i agree Pete, the Titans look the most likely to fall from the pack. as has been said, they've got a lot of old boys around and i don't see any obvious plans in place to compensate for their aging/retirement.
you can never tell pre-season with the Tigers, but they do have the personnel to get the job done. i'd tip them to be top 4 before i would tip them bottom 4, but they are probably capable of either, depending on circumstance.
Manly could go either way, but i think 2011 will be a pretty quiet year from them and they'll be back with a vengeance in 2012. Snake will take a while to get back in the swing, Daly Cherry Evans may or may not be a success.
i expect the Bunnies to be strong, but continue to be fickle in the head. will get beaten by more committed teams when the chips are down. not much to say about their squad, it looks awesome on paper. i hope they have Inglis on the treadmill.
The Raiders will be a bigger, more significant force this year. Orford will be huge for them... with Campese to be the biggest benefactor. their pack is big, mean and effective. their backs are young, quick and exciting. i still rate Waddell that highly, but the other 3 in their spine will more than compensate for any deficiency there. i think these guys are one of the title threats in 2011.
there will be some surprises from the bottom of the ladder for sure at the expense of the teams that do drop. massive question marks over NQ... but i just get this feeling that Thurston will have a healthy year and with some fresh blood around the place they might just surprise everyone - myself included as i don't rate their squad... i just think there's too many question marks there to discount them as a potential smokey for the 8. like manly, it may be a year too early for them yet.
*warning - biased content below*
i honestly expect the Knights to not only improve on their 2010 form, but their 2009 form too. i think most Knights fans will be perfectly satisfied with a drama free year, and to be honest i think the football team will feed off that if it can be achieved. from coach merry-go-rounds to community/player drama to drug scandels... we haven't had a settled year since Joey left. i think we're a quality prop off from being a genuine threat to anyone... but that is certainly all we need. gun back line, very good second row with more superb prospects in the lower grades waiting for a crack - expect Kyle O'Donnell to go close to rookie of the year (much to the dismay of sharks fans). the halves are our biggest question mark. Mullen is amazing when he has backup. the Knights will be needing Beau Henry to be as good as he can be. Ben Rogers is an adequate back up, mind you... and when you forgive him for his occasional brain snaps he's a very lethal player (and one of the better defensive halves comp wide, i would wager). more than that, though, is that the opposition do have to keep their eyes on Rogers, which frees Mullen up a bit more. either way, i don't know how anyone could look at the Knights squad and say spoon. i don't see it.
*end of biased content*
Cronulla... poor Cronulla. they couldn't possibly get worse could they? i find it hard to see where any joy in their future is going to come from. they just look a mess.
lots of talk both ways on the Dogs. i can't really make my mind up. i think they've got a forward pack that can go places, and enough in their backline to score points too. their halves will be their biggest enemy. i think Barba will warm to the first grade fullback role eventually. if not, they'll find a spot for him somewhere i'm sure. if roberts can re-produce his early form last year consistently then i don't see why they can't make the 8.
The Roosters - there is no reason why they can't be just as good this year... but Brian Smith can be such an enigma sometimes. still, i don't see them missing the 8 barring injuries to their main go-forward guys or their halves. Martin Kennedy might end up starting this year, really rate that kid.
The Storm need to wrap Slater, Smith and Cronk in cotton wool. they have a lot of young kids and castaways down there now. losing one of their top 3 for an extended period will hurt them badly. losing 2 would be catastrophic. there's a strong possibility they could have a lean year.
there isn't much to like about the Eels, really. much like the Tigers they're nearly impossible to predict. Hayne will probably win them some games, though. can't see them making the 8... and they're one of my favourites for the spoon. Justin Poore will be looking to step up and have a really big season. i just can't see them gelling this year.
the Warriors... god this team annoys me. i have a real soft spot for them and really like seeing them do well. most years they look really bloody strong in the off season, too. sadly, most years they just find new ways to underperform. every time i've tipped the Warriors for a big year (on the back of a very strong previous year) they have fallen in a heap. i think i'm gonna hedge on this one and say they'll be on the fringe of the 8. it wouldn't surprise me if they had a really disappointing year, but i really hope they fulfil a bit of their squads potential and step up with a bigger year than last year.
how about the Broncos? i'm really not in touch with what is going on up there aside from the city being underwater. i assume Hodges will make his way back, but you'd have to think after a long layoff he will take a fair bit of time to hit his strides. they have a lot of young, promising players... and they are the Broncos. they won't go anywhere near the spoon... and the funny thing about adversity off the field is that it can either send you to sh*t on the field, or it can steel your team and really give them purpose. i could easily see the Broncos coming out in 2011 and riding the wave of emotion from the recent floods, for at least a while. look at what the Knights did in '97 when BHP shut down and Newcastle was in turmoil. i can find a spot for them in my top 8 without a worry.
Penrith... i just don't like the look of Penrith. Walsh is bound to be exposed as a hack eventually... surely some coach in the NRL will find an effective means of shutting down the Panthers kicking game. they'll need to go right back to the drawing board if/when that happens. Petero is aging and slowing. i'll be interested to see the makeup of their outside backs... but i just don't like the look of their halves. i see them missing the 8, and potentially by a margin.
last but certainly not least, the Premiers - St. George Illawarra - will put up a very good defence of their title. they will continue to bore us with their football and their fans will continue not to care as it reaps results for them. i look forward to watching Kyle Stanley blossom in first grade. they can cover the players they lost without too much fuss. they will be there or there abouts next year, and skate into the 8 blindfolded.
wow... this one started as a small response to Pete... but there you go, that's where i feel everyone is currently at. i'm really starting to itch for the footy to start... not long now...
tl;dr: some teams will go well, others not so much, Knights will be much better than you expect.
