The T.V Rights Thread Part III

[Dresden Dan]

Is a fluke Mr Kent that NRL has an Origin series to sell on top of the NRL?

How is it that if AFL and NRL are roughly equivalent in ratings & value that league is less $ even though it has an Origin series?

What is Origin worth in tv $ as a standalone?

If a new sport or the ARU or FFA somehow arrived and offered a 3 game series to FTA networks that was comparable to the value of Origin what $ would that get?

Why are NRL not even getting what AFL is when AFL doesn't have 3 games of Origin? Seems league grossly undersells itself.

 

[Karl]

Total Broadcast Rights Value = All cash, contra and other valuable consideration from all sources (Including without limitation Free to Air TV, Pay TV, Online, Mobile etc) relating to Broadcast Rights.

It doesn't matter who it's from, the combinations or splits for different markets etc.

 

[PaddyBoy]

To be fair, I think it's a deliberate thing. I'm pretty sure Andrew Demetriou didn't come out and explicitly say that they were getting the billion up to or during the negotiations (could be wrong). Would just annoy the networks for not that much gain.

 

[El Diablo]

The AFL also benefited through Foxtel's desire to drive subscriptions in its flailing states - Victoria, South Australia and Western Australia.

I still can't believe this comment;

It is nothing but a fluke that they all happen to be AFL states.


It's no fluke. Rugby league, and therefore rugby league states, are driving the pay tv subscriptions. The fact they haven't had the level of new subcriptions they hoped for from afl states only confirms this.

Also;

Given the two major rugby league states, NSW and Queensland, already have a much higher percentage of pay-TV subscriptions, there is less upside for the pay-TV subscriber to compete for the NRL rights.

Really? They didn't mention there is a helluva downside for them though if they don't compete for the NRL rights. I wonder what would happen to their overall subscriptions if they didn't have rugby league.

News Ltd are starting to look desperate & dateless.

Brisbane and Melbourne are pretty much the same in pay TV http://www.oztam.com.au/documents/Other/UEs Metro TV Q1 2012 - 141211.pdf

see page 11

Melbourne on 30.1 percent and Brisbane on 31.9 percent

 

[docbrown]

F2A, Pay TV, Internet, Mobile, Contra for Australia & NZ - $1.0 - $1.1 billion min.

 

[docbrown]

I give it about 2 weeks max before 7 do their thing.

 

[whall15]

A little bit more optimistic than doc, 1.05-1.15 billion.

 

[The Elephant In The room]

Paul Kent told me $8.50 + tax. Not sure if I should believe him though.

 

[Alex28]

Who'd have thunk it - TV has realised the ad revenue isn't there and they aren't going to pay stupid money for the rights.

I told you guys 12 months ago we'll get nowhere near a Billion for the rights...

 

[Ron's_Mate]

I hope it doesn't, but there are a lot of factors that make this a difficult negotiation for the NRL - the financial position of the TV networks (debt and falling earnings), the difficulty leveraging revenue from online, the general financial climate, the AFL's deal being questioned as over the top and unprofitable etc.

Some of the reasons above are exactly what make the NRL rights so valuable. The NRL brings guaranteed viewer numbers who will also tend to stick around and watch whatever else is on the channel. 9 has lived off rugby league for years. Struggling, debt loaded networks need this - how much content is there that will bring a guaranteed number of viewers year after year? It's a safer bet than cooking up some new reality show that people will tire of after a couple of years.

 

[Parra Pride]

Paul Kent told me $8.50 + tax. Not sure if I should believe him though.

If we're lucky, I'd say $6.25 is fairly reasonable.

 

[RLNY]

Ok doc, will 7 break 9's first and last rights?

 

[Everlovin' Antichrist]

8.24 gajillion dollars.

 

[docbrown]

A little bit more optimistic than doc, 1.05-1.15 billion.

Well to be clear, I am saying minimum.

You can add $150-$300 million to that with a real auction, it's the most important part of the value adding process.

I agree with the LEK projections as I have from the start -

$1b - low end
$1.2b - target
$1.4b - high end

My feeling is we will achieve the low end as a minimum which is still a terrific result.

Everybody needs to keep in mind that if we were getting the exact same % increase as last time we'd be getting less than $700 million.

 

[Raiderdave]

Who'd have thunk it - TV has realised the ad revenue isn't there and they aren't going to pay stupid money for the rights.

I told you guys 12 months ago we'll get nowhere near a Billion for the rights...

& we have sucker numb 1 who believes everything he reads ............:lol::lol:

;-)

 

[East Coast Tiger]

I reckon it will be little more than $1b when all the contra and other bullshit is factored in. In terms of actual dollars for TV rights I'd say it will be closer to the $800m mark. Then add maybe $100m for internet rights. Whatever the much anticipated but simplistic figure the devil will actually be in the detail.

 

[docbrown]

& we have sucker numb 1 who believes everything he reads ............:lol::lol:

;-)

It's just a negotiation tactic.

Does anyone seriously expect the networks to come out and say "Oh we're overflowing with cash, we'll bend over and you can take it!"

It's no different to the banks announcing record profits and then crying poor.

 

[docbrown]

Ok doc, will 7 break 9's first and last rights?

I am expecting it to, even moreso if even 5% of Kent's waffle is to be believed.

I've been hoping from the start that they undervalue it from the outset. The talk was a $1 billion security wall for 9 & Foxtel - that being the limit at which 7 & 10 might be off put.

But I've also said that might not be enough. They can still force 9 into paying overs without breaking it.

Don't know if you guys have caught on but I dislike Channel 9, they are bad for rugby league.

 

[Mr Angry]

1.21 gigwatts

 

[Canucks]

How funny is the pre season comp excuse... The NAB cup's cumulative audience is apparently bigger than the all stars clash, test matches, and state of origin combined...