The Case for Adelaide.....

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

I saw this in another thread.

Melbourne rated 33k on GEM last night, 32k Sunday two weeks ago. Average NRL rating for Melbourne is about 17k, and 11k for games not involving Melbourne.

Swans v GWS rated 50k on 7mate too.

These figures arent too bad for live sport - Adelaide and Perth rated 5-12k generally for the NRL. Brisbane and Sydney 20-30k for the AFL without local teams, in the 40s for QLD teams and anywhere up to 70 odd for the Swans.

How much money would Ch9 make from airing a program that averages 11k-17k in a major metropolitan area over 2 hours in a prime time slot?

I imagine it wouldn't be enough to recoup the production costs and money spent on the TV deal.

A 9th game each round will only work if the 17th licence is given to Bris 2 and the 18th licence is awarded to NZ2. That will allow Foxtel to screen a game from NZ each Sunday at 2pm AEST, followed by the 4pm and 6pm games. Super Saturday = 3 games. Super Sunday = 3 games. There's no other timeslot available unless the broadcasters wish to play the 9th game at the same time as another one, and they're not going to pay extra for that.

Perth and Adelaide do not offer any timeslots that will appeal to Ch9 and Foxtel, and we need these two companies to give us more money to cover the cost of the 2 new teams. It would be insane to start new teams in Adelaide and Perth, knowing that neither team will bring any money into the game and will take at least $46 million out of the NRL each year..

 

[titoelcolombiano]

Swans v GWS (two Sydney AFL clubs) rating 50k in a city of 5.23 million (1% viewership) that has had top flight AFL for nearly 40 years is way more piss poor than Adelaide and Perth getting 12k with no NRL team at all in cities of 1.3 million (also 1% viewership) and 1.9 million (0.5% viewership) respectively

 

[Mr Angry]

They got an Origin, hopefully they show up.

 

[Perth Red]

Swans v GWS (two Sydney AFL clubs) rating 50k in a city of 5.23 million (1% viewership) that has had top flight AFL for nearly 40 years is way more piss poor than Adelaide and Perth getting 12k with no NRL team at all in cities of 1.3 million (also 1% viewership) and 1.9 million (0.5% viewership) respectively

TBh most fans watching on TV are neutrals and are tuning in depending on their perception of how good a game its going to be. This notion that the clubs are the ones whose fans are tuning in simply isnt true, as evidenced by the consistent ratings across tv slots for different clubs. Storm are in the top three viewed clubs on TV, yet the Melbourne audience is tiny. TV doesn't care the Melbourne audience is tiny, they care that across the areas its is being shown on main channel and on PTV they are very heavily watched. Any club in any location can be the same if they are well run, performing well, have talented players and of interest to the wider RL community.

For the umpteenth time the value of expansion for TV is not in a single club, regardless of location, but in a ninth game to add extra content to sell. Ch9 has not demanded another Brisbane club in the last 3 TV deals. that's how much value they think it will add to their bottom line.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Swans v GWS (two Sydney AFL clubs) rating 50k in a city of 5.23 million (1% viewership) that has had top flight AFL for nearly 40 years is way more piss poor than Adelaide and Perth getting 12k with no NRL team at all in cities of 1.3 million (also 1% viewership) and 1.9 million (0.5% viewership) respectively

Those ratings prove there's little to be gained from expanding into Adelaide and Perth. Relocating 2 Sydney clubs that still have a fanbase in their heartland, to Adelaide and Perth, would surely be less expensive and better for ratings than starting 2 new clubs that won't rate any where in the country.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

We don't know what goes on behind closed doors. Ch9 could be pressing the ARLC to add a second Brisbane team, but the 16 clubs might say no because it will dilute the player pool.

Ch9 is on record saying they've always wanted a 2nd team in Brisbane.

There is no timeslot for a ninth game unless Monday night football is brought back.

The only way a 9th game can be introduced without bringing back Monday football is to add a 2nd NZ and Brisbane 2. Warriors and NZ 2 would play their home games at 4pm Sunday NZST, allowing Foxtel to screen 3 games on a Sunday from 2pm, 4pm and 6pm.

 

[greenBV4]

Ch9 is on record saying they've always wanted a 2nd team in Brisbane.

personally I wouldn't mind a Sunday night slot, would give fox a "super sunday" as well as super saturday

 

[The Great Dane]

Those ratings prove there's little to be gained from expanding into Adelaide and Perth. Relocating 2 Sydney clubs that still have a fanbase in their heartland, to Adelaide and Perth, would surely be less expensive and better for ratings than starting 2 new clubs that won't rate any where in the country.

The NRL rates poorly in Perth and Adelaide because they can't build a fan base because they don't have teams of their own to support, but they can't have teams of their own because the NRL rates poorly in those cities.

What convenient circular logic!

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Putting teams in Adelaide and Perth isn't going to create a massive RL fanbase in those two fumbleball obsessed cities. We know this because the Storm, despite their unprecedented success on the field over the last 22 years, are still a basketcase on Melbournian TV. Ditto Swans in Sydney and Lions in Brisbane for AwFuL, although to a lesser extent.

I'll repost a couple of comments from The_Wookie, just to prove my point.

Melbourne rated 33k on GEM last night, 32k Sunday two weeks ago. Average NRL rating for Melbourne is about 17k, and 11k for games not involving Melbourne.

Swans v GWS rated 50k on 7mate too.

These figures arent too bad for live sport - Adelaide and Perth rated 5-12k generally for the NRL. Brisbane and Sydney 20-30k for the AFL without local teams, in the 40s for QLD teams and anywhere up to 70 odd for the Swans.

 

[The Great Dane]

Putting teams in Adelaide and Perth isn't going to create a massive RL fanbase in those two fumbleball obsessed cities. We know this because the Storm, despite their unprecedented success on the field over the last 22 years, are still a basketcase on Melbournian TV. Ditto Swans in Sydney and Lions in Brisbane for AwFuL, although to a lesser extent.

I'll repost a couple of comments from The_Wookie, just to prove my point.

I love it when you "prove" your point lol.

Presenting the numbers totally out of context isn't interesting in the slightest.
What they have grown from and what they could potentially grow into is what is interesting.

17k, for example, may seem like a small number, but when that number has grown from what we can reasonably assume was practically zero in just 20 years that's monumental growth, and if that growth continues at a reasonable rate then in a few generations those numbers could grow into numbers that were unthinkable when the Storm were first introduced 20 years ago.

Put simply that is real growth, real expansion if you will, and not just of the Telstra Premiership, but of the sport as a whole, that adds long term value that simply wouldn't be possible if the Storm didn't exist.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

An average of 11,000 people watching in Melbourne when the Storm aren't playing is right in line with the numbers from Adelaide and Perth.

There is no guarantee that a massive fanbase will develop in these cities after they've had a team for 80-100 years. RU has been around a bloody long time in Brisbane and Sydney but still doesn't rate.

3,500 registered players in Victoria after 22 years of the Storm belting their opponents is negligible growth. Only 3 of those 3,500 have worked their way into grade, but were cut because they weren't any good, and are regularly thumped by WA in the Affiliates Shield, or whatever it is called. Most of the people playing in Victoria weren't even born there and are from RL states/countries.

Where's the money going to come from to fund these teams?

Broadcasters won't pay for them and they make up the bulk of the game's revenue. There are no sugar daddies putting their hand out.

The only realistic option is to get the WA Gov to strike a lucrative deal with a Sydney club, similar to what North Melbourne and Hawthorn did in Tasmania. Perhaps Tigers could become the Western Tigers and take half of their home games to Perth. The 2 biggest clubs in Perth don't use the city's name, so Western will work. The Reds drew their highest crowds when they were the Western Reds.

 

[LeagueXIII]

I think you should check some of your points on Victoria, they won both the mens and womens affiliated states comp in 2019.

 

[LeagueXIII]

An average of 11,000 people watching in Melbourne when the Storm aren't playing is right in line with the numbers from Adelaide and Perth.

There is no guarantee that a massive fanbase will develop in these cities after they've had a team for 80-100 years. RU has been around a bloody long time in Brisbane and Sydney but still doesn't rate.

3,500 registered players in Victoria after 22 years of the Storm belting their opponents is negligible growth. Only 3 of those 3,500 have worked their way into grade, but were cut because they weren't any good, and are regularly thumped by WA in the Affiliates Shield, or whatever it is called. Most of the people playing in Victoria weren't even born there and are from RL states/countries.

Where's the money going to come from to fund these teams?

Broadcasters won't pay for them and they make up the bulk of the game's revenue. There are no sugar daddies putting their hand out.

The only realistic option is to get the WA Gov to strike a lucrative deal with a Sydney club, similar to what North Melbourne and Hawthorn did in Tasmania. Perhaps Tigers could become the Western Tigers and take half of their home games to Perth. The 2 biggest clubs in Perth don't use the city's name, so Western will work. The Reds drew their highest crowds when they were the Western Reds.

What you will find is happening in Melbourne is the self proclaimed sports capital of the whole universe has finally started to mature and accept outside sports like RL. You will find most people under 25-30 have an open mind to rugby league and take an interest in the Storm, it's the older one's who grew up with a prejudice against league.
This first generation of league fans will grow and grow once they have children etc etc.

 

[greenBV4]

What you will find is happening in Melbourne is the self proclaimed sports capital of the whole universe has finally started to mature and accept outside sports like RL. You will find most people under 25-30 have an open mind to rugby league and take an interest in the Storm, it's the older one's who grew up with a prejudice against league.
This first generation of league fans will grow and grow once they have children etc etc.

This

Also I know TV is important but only looking at TV glosses over the fact that storm are in the top 4 for both crowd averages and memberships

This is a better metric of the number of "dedicated" fans, the ones spending money on the club rather than just flicking over the channel

Take of it what you will but the club a few years back also claimed the second largest social media following of any sports club in aus (behind collingwood)

They are also one the few clubs now who break even and without the reliance of pokies

To claim the club isnt supported or successful by narrowing your criteria to just one metric (which as others have pointed out is still growth anyway) is lunacy

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

What you will find is happening in Melbourne is the self proclaimed sports capital of the whole universe has finally started to mature and accept outside sports like RL. You will find most people under 25-30 have an open mind to rugby league and take an interest in the Storm, it's the older one's who grew up with a prejudice against league.
This first generation of league fans will grow and grow once they have children etc etc.

Attendances at Melbourne Rectangular Arena are made up of expatriates and fumbleball fans who've adopted the Storm as their second team. Many of them go watch the fumbleball at The G, then go watch the Storm afterwards. There's no way they would choose the Storm over their AwFuL club should the two be playing at the same time. They will have their kids playing fumbleball and dreaming of playing at The G in a fumbleflag for the AwFuL club that's been supported by daddy and grandpa.

Storm's attendances are quite weak when you factor in that the Lions were drawing more people through the gates at the Gabba with a team that was at the foot of the ladder for the bulk of the last 15 years, despite being in a city half the size of Melbourne. No team in Australia has enjoyed as much success on the field as the Melbourne Storm, yet the Melbourne Victory soccer club still get more people through the gates, despite having 2 other clubs in the same city competing with them for support in a 4th rate competition that no one cares about.

Victoria has the Aus Open, yet it hasn't produced a Grand Slam winner in decades. Our last four Grand Slam winners were Barty (QLD), Stosur (QLD), Hewitt (SA) and Rafter (QLD).

If Melbourne cannot produce a decent tennis player, despite having a Grand Slan played there every year, what hope is there of convincing kids down there to pick up a Steeden?

Shane Warne wanted to play fumbleball for St Kilda but didn't make the grade, so he went back to cricket. It makes you wonder how many Shane Warnes were accepted into the AwFuL and denied other sports from benefiting from their skills.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

This

Also I know TV is important but only looking at TV glosses over the fact that storm are in the top 4 for both crowd averages and memberships

This is a better metric of the number of "dedicated" fans, the ones spending money on the club rather than just flicking over the channel

Take of it what you will but the club a few years back also claimed the second largest social media following of any sports club in aus (behind collingwood)

They are also one the few clubs now who break even and without the reliance of pokies

To claim the club isnt supported or successful by narrowing your criteria to just one metric (which as others have pointed out is still growth anyway) is lunacy

See my post to League XIII.

You don't seriously believe the Storm have a wider following than the Donkeys, do you?

Donkeys would have far more fans on social media and are probably the largest and most powerful club in the country.

I will believe Melbourne are solvent and widely accepted by the Melbournian public when they go through a lean patch but still draw crowds. Too many shenanigans have been pulled by this club throughout its existence to believe anything they say.

I didn't limit the criteria to one measurement. I pointed out that TV ratings and participation rates for the game in Melbourne are lightyears behind AwFuL in Brisbane and Sydney, which are already low despite being around for 33 and 40 years and producing quality fumbleballers long before they had a team in the VFL.

 

[The Great Dane]

There is no guarantee that a massive fanbase will develop in these cities after they've had a team for 80-100 years. RU has been around a bloody long time in Brisbane and Sydney but still doesn't rate.

There are no guarantees for anything in life, not even that a second club in Brisbane will be well supported.

The fact that you think the sport will struggle to attract fans in non-traditional markets shows that you have extremely little faith in the product, and is blatantly false given the growth the sport has seen in Melbourne; if it can work in Melbourne then it can work in Adelaide or Perth.

3,500 registered players in Victoria after 22 years of the Storm belting their opponents is negligible growth. Only 3 of those 3,500 have worked their way into grade, but were cut because they weren't any good, and are regularly thumped by WA in the Affiliates Shield, or whatever it is called. Most of the people playing in Victoria weren't even born there and are from RL states/countries.

So you're seriously trying to tell me the fact that in 20 years participation in Victoria has gone from practically nothing to 3.5k, and growing, is a bad thing!?

It's going to take generations to build those fanbases up, but they are growing and given time they can become huge, especially if both the Storm and NRL pulled their fingers out of their arses and invested in the local grassroots.

Where's the money going to come from to fund these teams?

The same place that it comes from for all expansion teams in the NSWRL/ARL/NRL's history; mainly from the investors behind the consortium that wins the license, with a bit chucked in from the NRL and local government in grants and subsidies.

Broadcasters won't pay for them and they make up the bulk of the game's revenue.

You don't know that the Broadcasters won't pay more for it, it'd also be be incredibly strange for them to turn down more content from a product that is so successful.
There's also basically no value in expansion unless it adds extra content (i.e. an extra game each week), so if they want 17 then 18 is inevitable.

Before you say it, Gyngell saying he wants a second Brisbane team a decade ago, A. doesn't mean that he had no interest in any other expansion opportunities, B. doesn't mean jack shit now that he has gone and so much has changed, and C. says nothing of the opinions of the other broadcasters.

There are no sugar daddies putting their hand out.

The Pirates are one of the better backed bids financially, they are definitely better backed than most of the Brisbane bids.
They have at least two very rich men willing to throw money at them, other business men that are interested in supporting the club, multiple blue chip sponsors lined up, etc, etc.

So in other words, yeah there are 'sugar daddies' lined up to back a Perth based team, and the fact that you suggest otherwise just shows how ignorant, or bias, you are about the subject.

The only realistic option is to get the WA Gov to strike a lucrative deal with a Sydney club, similar to what North Melbourne and Hawthorn did in Tasmania. Perhaps Tigers could become the Western Tigers and take half of their home games to Perth. The 2 biggest clubs in Perth don't use the city's name, so Western will work. The Reds drew their highest crowds when they were the Western Reds.

Pfft, those Tasmanian deals are going great for the AFL...

The Tasmanian government and fans are jack of the AFL stringing them along, and for the most part f**king hate the organisation, and are demanding a club of their own. In other words the deals have done more damage than good at this point.

Besides none of the Sydney clubs would agree to it, and those deals always end up turning sour and alienating swaths of the potential fan base

 

[The Great Dane]

See my post to League XIII.

You don't seriously believe the Storm have a wider following than the Donkeys, do you?

Donkeys would have far more fans on social media and are probably the largest and most powerful club in the country.

I will believe Melbourne are solvent and widely accepted by the Melbournian public when they go through a lean patch but still draw crowds. Too many shenanigans have been pulled by this club throughout its existence to believe anything they say.

Until this year the Broncos have never gone through a lean patch, should we wait and see how they are impacted by it before expanding in Brisbane?

I didn't limit the criteria to one measurement. I pointed out that TV ratings and participation rates for the game in Melbourne are lightyears behind AwFuL in Brisbane and Sydney, which are already low despite being around for 33 and 40 years and producing quality fumbleballers long before they had a team in the VFL.

So you won't accept any evidence unless it comes from your chosen metric LOL.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

Why do some people keep pretending RL was not played in Victoria before the Storm came around?

Our History
A Humble Beginning
Founded in 1987, Altona Roosters began as a collusion between players from former strong clubs from the 1950s & 1960s such as Point cook, Laverton, & RAAF Laverton. Laverton were Still competing in the Melbourne Rugby league competition (as it was known then) as late at 1990 and won the MRL premiership in 1988.

Altona Roosters won its first premiership in 1997 when it broke a 2 year streak for a St Kilda Saints Rugby League side that would return to winning ways the following year to begin another steak of 5 grand final victories in a row.

It wasnt until 2003 that Altona Roosters claimed their second premiership after finishing runner-up to the soon-to-be defunct St Kilda Saints in the previous season.

https://altonaroosters.com.au/pages/our-history​

So the game has been played in Melbourne for at least 60 to 70 years, and despite having the most dominate RL team in recent history, they only have 3,500 players.

The Pirates don't have a sugar daddy. Their bid is headed by Peter Cumins, who was part of the Western Reds team that went bust after their first season and had to be bailed out by News Ltd. Their bid has very little substance and has little public support. When the NRL 9s were in Perth the bid team said they would go to Perth Oval to survey interest. A tiny crowd turned out over the 2 days.

Only the craziest of crazies would delude themselves into thinking Ch9 would want a team in a city that won't bother watching it. Not once have the owners of that network said they want a team in Perth or Adelaide, but they did say a 2nd Brisbane team will add money to the broadcast deal. It's just as crazy to think any other network would want a team there, especially when the highest rating network is against it.

The ARLC would need an extra $23 million a year to fund the salary cap ($10 million) and annual grant ($13 million) for a Perth team. Only the craziest of crazies could be silly enough to think the broadcasters will throw that much money at a team for Perth when it will not generate that sort of revenue for them, especially now that the networks are struggling.

If a 9th game was so important then PVL would add it. He's not because the broadcasters have said they don't want a 9th game.

Broncos missed the 8 in 2010 and 2013. The last time they won the competition was 2006.

 

[Perth Red]

I love it when you "prove" your point lol.

Presenting the numbers totally out of context isn't interesting in the slightest.
What they have grown from and what they could potentially grow into is what is interesting.

17k, for example, may seem like a small number, but when that number has grown from what we can reasonably assume was practically zero in just 20 years that's monumental growth, and if that growth continues at a reasonable rate then in a few generations those numbers could grow into numbers that were unthinkable when the Storm were first introduced 20 years ago.

Put simply that is real growth, real expansion if you will, and not just of the Telstra Premiership, but of the sport as a whole, that adds long term value that simply wouldn't be possible if the Storm didn't exist.

storm in gf’s draws 400k audiences in melbourne, soo and gf draws 100k audiences in perth and adelaide when on main channel. Putting games in a secondary digital channel kills the ratings. The avg audience for all shows on secondary channel is sub 50k.
What we could really do with is a survey of fox and kayo subscribers and see what those numbers are for the expansion states. That would be more interesting to see, any rl fan worth their salt signed up to fox ten years ago when we used to get nrl on at midnight in Ch9!