The Run Home

[Cold Roses]

We're safe there, Tigers for and against us gash

Doesn't hurt to widen the gap even more though. As well as the obvious loss helping us.

Besides, I sort of dislike the Tigers. For a few irrational reasons not worth mentioning

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Yeah true, always good to have breathing space.

 

[LeagueNut]

Just had a go at the Ladder Predictor. Had us finishing in 8th spot on 30 points, with the Panthers in 7th also on 30 points (but they're likely to overtake our F/A due to having an easier run home). Titans came in 9th on 28 points.

Next week vs Titans is so bloody crucial for us. The Titans also play at home vs the Panthers in Round 25.

For me it comes down to three teams (Warriors, Panthers, Titans) for the last two spots in the 8. I don't see any of the other fringe teams getting close.

 

[Blair]

Just had a go at the Ladder Predictor. Had us finishing in 8th spot on 30 points, with the Panthers in 7th also on 30 points (but they're likely to overtake our F/A due to having an easier run home). Titans came in 9th on 28 points.

Next week vs Titans is so bloody crucial for us. The Titans also play at home vs the Panthers in Round 25.

For me it comes down to three teams (Warriors, Panthers, Titans) for the last two spots in the 8. I don't see any of the other fringe teams getting close.

If we can forget about our coach for a minute (and whether or not making the finals will save his job) I'd grab 8th (9th) in a jiffy. It's finals footy, anything can happen.

We've got plenty of old hands who've been there before and can use that experience and we've got young'uns who will bloody love being there for the first time and will do their best, even if it doesn't last very long.

(If you want to take the above paragraph as a sexual metaphor then go for it).

Bringing our coach back into it, did he play finals footy with Canberra?

 

[Big Marn]

Bringing our coach back into it, did he play finals footy with Canberra?

yes part of the super mac team with mclinden that finished 4th in 2000. they eventually got owned by roosters in preliminary final

 

[Leber]

sharks away Lose (correct)
Tits at home Win (correct)
Bye
Manly away Win. (wrong)
Raiders away Lose (Correct)
Panthers home Win (Correct)
Tits away Lose
Soufs home Win
cowboys away Lose
Tigers home Win
Eels at home Win

Winning our three home games and losing our two away games will see us finish 8th. Adding a win to the titans, that will see us finish 7th. We need to win all 5 games in order to finish 6th.

 

[JJ]

Wish they'd go to 5 team playoffs tbh

 

[Izz]

I can see Brisbane dropping out of the 8 on current form. Haven't looked at their draw though

 

[SpaceMonkey]

I can see Brisbane dropping out of the 8 on current form. Haven't looked at their draw though

St George (a), Parra (h), Canterbury (h), Melbourne (a), Roosters (h). +64 differential too so 2 wins should see them into the 8, which you think they'd manage. Might drop a place or two though.

I think everyone down to 6 is probably in, just the last two spots up for grabs from 4 teams (Titans, Panthers, Warriors, Tigers) Tigers lousy differential probably means they need 4 wins to make it though. And given they've got the Cows, Titans, Panthers, Roosters and Raiders, that's a tough ask.
I think realistically it's out of Titans us or Penrith for the last two spots. Hopefully the Sharks hammer the Titans tomorrow to peg their differential back near ours.
The other interesting question is who takes 3rd/4th, I can see the cows dropping out of the 4 if Thurston doesn't play.

 

[Beavers Headgear]

Don't think we will make it, but sniffing around just a win behind the pack now with Parra on Friday night

Can see that Tigers v Warriors game being a good one and very crucial

 

[Blair]

Don't think we will make it, but sniffing around just a win behind the pack now with Parra on Friday night

Can see that Tigers v Warriors game being a good one and very crucial

For and Against is shaping up as crucial for finals spots. You had the Knights at 36-0 in the 49th minute but let them score the next 16. At -40 you're probably more than "just a win behind the pack."

 

[Beavers Headgear]

True, but from -17 a 10pt loss above and a 10pt win from us changes that extremely quickly

 

[SpaceMonkey]

Realistically Manly and the Tigers need 4 wins minimum. You'd assume that of the Warriors, Titans and Panthers at least two teams will win 3/5 or better, and the Tigers need one more win due to differential, as so Manly due to being 2 points back. The Dragons are also still a mathematical chance but both their form and differential are awful so I think you can safely scratch them.

Basically 1-6 are pretty much there
Titans, Warriors, Panthers need 3 wins to make it
Tigers and Manly need 4
Dragons need 5

That's assuming that the cut off for the 8 will be 28 points and a reasonable points differential.

Everyone else can get ready for mad Monday now.

 

[Meth]

12-6 at HT between the Sharks and the Titans. Obviously, we want the Sharks to win by as much as possible, but there's hardly a chance we take over them on P/D tonight.

Obviously we want to beat the Titans this week. Also, we want the Roosters to beat the Panthers (unlikely) and the Cowboys to beat the Tigers. I am thinking we want the Dragons to beat the Broncos and the Eels to beat the Sea Eagles.

 

[SpaceMonkey]

12-6 at HT between the Sharks and the Titans. Obviously, we want the Sharks to win by as much as possible, but there's hardly a chance we take over them on P/D tonight.

Obviously we want to beat the Titans this week. Also, we want the Roosters to beat the Panthers (unlikely) and the Cowboys to beat the Tigers. I am thinking we want the Dragons to beat the Broncos and the Eels to beat the Sea Eagles.

Yes to all of those. If Cronulla win by just a reasonable margin that gets is to the point where a win will likely mean we pass the Titans +/-, as well as get a 2 point jump on them.

 

[Philip_Smith007]

Yes to all of those. If Cronulla win by just a reasonable margin that gets is to the point where a win will likely mean we pass the Titans +/-, as well as get a 2 point jump on them.

And Hurrell just didn't help that cause!
Titans go up 18-12 20mins to go.
Needed a Sharks win by 34+

 

[Philip_Smith007]

Wow, Draw for Titans after 90mins.
So have to win to go in front of them next week.
Hope the 90mins takes it more out of them with a shorter turn around that us, pitty they don't have to go over to Auckland!

 

[TheDMC]

Guys I think you just need to stop over analyzing and realize the hard cold truth that we will miss the finals by a cats whisker.

 

[Penrose Warrior]

Both the Panthers and Titans have the Knights, although the Titans earning a draw means F&A means jack all to us (unless of course we go into GP again this year some time). The Panthers have them in Newcastle, so you'd think the Knights will put up a bit more resistance there.

I reckon us and Penrith will finish on 28 points, then it's purely down to points diff. Which sets up better for the Panthers, you'd think.

 

[JJ]

Not sure there's any great merit in scraping in, perhaps for the Titans who were expected to be Newcastle like, but we were expected to be good