Unlucky?

[Gary Gutful]

And spice and all things nice.

 

[oldmancraigy]

I don’t want BA retained and have said as much on multiple occasions so that puts a spanner in your theory.

I’d love you to explain the many areas where we have a comparative resource advantage over Penrith, Brisbane and Melbourne please. I could well be missing something.

Exactly!

Panthers have like 50% more revenue than us (on available reports). And they subsequently spend more on football operations. We don't compete with those big boys financially

But compare us to anyone else, and we're in pretty good shape

 

[King-Gutho94]

Exactly!

Panthers have like 50% more revenue than us (on available reports). And they subsequently spend more on football operations. We don't compete with those big boys financially

But compare us to anyone else, and we're in pretty good shape

There a lot of people responsible for letting Penrith overtakes us in basically every single area on & off the field since 1986.

We had a 20 year old start of them.

By the end of 1986 we had won 4 comps and were in a golden era.

Penrith at the same time had just played in 1 finals series after 20 years of existence and were bottom 4 for 95% of there first 20 seasons.

Yet nearly 40 years later they are powerhouse and we are still chasing our tail.

How on earth have we let our little brother basically become a rich powerhouse and steam roll past us into a juggernaut.

 

[oldmancraigy]

There a lot of people responsible for letting Penrith overtakes us in basically every single area on & off the field since 1986.

We had a 20 year old start of them.

By the end of 1986 we had won 4 comps and were in a golden era.

Penrith at the same time had just played in 1 finals series after 20 years of existence and were bottom 4 for 95% of there first 20 seasons.

Yet nearly 40 years later they are powerhouse and we are still chasing our tail.

How on earth have we let our little brother basically become a rich powerhouse and steam roll past us into a juggernaut.

It's sad isn't it.... we should still be a juggernaut when compared to others, but for whatever reasons we aren't.

 

[hineyrulz]

There a lot of people responsible for letting Penrith overtakes us in basically every single area on & off the field since 1986.

We had a 20 year old start of them.

By the end of 1986 we had won 4 comps and were in a golden era.

Penrith at the same time had just played in 1 finals series after 20 years of existence and were bottom 4 for 95% of there first 20 seasons.

Yet nearly 40 years later they are powerhouse and we are still chasing our tail.

How on earth have we let our little brother basically become a rich powerhouse and steam roll past us into a juggernaut.

Bad luck and a change of demographics.

 

[King-Gutho94]

Bad luck and a change of demographics.

Demographics is a big one.

I grew up in the area my whole life i started primary school in 2000 and there was already a small chunk of kids in my grade with Asian backgrounds from Chinese, Indian, Sri Lankan, Pakistan, Vietnamese backgrounds that were born here.

So I have been used too it my whole life. Its only gotten bigger since the early 2000s to what it is now.

But for those growing up in the 70s, 80s & 90s. I would imagine it would be quite different to what i experienced growing up.

Those backgrounds ain't rugby league backgrounds where they play the sport or even follow it. More cricket, basketball or study/education.

The school & local team was still full of Aussies in the early & mid 2000s.

I have noticed though in the last 2 or 3 years we are seeing more families with south asian background at games which is great i suppose from a membership point of view.

But are they playing the sport.

Not sure.

 

[hindy111]

I reckon we’d all get along over some beers. Especially if @hineyrulz was paying.

I've met a few guys on here. Got on quite well. Good people
One bloke I highly doubt I'd get on with. But I'm not here to name names.

 

[emjaycee]

I've met a few guys on here. Got on quite well. Good people
One bloke I highly doubt I'd get on with. But I'm not here to name names.

You don't need to name The Ram mate.
We all know how you two don't get on.

 

[Gary Gutful]

How on earth have we let our little brother basically become a rich powerhouse and steam roll past us into a juggernaut.

Shit management and self interested Board members held us back for many years. Having Sharpie in charge of the club was embarrassing beyond belief.

I think the fallout of the cap drama is probably what we needed and we are much better run now, but it will take another step change to get us to where the likes of Penrith, Melbourne, Brisbane and the Roosters are.

 

[emjaycee]

Shit management and self interested Board members held us back for many years. Having Sharpie in charge of the club was embarrassing beyond belief.

I am not sure whether this was bad luck or not but from 1974 until 2009 we had Denis Fitzgerald running the joint as CEO of both the football club and the PLC and from 1988 until 2009 he was paired with (and kept safe) by Alan Overton and his board. So the first 23 years of our drought we endured Fitzgerald and things like the Parra Power Soccer Club, an attempt at a Super Rugby team, the focus on poker machine taxes and its impact on our future, etc.

Following on from Fitzgerald and Overton, we then had the "Spagnolo Years" until 2013, with quality CEO's such as Paul Osborne, Bob Bentley and Ken Edwards (the first 2 holding both football and PLC CEO roles jointly).

After Roy and his cohort were ousted, along came the era of the Plumber - with Scotty "from Marketing" Seward taking the reins after an interim placement of Matt Phelan (who??) for Edwards who lasted just 9 months in the role.
Seward took us to the salary cap saga and when he left, John Boulos took over in an acting capacity before getting given the gig in Jan 2016 and then getting suspended in May and booted out by Max in July 2016.

Max appointed Bernie who we had as CEO from late 2016 until 2019 and was then replaced by Jim. So, 38 year drought with 9 CEO's in total.
Of those, how many years did we have shit management? Dare I say at least 30 of them?

 

[Gary Gutful]

I am not sure whether this was bad luck or not but from 1974 until 2009 we had Denis Fitzgerald running the joint as CEO of both the football club and the PLC and from 1988 until 2009 he was paired with (and kept safe) by Alan Overton and his board. So the first 23 years of our drought we endured Fitzgerald and things like the Parra Power Soccer Club, an attempt at a Super Rugby team, the focus on poker machine taxes and its impact on our future, etc.

Following on from Fitzgerald and Overton, we then had the "Spagnolo Years" until 2013, with quality CEO's such as Paul Osborne, Bob Bentley and Ken Edwards (the first 2 holding both football and PLC CEO roles jointly).

After Roy and his cohort were ousted, along came the era of the Plumber - with Scotty "from Marketing" Seward taking the reins after an interim placement of Matt Phelan (who??) for Edwards who lasted just 9 months in the role.
Seward took us to the salary cap saga and when he left, John Boulos took over in an acting capacity before getting given the gig in Jan 2016 and then getting suspended in May and booted out by Max in July 2016.

Max appointed Bernie who we had as CEO from late 2016 until 2019 and was then replaced by Jim. So, 38 year drought with 9 CEO's in total.
Of those, how many years did we have shit management? Dare I say at least 30 of them?

That’s a tragic tale. If they were ASX listed you wouldn’t invest in them.

 

[MarkInTheStands]

After Roy and his cohort were ousted, along came the era of the Plumber - with Scotty "from Marketing" Seward taking the reins after an interim placement of Matt Phelan (who??) for Edwards who lasted just 9 months in the role.
Seward took us to the salary cap saga and when he left,

Turned supergrass for the NRL, DailyTelegraph and Ray Hadley while ending up at the MCG in some role.

Thanks for the reminder, Seaweed, the man who f**ked us twice.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

There a lot of people responsible for letting Penrith overtakes us in basically every single area on & off the field since 1986.

We had a 20 year old start of them.

By the end of 1986 we had won 4 comps and were in a golden era.

Penrith at the same time had just played in 1 finals series after 20 years of existence and were bottom 4 for 95% of there first 20 seasons.

Yet nearly 40 years later they are powerhouse and we are still chasing our tail.

How on earth have we let our little brother basically become a rich powerhouse and steam roll past us into a juggernaut.

Demographic change

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Demographics is a big one.

ffs

I grew up in the area my whole life i started primary school in 2000 and there was already a small chunk of kids in my grade with Asian backgrounds from Chinese, Indian, Sri Lankan, Pakistan, Vietnamese backgrounds that were born here.

So I have been used too it my whole life. Its only gotten bigger since the early 2000s to what it is now.

But for those growing up in the 70s, 80s & 90s. I would imagine it would be quite different to what i experienced growing up.

Those backgrounds ain't rugby league backgrounds where they play the sport or even follow it. More cricket, basketball or study/education.

The school & local team was still full of Aussies in the early & mid 2000s.

I have noticed though in the last 2 or 3 years we are seeing more families with south asian background at games which is great i suppose from a membership point of view.

But are they playing the sport.

Not sure.

I went to primary school in Parramatta in the eighties and it was mostly Anglos with quite a few Mediterraneans and Polynesians. We had two Indian kids in my year. No East Asians. Parramatta was also a bit of a shit hole, so the demographic change correlates with an improvement in the city. There is a lot more money there now.

 

[the phantom menace]

It’s how you deliver on the 375-word piece of totally original Gary brilliance. Bad resources = shit results. Better resources = improvement.

Where was that in your 375-word treatise though? Pretty much avoided all mention of resources when you had the chance and put it together, if I recall... Similarly to when I answered your question and this vague concept of "resources" wasn't the main point.

I really don’t understand why you are arguing against this. It’s fairly self evident.

I don't really understand why you are arguing against other people arguing against Pou's vaguely expressed assertions about "resources" that he offers only to diminish other people's takes on what is currently wrong and why we haven't won diddly in 38 years.

 

[Gary Gutful]

Where was that in your 375-word treatise though? Pretty much avoided all mention of resources when you had the chance and put it together, if I recall... Similarly to when I answered your question and this vague concept of "resources" wasn't the main point.

I don't really understand why you are arguing against other people arguing against Pou's vaguely expressed assertions about "resources" that he offers only to diminish other people's takes on what is currently wrong and why we haven't won diddly in 38 years.

You aren't adding anything that hasn't already been addressed.

We've already established and explained what resources are and why they are important and then verified it through two highly sophisticated AI programs.

Do you know how much f**ken data those things pour through to come up with those answers? No?...Well neither do I, but I reckon its a shitload.

 

[lucablight]

Every game is winnable before it starts. Have a look at the odds. And while we've 'dropped' winnable games, the same can be said about our opposition when we've won. Look at all the times we've beaten Melbourne and Penrith in recent years. It all comes out in the wash.

If you miss the finals by a single win then of course you'll look back (hindsight) and whinge about any given one-that-got-away. But you can't also ignore the wins you were expected to lose.

Then there's all the close games, decided by six points (an arbitrary number but it is a single converted try) or less. Luck plays a huge role in these games. Here's how we've fared in recent years. The year on year disparity in close games win rate shows a simple discrepancy in randomness (luck). There's no need to shoehorn an extra narrative onto it. Brad Arthur has either been lucky in close games or he is good at winning them. I say he's been lucky:

Year	Wins by 1-6	Losses by 1-6	Win rate (games decided by <7 points)
2024	1	1	50%
2023	4	4	50%
2022	6	2	75%
2021	1	3	25%
2020	9	2	82%
2019	3	4	43%
2018	3	5	38%
2017	6	2	75%
2016	4	3	57%
2015	6	4	60%
2014	3	4	43%
Total/aggregate	46	34	58%

No I think every team has a target of eighth place at minimum. Last year it only took 13 wins.

By 'above our level' do you mean giving 110%? Honestly, I don't think it's a real thing. Teams either play their best or they don't. In a contest of two unevenly matched teams, if the better team plays their best they will win. It's that simple. Ivan Cleary said as much in that Panthers doco before our first final in 2022.

So while Arthur's might have been lucky in close games over his career, he has been unlucky in the finals to play one third (six games) of his finals matches against clearly superior opposition (Penrith and Melbourne) and the only time one of them didn't play their best was 2017, when we got a lot closer than we should have.

Is there anything to suggest we do? We have done a lot worse than this in the past forty years. Meanwhile the only period that surpasses 2019-23 was '97-'01.

We had the fourth best defence in 2021. Our oldest forwards that year were 28, which is shortly after their peak, according to RLET.

Of our eight finals losses since 2017, five of them have been against the eventual premiers.

You implied they had limited resources before he arrived, which is false. I don't believe he would've gone there if they lacked resources, and I suspect he left because the money ran out.

He's obviously not washed up but they are desperate too. Lucky they have proven to be well resourced, winning a premiership under Maguire and making the preliminary final under Seibold and Demetriou. Whatever has gone wrong at Souths, resourcing isn't the problem. The issues are occurring behind the scenes and Demetriou would've been sacked because he was part of the problem.

1.) Did Melbourne and Penrith drop so many winnable games that they missed the finals?

2.) If you keep winning then you become favourites in some games you’d be underdogs in so that argument doesn’t always wash either.

3.) I don’t really have the data to make a good interpretation on why we win so many close games. If you’re in close games that you’re expected to win easily that’s not bad luck. That means you’re playing below your expectations.

4.) We couldn’t even manage “only 13 win”?

5.) So every underdog that has ever beaten a better team did do because the favourites didn’t play to their best?

6.) I’d say we were closer to our opposition than the Knights were to that 2013 Roosters side. 2021 was a huge missed opportunity. I don’t think the 2022 grand final reflected the best ability of our team. We were well below our best that night.

7.) So the Dragons had a wealth of resources from inception until 2011 then they coincidentally dried up so Bennett left.

8.) It always comes down to resources-except when it doesn’t.

 

[hineyrulz]

Demographic change

lol as boring as he is predictable.

 

[hindy111]

Demographic change

I agree with this. I have arguments with people who don't understand the set ups and crowing how good Penrith are. Well I agree they are but they have the demographics. From Mt Druit to Penrith out to Windsor area is full of rugby league families. And a lot not islanders in these areas who are just stronger and tougher in general I feel. Why 50% of NRL players have this heritage.
Parra is now full of Indian communities and they like cricket not footy.

In saying that it doesn't explain the Warriors lack of success. So there has to be something more to it whilst the Storm seem the opposite. Has to be something to do with identifying and development also.

I used to hear many years ago when Penrith where terrible how many red hot juniors where coming through and they'd go off the tracks once hit 18-20 and ruin their chances.
So somethings changed.

 

[lucablight]

I agree with this. I have arguments with people who don't understand the set ups and crowing how good Penrith are. Well I agree they are but they have the demographics. From Mt Druit to Penrith out to Windsor area is full of rugby league families. And a lot not islanders in these areas who are just stronger and tougher in general I feel. Why 50% of NRL players have this heritage.
Parra is now full of Indian communities and they like cricket not footy.

In saying that it doesn't explain the Warriors lack of success. So there has to be something more to it whilst the Storm seem the opposite. Has to be something to do with identifying and development also.

I used to hear many years ago when Penrith where terrible how many red hot juniors where coming through and they'd go off the tracks once hit 18-20 and ruin their chances.
So somethings changed.

When I used to go to Mt Druitt Westfield 10+ years ago I’d see primarily Parra jerseys. With Penriths success that has certainly changed where it’s definitely more Penrith jerseys now.