The T.V Rights Thread Part III

[ParraEelsNRL]

Also, even though the salary cap will substantially increase, it still won't be enough to match offers from European Rugby. They have far more money up their sleeves than nearly all NRL clubs

Only because of rich owners.

Their TV deals aren't even close to our current one.

 

[docbrown]

It's who will blink first! Will the NRL risk taking a short term (big) hit for long term gain or will Fox know they can offer unders and it will be accepted. I get the feeling if Fox thought we would have the balls to dump them then they would not dare risk it. I am not convinced we are financially strong enough yet to call their bluff.

They could still pull in something around $180 million+ a year for a F2A & Internet deal for 2 years which would give Foxtel enough time to feel the impact. That deal would still be double the current deal.

Meanwhile Foxtel/Austar would be losing about $250 million+ bare minimum a year in subscriptions and advertising.

LEK have already prepared an impact assessment which will be presented to Foxtel during negotiations.

 

[Perth Red]

and if the subscription rates don't drop dramatically? I know I would want to drop Fox if they lost NRL but the wife would want to keep it for the stuff she watches. We might go for a cheaper package but many will just shrug and figure they can't be bothered to change it.

It's a gamble for sure, win and the pay day is great, lose and we could be shooting ourselves in both feet.

 

[griff]

LEK have already prepared an impact assessment which will be presented to Foxtel during negotiations.

That would make very interesting reading.

I think what a lot of people don't appreciate is that NRL doesn't just drive subscriptions in NSW and Qld, but across Australia.

In the last 5 or 10 years the number of people moving from RL states to Perth and Melbourne in particular has increased substantially. A lot of them get Foxtel because the FTA coverage of RL is so poor it's their only way of keeping in touch.

 

[nqboy]

I'll cancel Austar in a heartbeat if they lose the NRL.

 

[kurt faulk]

They could still pull in something around $180 million+ a year for a F2A & Internet deal for 2 years which would give Foxtel enough time to feel the impact. That deal would still be double the current deal.

Meanwhile Foxtel/Austar would be losing about $250 million+ bare minimum a year in subscriptions and advertising.

LEK have already prepared an impact assessment which will be presented to Foxtel during negotiations.

i don't think league is going to be pushed around ever again. they will be calling the shots from now on.

foxtel know what they have and know what will happen if they don't have it, which is why murdoch bought the sport for his pay tv introduction into nsw and qld.

they can say whatever they want to say but in the end they will pay up.

.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Also, even though the salary cap will substantially increase, it still won't be enough to match offers from European Rugby. They have far more money up their sleeves than nearly all NRL clubs

One question - how?

Does anyone even watch rugby in Europe? They are competing with the world sporting behemoth (soccer) and a couple of their domestic competitions - Premier League and Serie A are both in rugby nations - are world class, while the Ligue 1 (France) is in the top 5 football leagues in the world.

There can't be that many private school kids in Europe boosting rugby's viewership and attendence numbers can there?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Only because of rich owners.

Ah. Thanks.

 

[El Diablo]

if they think that the NRL won't drive up subscriptions further then why the hell do they keep showing the 5 live ad on TV all the f**king time?

must be costing them a fortune as i see it every ad break in Ten news

if they had 8 live and another Brisbane team then subscriptions would increase even more

 

[docbrown]

and if the subscription rates don't drop dramatically? I know I would want to drop Fox if they lost NRL but the wife would want to keep it for the stuff she watches. We might go for a cheaper package but many will just shrug and figure they can't be bothered to change it.

It's a gamble for sure, win and the pay day is great, lose and we could be shooting ourselves in both feet.

LEK disagree but either way the NRL could still more than double their current deal with F2A and internet only.

Remember it's not just about subscriptions - it's also about advertising revenue and the NRL drives that too.

if they had 8 live and another Brisbane team then subscriptions would increase even more

That's the plan.

Cut through the rest of the nonsense and you will realise that Foxtel can't reach 50% without every NRL game live and ad free. Nothing else will achieve that result.

From day one Murdoch has been positioning both 10 & Premier Group to get the simulcast set up to achieve two goals: steal 9's ad revenue and shift it to 10 whilst boosting the STV take up in NSW & QLD. By controlling a F2A network and bidding together he can achieve the Foxtel goal moreso than if he were to try and convince 9 to simulcast.

Everything else PMG puts out trying to lower the deal value is just a whitewash.

 

[Brutus]

That would make very interesting reading.

I think what a lot of people don't appreciate is that NRL doesn't just drive subscriptions in NSW and Qld, but across Australia.

In the last 5 or 10 years the number of people moving from RL states to Perth and Melbourne in particular has increased substantially. A lot of them get Foxtel because the FTA coverage of RL is so poor it's their only way of keeping in touch.

And ensuring the FTA coverage was poor (ie Storm games shown after midnight) meant that Foxtel benefitted which was something the part owners of our game were obviously keen on.

I believe having DG in the chair only helped News LTD's/Fox's cause.

I always thought there was a methology behind the woeful coverage of the Storm. (of course the AFL influence at Ch 9 was another thing).

 

[Western_Eel]

The thing is that news only owns 50% of fox sports so they will only fork out the cash as long as Consolidated media is willing to match it

 

[Western_Eel]

Does anyone think espn would have a crack at it?

 

[Poupou Escobar]

How about SBS? They could get this bloke to run the commentary.

 

[Canucks]

Murdoch bought into 10 with his own coin, not News Ltd's, is that right? And Packer has sold up his share of Premier..... Something is going down....

 

[Perth Red]

I can see that we will end up with Fox getting every game live and FTA, hopefully Ch10 but could be 9, two Friday games and 2 or 3 Sunday games live. SOO and Tests will go to highest FTA bidder but could well also be live simucast on Fox as part of their drive to get more RL subscribers (they still only rate 1/3rd of FTA TV viewers for RL).
Telstra will get every game live over internet
Naming rights? Probably stay with Telstra unless a big offer comes along from a blue chip company. Maybe a bank? I could see Commonwealth or NAB loking for a major sponsorship to take them to next stage over their rivals.

Hopefully will all add to at least $1bill. Then we can have fun wondering how the ARLC is going to spend it!

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I can see that we will end up with Fox getting every game live and FTA

Well mate, you and I of all people should be hoping that happens.

 

[Perth Red]

I'd have no problem forking out $100 a month for every game live and ad free, especially if they also got ESL games live and all tests live. Even if FTA showed 5 games a week I'd still consider it a worthwhile spend investment not to have to sit through the same ads every 5 minutes!

 

[RLNY]

I would say that if 7 is involved, people should not be worried about Fox underbidding for NRL rights because 7 will step on everyone's toes, including Fox. I think it is either going to get some coverage or 10/Premier is going to blow everyone else out of the water.

 

[bobmar28]

and if the subscription rates don't drop dramatically? I know I would want to drop Fox if they lost NRL but the wife would want to keep it for the stuff she watches. We might go for a cheaper package but many will just shrug and figure they can't be bothered to change it.

It's a gamble for sure, win and the pay day is great, lose and we could be shooting ourselves in both feet.

How is $180 million a year shooting ourselves in both feet?