are you seriously trying to claim a short kickoff as a serious danger when deciding to take the 2 points?
there is loser mentality, and then there is paranoid delusion. dead set, if you're basing your gameplan around worrying about an opposition short kickoff then just pack your damn bags. lol. what a hopeless thought.
in the same situation 100 times over (as you put it), we'd see the short kickoff maybe 5 of those times. even if we lose 50% of them (most good teams are likely to lose far less), you're looking at a 2.5% play you're worried about. the short kickoffs that we win, well we get the ball on the 40 metre line after the 2 free points, which is an amazing result and nearly as good as a repeat set from a dropout with 2 free points. how is that a serious consideration for you... when a good team will complete at least 80% of their sets, including those after a penalty goal? fair dinkum... did you run the numbers on this one yourself? the more i think about it, the more laughable it becomes. taking the 2, as a golden rule to follow, is the right decision. there are exceptions to every rule, but you're not too often going to go wrong taking the 2.