The big NRL divide

[big hit!]

6 again does mean teams in a whole can get big scores racked up on them.

But that's a good thing, you don't want to reward shit spoiling tactics just for the sake of "parity".

I'm a Cowboys fan and the reason we have been bad since 2017 (GF was a fluke) is purely because we are shit.

in my time in the rugby league, I've come across two types of players - those that apply effort, and those who decide to do it when it suits them.

The 6 again rule doesn't give you that luxury. Once a 6 again is called you need to reset your counter and work hard. Line retreat, line speed, marker inside pressure, it all starts again. Most of these shit teams have players that wilt like a piece of wet lettuce once they hear that bell. The good teams rise to the challenge.

Same as Cage D. Some players love the holding the fort mentality of it. Others are happy to be a saloon door. They just want to look good when they have the ball in their hand.

And in attack, a lot of players can be like Papi if they want too. It takes effort to push support - to continually move in the vicinity of the ball carrier and be there for that one tackle in 20 that an opportunity will there to cause a line break. We only see the actual break itself. Papi is sniffing around continuously. It's easy defending one out play, Push supports continually puts the defensive line in two minds. It's no surprise Papi is being tutored by one of the best push supports in the game - Billy Slater.

 

[davi]

You aren't going to get 200 odd good games a year. Look at this week only Storm v Dogs looks like being terrible.

This round was a one off

Broncos vs Rabbitohs could get ugly as well. Brad Fittler did say on the Sunday Footy show though he thought the Broncos were getting closer in some of those patches despite the scoreline against the Storm.

 

[betcats]

6 again does mean teams in a whole can get big scores racked up on them.

But that's a good thing, you don't want to reward shit spoiling tactics just for the sake of "parity".

I'm a Cowboys fan and the reason we have been bad since 2017 (GF was a fluke) is purely because we are shit.

Such a good point.

 

[franklin2323]

Broncos vs Rabbitohs could get ugly as well. Brad Fittler did say on the Sunday Footy show though he thought the Broncos were getting closer in some of those patches despite the scoreline against the Storm.

Rabbitohs are missing a few so it brings them back. Yeah it was only that 15 min stint before halftime that let the Broncos down

 

[davi]

This whole haves and have nots conversation is made ridiculous by the broncos being talked about as a have not. They are a rich powerful club, the richest in fact. Its not about the rules, or the salary cap, or about how rich or poor a club is, Its about proper management. Dogs, Broncos, Cows, Manly have been making very questionable management decisions for a long time now their fans want to blame the rules or whatever instead of admitting their clubs are a shit show in office.

I'm starting to get a bit over this. The 'Broncos are complaining' bullshit narrative that is continuing to get brought up. If you actually look at the Broncos forum its more complaining about the decisions that have been made by management and players who have underperformed rather then the rules.

If you my read my original post I was merely starting a discussion about factors behind the lopsided scores rather then complaining. I even had a post having a go at me for starting this thread. I'm not apologising there has been some intelligent analytical discussion that has come from this thread.

 

[Perth Red]

You need to look at pre-2020

Some of these rules came in for 2020 season.

Here you go, looking at 2018 3 of the 4 rounds had smaller winning margins.
What was interesting is the number of games won by 6 points or less was significantly higher pre rule changes for for first 4 rounds.

14 (2016)
11 (2017)
13 (2018)
6 (2019)

8 (2020)
5 (2021))

It would seem closer games have been harder to come by since the rule changes. Could be a fixture anomaly, time will tell.

Avg points difference per game (games won by 12 points or more)

Rd 1
2018 10.2 (3)
2020 10.5 (3)
2021 17.8 (6)

Rd2
2018 12.7 (3)
2020 11.3 (3)
2021 13.1 (4)

Rd 3
2018 15.6 (4)
2020 18.2 (7)
2021 14.8 (4)

Rd4
2018 14.1 (5)
2020 19.1 (5)
2021 26.1 (7)

 

[betcats]

I'm starting to get a bit over this. The 'Broncos are complaining' bullshit narrative that is continuing to get brought up. If you actually look at the Broncos forum its more complaining about the decisions that have been made by management and players who have underperformed rather then the rules.

If you my read my original post I was merely starting a discussion about factors behind the lopsided scores rather then complaining. I even had a post having a go at me for starting this thread. I'm not apologising there has been some intelligent analytical discussion that has come from this thread.

Alright well im sick of a bunch of people who have watched footy most of their lives acting so clueless as to why some teams are where they are at. There is no mystery in this "great divide". Its simply one bad decision stacked on another for year after year and the result is the current broncos, or bulldogs etc

 

[Captain Apollo]

Even watching Brisbane get wrecked is losing its appeal

Hey now, let's not go overboard there

 

[Captain Apollo]

The Broncos show that no matter the club, if they get recruitment and management wrong, they can win the spoon.

The only two powerhouse clubs right now are Roosters and Melbourne. They have the pick of talent and don't need to pay overs for anybody. Players want to go there as they know they are a great chance of a premiership ring. So the salary cap stretches much further to the point they have depth players that would be first graders elsewhere.

Look at the Roosters, lose Keary and bring in the next NRL star in waiting, ready to go halfback. How many NRL clubs have that sort of quality waiting in the wings in spine positions?

The rest rise and fall based on juniors coming through before they are taken, and good recruitment, but it's a whole different game competing with the two above. At least for now.

No it comes back to those two clubs planning wisely. For example, the Storm knew they would lose Slater, Cronk and Cameron Smith and they slowly brought Munster, Papenhuzen and Grant into their squad as ready made successors whilst the Roosters signed Sam Walker in 2019 as they looked for a successor to Cooper Cronk at halfback knowing he would likely retire at the end of that year.

 

[marshall stalin]

6 Again/set restarts do have some affect on games but all teams knew this was coming so pre-season was where this needed to be addressed - training and eliminating these. - Players need to be fitter to play longer minutes perhaps.

This is NSW

As far as the gap goes it's down to development and of course money - the pathway system as they call is seemingly okay standard wise - Harold Matthews/SG Ball/ Jersey Flegg and regional comps - Andrew Johns and Laurie Daley cups.

I think you can still have a quality Jersey Flegg comp without going back to an NYC one and in any case that wont happen again as money killed the NYC off.

The issue is after Jersey Flegg as the reserve grade comp is not a high level/standard one to further development players in and i have read articles where some coaches would rather promote a player from jersey flegg to NRL than play Reserve grade as they say they wont get the necessary development as a player in that comp the way it is now,

NRL clubs have 30 players - 19 involved in NRL each week - 17 playing and 2 reserves - not sure if this 18th player is one of the 2 reserves or another player to make it 20.

That leaves 10 or 11 available for Reserve grade if fit that is - more than half of the reserve grade squad will be made up of part-time/semi pro footballers as well who will be more than supplementing their small football earnings with a full time work or a mixture of work and study.

Unlike the NRL contracted players they would training a couple of times week only i assume.

It would be impossible to have full time players for both your NRL and reserve grade sides as you would need squads of up to 50 or so players - no club could afford it and the game doesn't generate such revenue for that to happen in any case.

 

[davi]

Gus Gould last night stated that the NRL closing down the Holden Cup comp has made some clubs slacker in development then other clubs. Gould has blamed this for some teams pulling further away then other clubs contributing out to the blow out scorelines.

Its hard to know if I think this is a factor or not. I know Gould has been pushing this agenda for a long time of bringing back the Holden Cup. You wouldn't think the Broncos would have a problem with development considering they would have a larger nursery of players then other teams. This is taking into account the good old days where they had the state of QLD to themselves which is well and truly over.

 

[Big Pete]

So I see it as two separate discussions.

There's the general state of the competition and then there's the divide.

The new rules are designed to bring fatigue back into the game by minimising stoppages and dead time. This was seen as a way to 'improve' the game and clean it up but I don't think it's had that effect. If anything it's encouraged teams to break the rules more readily, especially on off-sides, where teams are shooting up out of the line well before the ball has cleared the ruck. We're seeing a lot of cynical football as a result with the game encouraging spoiling tactics.

What we're also seeing is how the rules have affected momentum. There's no real ebb and flow to the game anymore, generally either one team dominates or it's a tale of two halves where one team starts well only to have a barrage of tries put on them.

It's not really engaging football, especially when teams put their foot off the accelerator well before full-time and still win easily. Fatigue actually has a negative effect because the dominant team can't be bothered playing the full 80 knowing they have the game wrapped up with 30 to go. However the bottom teams are so mentally shot by that point they can't mount a fight-back.

That was largely the case last season and it's carried on through to here. I think last season was an anamoly with how restrictive Covid was and it really threw up some crazy results. If you were on top than you were virtually unstoppable because there was hardly anything to break up your momentum and conversley if you were struggling things would get ugly.

I think that will begin to ease as the competition goes on and we start to see teams get a better feel for the meta of the game. I think right now we're still seeing a lot of experimentation with different moulds of players and teams will continue to copy from the top teams.

With the divide I think it's largely due to the hangover of Covid. There's always going to be struggling teams, but typically you see a lot more movement in the player market and there's usually a dozen blue chip prospects clubs call in that give them that edge they need. With no reserve grade, the struggling teams are finding it a lot more difficult to bounce back which is really unfair on a lot of the new coaches.

I'm not sure what the record is, but the introduction of five new coaches has to be a record. They're trying to implement changes with players that don't fit their system and they don't have the breathing room they'd like to effect those changes. I do think in some cases they'll get better as the season goes on but it's a much bigger ask than in years previous.

I don't necessarily think it's the rules themselves, just the way that they were brought in that has seen the game suffer.

 

[big hit!]

6 Again/set restarts do have some affect on games but all teams knew this was coming so pre-season was where this needed to be addressed - training and eliminating these. - Players need to be fitter to play longer minutes perhaps.

This is NSW

As far as the gap goes it's down to development and of course money - the pathway system as they call is seemingly okay standard wise - Harold Matthews/SG Ball/ Jersey Flegg and regional comps - Andrew Johns and Laurie Daley cups.

I think you can still have a quality Jersey Flegg comp without going back to an NYC one and in any case that wont happen again as money killed the NYC off.

The issue is after Jersey Flegg as the reserve grade comp is not a high level/standard one to further development players in and i have read articles where some coaches would rather promote a player from jersey flegg to NRL than play Reserve grade as they say they wont get the necessary development as a player in that comp the way it is now,

NRL clubs have 30 players - 19 involved in NRL each week - 17 playing and 2 reserves - not sure if this 18th player is one of the 2 reserves or another player to make it 20.

That leaves 10 or 11 available for Reserve grade if fit that is - more than half of the reserve grade squad will be made up of part-time/semi pro footballers as well who will be more than supplementing their small football earnings with a full time work or a mixture of work and study.

Unlike the NRL contracted players they would training a couple of times week only i assume.

It would be impossible to have full time players for both your NRL and reserve grade sides as you would need squads of up to 50 or so players - no club could afford it and the game doesn't generate such revenue for that to happen in any case.

Part-timers will still be attending organised training 3 days per week. They're in the system hoping to still be recognised and get a shot.

Yes, the bulk of active players in NSW Cup are part-timers who have missed out on an NRL contract. That's why coaches would possibly look at Flegg instead. However, it's all about next-man up isn't it? I'd say the better Flegg boys are playing in Cup too (e.g., Sam Walker and Suaalii for Bears), and if required for injuries. Given all the injuries to the knights for example, they would be lucky to have one or two NRL contracted players in their Cup team this weekend, so they would need to be made up of a mixture of part-time contract Cup players and Flegg boys, so it must still be seen as an important comp for the next step at these clubs.

Part-timers and Flegg train in their own group, and probably just come together with NRL contracted players for a captains run of the next day's cup game, given the NRL guys train during day.

 

[Knight76]

No it comes back to those two clubs planning wisely. For example, the Storm knew they would lose Slater, Cronk and Cameron Smith and they slowly brought Munster, Papenhuzen and Grant into their squad as ready made successors whilst the Roosters signed Sam Walker in 2019 as they looked for a successor to Cooper Cronk at halfback knowing he would likely retire at the end of that year.

Sure, astute planning definitely helps, never said it didn't.

But when these clubs go looking for talent, whether it be at the top end or some young pup coming through the grades at a club or interstate, overseas etc, they have the bargaining power to say hey, come here and we can make you a star!

That means they get a nice selection of quality coming through. Other clubs that can't attract on those grounds, need to use money as an incentive and that means their cap does not go as far.

But I have no doubt, astute management certainly plays a big role also.

 

[age.s]

People blaming the rules for the blowouts are forgetting that this isn't the first season with the rule changes. They came into effect in 2020 and we didn't see this trend playing out. Yes Brisbane were getting smashed routinely, but the rest of the bottom 4 regularly put up a fight against better teams. Eg, Souths getting beaten by the Dogs, Manly beating the Eels and both they and the Cows went close against top 8 sides a few times as well. Brisbane aside, the F/A of the bottom 4 was comparable to previous years as well. If the rules were the problem they would have been a problem last year too.

The issue is that the bottom 4 have gotten worse (or at least started the season worse). The most obvious candidate is the lack of 2nd tier footy last year. It makes sense (intuitively at least) that the bottom quartile of the competition would be weaker than usual when all rungs below it had basically no footy the year before. I think the gap will close somewhat in the coming months.

 

[marshall stalin]

Part-timers will still be attending organised training 3 days per week. They're in the system hoping to still be recognised and get a shot.

Yes, the bulk of active players in NSW Cup are part-timers who have missed out on an NRL contract. That's why coaches would possibly look at Flegg instead. However, it's all about next-man up isn't it? I'd say the better Flegg boys are playing in Cup too (e.g., Sam Walker and Suaalii for Bears), and if required for injuries. Given all the injuries to the knights for example, they would be lucky to have one or two NRL contracted players in their Cup team this weekend, so they would need to be made up of a mixture of part-time contract Cup players and Flegg boys, so it must still be seen as an important comp for the next step at these clubs.

Part-timers and Flegg train in their own group, and probably just come together with NRL contracted players for a captains run of the next day's cup game, given the NRL guys train during day.

People blaming the rules for the blowouts are forgetting that this isn't the first season with the rule changes. They came into effect in 2020 and we didn't see this trend playing out. Yes Brisbane were getting smashed routinely, but the rest of the bottom 4 regularly put up a fight against better teams. Eg, Souths getting beaten by the Dogs, Manly beating the Eels and both they and the Cows went close against top 8 sides a few times as well. Brisbane aside, the F/A of the bottom 4 was comparable to previous years as well. If the rules were the problem they would have been a problem last year too.

The issue is that the bottom 4 have gotten worse (or at least started the season worse). The most obvious candidate is the lack of 2nd tier footy last year. It makes sense (intuitively at least) that the bottom quartile of the competition would be weaker than usual when all rungs below it had basically no footy the year before. I think the gap will close somewhat in the coming months.

There was no reggies for any of the NSW teams and i presume for similar comps in QLD in 2021 - I game only so if this was a factor it would affect all 16 teams the same?

Teams knew these rules were coming in so maybe they didn't modify their pre-season training to better cope with this - or better still ways to reduce giving away set restarts and penalties. - players need to be better prepared to play longer minutes under fatigue.

 

[Marshall_magic]

I would rather watch talented teams play good, free flowing footy, than watch terrible teams shithouse results because the rules allow them too. I’d rather watch a game with 10 tries scored that is open and end to end, decided by the skills on display than a game with 4 tries decided by who can slow the ruck down more efficiently and/or underhandedly.

 

[Pete Cash]

I kinda like shitty teams being able to rag the good teams lol. Maybe it's because I've largely supported crappy teams in the NRL era but giving the bad teams an avenue to upset the good ones has its pros and cons

 

[typicalfan]

People blaming the rules for the blowouts are forgetting that this isn't the first season with the rule changes. They came into effect in 2020 and we didn't see this trend playing out. Yes Brisbane were getting smashed routinely, but the rest of the bottom 4 regularly put up a fight against better teams. Eg, Souths getting beaten by the Dogs, Manly beating the Eels and both they and the Cows went close against top 8 sides a few times as well. Brisbane aside, the F/A of the bottom 4 was comparable to previous years as well. If the rules were the problem they would have been a problem last year too.

The issue is that the bottom 4 have gotten worse (or at least started the season worse). The most obvious candidate is the lack of 2nd tier footy last year. It makes sense (intuitively at least) that the bottom quartile of the competition would be weaker than usual when all rungs below it had basically no footy the year before. I think the gap will close somewhat in the coming months.

Pretty much this, really is too much of a gulf to be put down to one thing. The lack of wrestle does seem to affect some teams ability to hold on.

 

[The_Frog]

There was no reggies for any of the NSW teams and i presume for similar comps in QLD in 2021 - I game only so if this was a factor it would affect all 16 teams the same?

Teams that are losing every week are more likely to bring in players from reserve grade.