that teams can defy expectations either way.
Hawthorn could sneak a lower finals spot next year, or could still be waiting come 2010.

At any rate, too many people just look at their own side and, taking a positive line, track possible development over a speculative future period and anoint their club possible future premier in year whatever.

Quite aside from the folly of expecting to win a premiership, given how bloody much has to go in your favour, even when you do have a strong list to work with; their is also the issue with these sort of exercises where the individual fails to take into account development or regression at other clubs.

Just as your club may be capable of exceeding the pace of development you have in mind for it, other clubs can equally fall away unexpectedly, which -- in turn -- aids the pace of development at your own club.

Its for this reason that I prefer to get to March and gaze no further ahead than the season at hand.

I strongly believe that over that period we'll see some epic battles between Richmond/Footscray/Hawthorn in September.

Ideally, but we'll just have to wait and see.

Its instructive that Hawthorn, Richmond & the Bulldogs represent 3 of the 4 clubs that have not made a Grand Final since 1995.

The AFL would say their system is working beautifully and that these sides are on the cusp, but time alone will tell.

 

[CyberKev]

So long as all three teams can cover for the fact that their best players (Richo/Everit/Crawford/Grant) are not likely to be taking the field by that point.

It is usually Hawthorn that draws comments about the difficulty it faces in replacing ageing players, but it is much the same for most sides in the comp.

Hawthorn has 4 players on the wrong side of 30 (assuming Barker plays on) and its not as if Barker & Smith will be huge losses. Crawford has been a champion and is still playing well, but two years ago he practically WAS Hawthorn and was clearly our best player. Right now he is our 5th best player, and is being gently phased out already. Id happily give him to Essendon now for pick 7, with the only sticking point being how much of his salary we'd still be expected to pay. Everitt, will be a much tougher player to replace though, no argument. The answer is to ensure your midfield is strong enough to play well regardless of the ruck presence.

Looking at other sides:

The Bulldogs, who have been talked-up en masse, still forged their late season run largely around veterans Grant, West & Johnson. All of these players will also be on the wrong side of 30 next year, as will the returning Darcy.

Richmond, got fab seasons out of Richardson, Gaspar & Campbell. Campbell has already retired, and both the other guys will be on the wrong side of the hill next year, along with Stafford (assuming he doesn't retire this year).

Collingwood will be hoping to drag more out of veteran players Buckley, Rocca & Wakelin, but they're not spring chickens these days.

Essendon have already talked James Hird out of retirement.

And its not just the lower sides who need to be thinking ahead...

Sydney have Ball giving it away after the GF, and its almost over for Williams & Maxfield. Key players Hall, O'Loughlin & Barry will all be 29 next year, and while they could all still play for another 3 years, once you reach that age you are really only one unfortunate incident away from retirement.

The Kangaroos will be losing Rocca & Colbert this season, and Archer can't be too far behind.

St Kilda may well lose Gehrig, and both Hammil & Harvey are looking down the gun.

Bizzell & Neitz will be 30 & 31 respectively at Melbourne next year.

Port Adelaide is a veritable Dad's Army with the key players: Wanganeen, Wakelin, Francou, Primus, Wilson, etc that it needs to cover over the next couple of years.

Brisbane have overturned a few already, but still have Voss, Leppitsch, Michael, Johnson & the Scott boys to cover soon.

Adelaide will have Hart, Riccuito & McLeod among their thirtysomething brigade.

Its an issue that will be affecting everybody other than West Coast & Carlton.