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What chance the 8?

Rich102

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,698
It's not time for alarm bells just yet but past evidence suggests the Warriors may struggle to make the top eight this year.


While many fans hope for a repeat of last year's dream run, a massive increase in consistency is needed otherwise the Auckland side will finish outside the playoffs for the first time since 2009.
The team has a 43 per cent winning record this year but will need to win around 70 per cent of their remaining matches to make the eight.
Based on what we have seen over the past five seasons, top four now seems an almost unreachable goal.
The Warriors would need to win eight - or probably nine - of their last 10 games to be among the quartet that are guaranteed a double life and at least one home semifinal.
Since the demise of the McIntyre system, much of the focus has been on the top four as the holy grail.
But perhaps finishing in the top six will be a better (and more realistic) goal, as teams ranked fifth and sixth are guaranteed home matches in the first week of the playoffs against the seventh and eighth sides.
However, either of these goals will be an uphill struggle.
The bare facts are that four of their six wins this season have come against teams currently sitting below them on the table.
There have been some close calls, slow starts or soft finishes which have consigned them to frustrating defeats against the Sea Eagles, Bulldogs, Tigers and particularly the Sharks.
The Warriors had those games in their hands at various times, before concentration levels slipped.
It is partly a reflection of the NRL - which is one of the most competitive sporting championships - but also shows an Achilles heel of the Warriors.
"We are at a point now where it is not acceptable any more," says Shaun Johnson of their tendency to switch off.
"You can only talk about something so much. As a playing group, there is nothing more frustrating than having to sit in the video room going over the same stuff. We are working hard at it and it is only a matter of time before we start seeing the benefits of it."
Crucial to any successful Warriors campaign is form across the Tasman, as shown in 2002 (first in minor premiership, seven wins in Australia), 2003 (sixth, six wins), 2007, (fourth, five wins, one draw) and 2011 (sixth, six wins).
Some away performances in 2012 have been meritorious, particularly in Melbourne, but two wins from seven matches is not playoff material and those victories came against the two bottom sides.
Still to come are difficult trips to Suncorp Stadium, Brookvale Oval, Dairy Farmers and WIN Stadium.
There have been contributing factors, especially with injuries to key forwards at the start of the season and Kevin Locke and Jerome Ropati throughout the campaign.
Heading into the final stretch, the presence of Micheal Luck and Nathan Friend will be invaluable, especially to shore up the defence - as a team, they are still conceding more than 20 points per match.
"Both on the edge and around the ruck, our defence is improving," says coach Brian McClennan, "though it has fallen away badly in the last two games, when there were pockets that we lost concentration.
"Defending is the hardest part of the game but it is in those tougher periods, when we start to run out of oxygen, that we need to concentrate that little bit harder. We have a goal as a group to play a game where [the opposition] don't score any [tries]."
Attack is less of an issue, with power, pace and precision in equal measure, though they can be profligate in the opposition red zone.
"There are times when we drop away in intensity in the attacking zone," says McClennan.
"In yardage, we are generally pretty good and we get to a good place for our kickers. But sometimes we are not quite aggressive enough when it comes to attacking the line."
A win next week will put them at exactly the same position they were last year (seven wins, eight losses) though Ivan Cleary's men came home with a wet sail, losing just two of their last nine games to finish sixth (32 points).


  1. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/warriors-league-team/news/article.cfm?c_id=360&objectid=10815163
 

JoeD

First Grade
Messages
7,056
Not so sure myself. If we do it will be by the skin of our teeth.
 

Juju

Juniors
Messages
1,712
I think we're gone this year TBH.
We are very much in need of the traditional last season charge.
 

KeepingTheFaith

Referee
Messages
25,235
A depleted Cowboys side and an improved yet vulnerable Titans. If we drop either of those games we're no shot. Even if we win both it's touch and go.

Outside of that we have to win our home games against Newcastle, Cronulla, Penrith, Canberra to get us to 28 points. Our away games are f**king scary though.

Brisbane
Manly
St George
North Queensland

Dragons are the worst performing team but they've always been a bogey side for us, especially away from home.

As I said, Titans and Cowboys, our season hinges on these two games, but I fear we don't have the consistency and experience to pull out the wins when we need them and there's going to be a slip up somewhere in that run home.
 

Penrose Warrior

First Grade
Messages
9,136
Make no mistake - we have to win today. I think the Cowboys' spot in the eight is the only one we can think about taking. Win today, and we're two points shy of them. The away game with the Titans is pretty major as well, next week or whenever it is.

The Bunnies will win today and go to 22, they're too good to fall out (as much as I'd love them to. The Tigers will recover when Farah's unfortunate circumstance is behind them, and the rest are increasingly out of reach.

That's without examining our indifferent form. There's going to be some close games from here to the end of the season and Maloney/Johnson are going to have to show they're capable of taking them by the scruff of the neck.
 

MKEB...

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
5,987
I think they will narrowly make it to the 8 but no further.
Though this year seems not so good this year...i can see the stones being paved for next year in a stronger team, wiser and perhaps flashier team. Perhaps a current tiger side but more consistant.
 

Aragorn

First Grade
Messages
6,762
Make no mistake - we have to win today. I think the Cowboys' spot in the eight is the only one we can think about taking. Win today, and we're two points shy of them. The away game with the Titans is pretty major as well, next week or whenever it is.

Mate, what are you drinking?

I think we steal either West Tigers or Scouffs.
 

Aragorn

First Grade
Messages
6,762
Mate, after that absymal performance last week, you should be happy if they dont make the 8.
 

Micistm

Bench
Messages
4,470
Hmmm...I think they will scrape in, but if things don't change dramatically D wise, they'll be cannon fodder for anyone when there.
We're not the only team with the issues we have, although argueably we are the team most underachieving considering the players.
 

Penrose Warrior

First Grade
Messages
9,136
Mate, what are you drinking?

I think we steal either West Tigers or Scouffs.

Um....tends to be juice on a Sunday.

Tigers had a great run going and were halted by a personal tragedy. Souths, yeah maybe it could be them. But we play the Cowboys twice coming home - we control our destiny in regards to them. We don't play either Tigers or Souths.

See my logic?
 

Brando

Juniors
Messages
108
No chance if we don't stiffen up our right side defence, Cowboys crossed easily..
No chance if the Refs keep up with the bullshit penalties, like the 3 against us so far in the Cowboys game.
Every chance if Martel, Matalino and Co keep playing like they are in the same game.
 

KeepingTheFaith

Referee
Messages
25,235
No way we'll overtake Souths. Have you guys seen their draw? I know there's no easy games, but there are quite a few there you'd expect them to claim comfortably.

Penrith (H)
Newcastle (H)
Roosters (A)
Dragons (H)
Tigers (H)
Titans (A)
Manly (H)
Cronulla (A)
Eels (H)
Newcastle (A)
 

Iafeta

Referee
Messages
24,357
Team of individual champions, no defensive structure whatsoever, and a raging inability to concentrate for 80 minutes. Sure signs of a team with a load of NYC talent. To me, tonight just says to me in 2 years time we'll have a sweet team, but be too inconsistent due to inexperience to do anything sustained in the meantime.
 

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