I think the league has a very high likelihood of getting started. Whether that will mean it will begin searching for coaches, investors, and players, or actually play games is up in the air. It will have to run in debt for a long time, and it will have to be promoted endlessly to even make it to a sustainable level of debt.
But in all honesty, having an AMNRL club does not qualify an area as having a "significant rugby culture." There are around 500 people of the 300 million residents of the US who are affiliated with the AMNRL. The AMNRL has a miniscule presence in the country right now. I do think that the grassroots rugby league will benefit from the presence of a pro league--particularly with summer seasons, there won't be much competition from Union and will probably be a lot of overlap.
However, Union and League players in the US, beyond a handful of elite level players, will not be suitable for the league in the long run. Younger Aussies and Kiwis wanting to get some experience I think will be key as the leaders of the franchises. They could probably make more money playing in the states, and if there are enough of them the competition will be good. I also think that it is ESSENTIAL to tap in to the football market. Even with dozens of semi-pro leagues, there are hundreds of thousands of former football players who might be interested in playing a similar sport professionally, and could easily learn enough of the game to be sucessful.
I think with a 22 man roster, you could have 1 player as a marquee player who is exempt from a salary cap, and then another who has $100k exempt from the cap, which allows teams to have a few experienced players. The other 20 could make an average of $50k, with more money going to those with more professional athletic experience (not necessarily rugby league), so the cap would be around $1m.
I'm still slightly confused on some of the franchises they are saying are confirmed, especially with the statement that they are going to use MLS stadia. Boston, in particular, does not have a soccer stadium and has no plans for one. The best thing there would be Nickerson Field, which isn't quite as big or nice. New York and Philadelphia have plans for stadia, but no guarantees that they will be open by 2010, and little other options for stadia. Jacksonville's Hodges Stadium is also a little small--I think that all stadia need at least 10k capacity. Dallas and Chicago are my picks for the other two teams. They both have large populations (3rd and 4th largest metro areas in the USA), MLS stadia which would be well-suited for rugby league (Toyota Park in Chicago has hosted RU internationals and has an ideal name for rugby league), and active sports cultures. Texas in particular I think would be a tremendous breeding ground for the sport and it would be foolish to ignore it.
In the long run, I forsee the league getting started but folding after a season because of the debt. Unless they get subsidized somewhere, it's going to be hard to keep it up, but I definitely hope that they can, because the USA has the potential to be the greatest RL country in the world, even as a second- or third-tier sport domestically.
