No Brett Stewart is a hit for the Sea Eagles, but they should still be much too strong for us.
Suppose we dp manage to win 6/8 (assuming 28 is the cutoff). We'd need two out of three of the Tigers, Cowboys and Warriors to end up on 28 points so that the door was open for us to sneak in on +/-, which would mean the Cowboys losing 5 of their next eight and the Tigers and Warriors losing only winning four from eight.
And even then, we're a step behind the rest of the tail enders. Canberra belted the Storm in Melbourne, no mean feat despite no Smith and Slater imo, and they've got us, the Tits and the Roosters at Canberra and an away trip to Penrith. Those are four very winnable games, as well as two more home games against Canterbury and the Broncos. Tough match ups, but Canberra Stadium is a very tough away trip. Away trips to NZ and Cronulla but honestly, they're in much better shape than we are.
St. George have a pretty tough run home - 6/8 teams are above them on the ladder, but every match is in Sydney or Wollongong.
The Titans are in a better position than us. Just my personal opinion, but I reckon they have the firepower to upset a few sides in this run home if they get their full strength team on the park. They've got the Roosters (a), Penrith (a) and Parramatta (h) as their most likely games, five home games all up. Tough away trip to Melbourne. I think they might come within a sniff - maybe 4-5 wins.
Roosters don't have a super hard run home, only one game outside Sydney, but I don't think they'll challenge the eight.
So long story short: unless we go eight straight, we aren't a chance. As much as it hurts me to say it, I think Canberra are the best chance of a bad bunch at making the eight.
Just for fun, me and some wild guesses came up with a ladder that looks like this:
Storm - 40
Dogs - 36
Sharks - 36
Sea Eagles - 34
Tigers - 32
Broncos - 30
Rabbitohs - 30
Raiders - 30
Warriors - 28
Cowboys - 28
Titans - 26
Dragons - 26
Knights - 24
Eels - 16
Penrith - 16
Roosters - 16
