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I think you're pretty much on the mark there.
Perth & NZ 2 are probably the next two teams in (in either order) - the Dolphins need a chance to "bed in", and the Broncos & Titans (and News Ltd!) will be very reluctant to admit a SE-Qld club that may step on their toes.
That brings us to 19 teams - and that 20th spot could well be West-Brisbane, with Adelaide as a relocation.... BUT the two unknowns are...
a) will relocation ever happen? (I have strong doubts) and
b) will the incumbent SE-Qld clubs & News Ltd resistance to SE-Qld expansion teams in that western corridor endure?
In that case, I can easily see the next 3 expansion clubs being Perth, NZ, Adelaide - or (more likely) NZ, Perth, Adelaide.
Strong chance relocation won’t happen so long as the grant is more than the salary cap. If the NRL got to their desired maximum number of teams - which I think would be 20 at most - they can always offer very large financial incentives for a club to move to Adelaide or wherever is left. May not get any bites but money talks, either that or get tough and enforce certain criteria and if clubs fall behind they can leave or relocate.
There may be resistance to another SEQ team any time in the next 20 years, hard to say. Different people and agendas will come and go several times before then.