Top 3 is not a tough ask!

[CrazyEel]

2 nil back then was a decent lead but FMD!! crazy :lol:

FFS, it was more than just the 2 points, they were carving them all over the park for the first 20, but then again I was a desperate optimist in those days.

 

[Twizzle]

definitely 3rd or 4th imo

 

[CrazyEel]

TBH I still think we'll get 3rd, dogs lose to Storm and Cowboys lose to dogs.

 

[Eelectrica]

Finishing 3rd is very possible, but out of our hands.
4th is in our control though if our players have their heads screwed on for the final 2 games.

 

[hineyrulz]

All we can do is win our last 2 games, the rest is out of our control.

 

[goboggo]

Ok, I thought I'd get completely nerdy and work out the possibilities of where we could finish for each possible Eels result (ie two wins, one win, no wins), then guess the odds for each match, thus coming to a conclusion for the odds of us finishing in each position. (please note - I disregarded For and Against as there would have to be some major changes for it to affect us. Also please note that I started doing this for a bit of fun and then got more serious as I went along (I love maths games, I'm weird I know), so the actual results are probably a little skewed. Even at the start they would have been pretty good guesses though, so the numbers will be fairly accurate. The conclusion is definitely spot on.)


Two wins: Possible finishes 3rd or 4th
Guaranteed 4th. Possibly 3rd if results go our way (Storm beat Dogs then Dogs beat Cows)

ODDS FOR TWO WINS:
possibility of 3rd - 27%
possibility of 4th - 73%


One win: Possible finishes 4th - 6th
If results went against us (meaning Warriors win both games (Manly & Penrith) and Canterbury beat either Storm or Cows or both) we'd drop to 6th.
If results go our way (Warriors lose at least one and Dogs lose to both Cows and Storm) we come 4th still - possible!
If results partially go our way (Warriors lose at least one and Dogs win at least one OR one of them wins both and the other loses both) we come 5th - probable.

ODDS FOR ONE WIN:
4th - 20%
5th - 64%
6th - 16%


No wins: Possible finishes 5th - 8th
Our place if we lose both is totally dependent on how many of these criteria occur:
#1 - Broncos losing to Canberra before they beat us
#2 - Warriors losing both games (Manly and Penrith)
#3 - Rabbits beating Wests but then losing to Roosters

It would take a minor miracle but if all three of these criteria are met we would still come 5th!
We would come 6th if two of the criteria are met.
We would come 7th if one of the criteria are met.
We would come 8th if none of the criteria are met.

ODDS FOR NO WINS:
5th - 2%
6th - 17%
7th - 44%
8th - 37%

In other words, two losses and we are a 81% chance of being involved in a sudden death away from home finals game in the first week.


FINAL ODDS:
3rd - 14%
4th - 46%
5th - 25%
6th - 8%
7th - 4%
8 - 3%


CONCLUSION:
I have analysed this data and discovered that for the Eels to have the best chance of winning the comp they should try and win their next two games by as many points as possible.

They should also disregard any talk of future possibilities and take it one game at a time.

 

[forward pass]

Look guys - take this from a long time Eels fan - you young upstarts have a thing or two to learn about the history of this club.

The loss on Friday was the best thing to happen to us. We will not win the comp from 3rd or 4th place. Our best chance is to fall out of favour with everyone, not get talked about, and sneak up and win it. We are useless as favourites, always have been.

I dont know why, I really don't, but it is a fact of life with us and we need to accept that we just don't perform well when favourites. The last 10 years has proven that. And I don't believe its a coaching issue either.

I think finishing 5th or 6th would be perfect for us. We shall wait and see............

 

[goboggo]

We were minor premiers in 86, and I'm sure we were minor premiers at least once when we beat Manly. If not, we were definitely second.

 

[The Engineers Room]

I like your work goboggo but with 0 wins we can finish 9th.

 

[forward pass]

We were minor premiers in 86, and I'm sure we were minor premiers at least once when we beat Manly. If not, we were definitely second.

Forget that 6 year period from 81 to 86 - that was a freakish side we had.

 

[cirque]

Hey guys what do you think?
Can we claw back to 3rd position after next two rounds. I am just concern about discipline and attitude. Nobody can be sure of whether we are "switched of" or "switched on" on the park. If we do not get home semis - I think we will struggle. Saying that we did play well in Telstra (against Dogs). Ref will be a big factor. Our defence has improved considerable - but we are still incoherent in attack. Grothe, Ben , Jarryd needs to lift their game. Cayless has to bounce back. I still think he is not ready yet. We have to cut down the mistakes. The effort against Melbourne was brilliant - we need to take that intensity against Dragons. Dragons are not playing well and we can beat them hollow. But as I said - if we turn up lazy - we are going to struggle. I do not think Hagan can do anything about. Now it is up to the players to show the hunger on the field.
Hope for the best.

 

[stuke]

the Bunnies win last night has probably made it a bit harder for us. Storm have a break over the Sea Eagles now for the minor premiership so how they will turn up against the Dogs will be important from our perspective. also makes Brisbane needing to win both of their remaining games to try and get in the 8, so our last game will not be easy at all.

we need some results to go our way.

unfortunately we had it in our grasp and let it go, so hopefully if it does by chance return to us we might appreciate the position a bit more.

 

[Twizzle]

I reckon we'll end up third

Doggies and Cowpats have a tough run home

 

[TheParraboy]

We could claw our way to 8th

 

[hineyrulz]

hopefully not PB.

 

[goboggo]

I like your work goboggo but with 0 wins we can finish 9th.

Only with a big turnaround in For and Against. Not gonna happen.

 

[Eelementary]

We've gone from a guaranteed (or at the very least, secure) Top 4 berth, to possibly struggling to even make the 8.

Yeah - making the Top 3, at this stage, will be a struggle in my opinion. We have to first start off by beating the Dragons. And before that, we have to hope that the Cowboys lose.

 

[Ron Jeremy]

well it is a reality isn't it???

I've been around long enough to know that I don't celebrate anything until it happens and as long as there is a possibility of us missing out on the 8 all together, I'll never rest easy as a supporter.

let's just say that I'm more cautious than negative about it.

Well put, I learnt alot from the 98 semi, hence why i'm always negative now.

 

[caylo]

Cowboys will put one on the dragons, but at worst i think we can improve our f/a to be ahead of the dogs, but i do believe they will lose... they are talking themselves up, and willie is being willie. I am just waiting for an all mighty melbourne to put 60 on them.

 

[Ron Jeremy]

Geez i hope the dogs loose there last two and play Melbourne in Melbourne.