Going with the safe pick in the Dragons.
They have been the best side all season, and beat a beat-up Manly very easily without ever really looking under threat. Defensively, outside of a virtuoso Raiders team in Canberra, they have been great all season. They also know how to win games when they get in front. They are a side you'd most rely on to hold a lead.
The Tigers will have to jump on them early. Premiership teams are able to overcome adversity in games...it remains to be seen if the Dragons can. They've won a lot this season going away from their opposition. I remember they beat a Luke-less Souths with a 'comeback' but not others.
Dragons by 14.
The most crucial game for me was actually the one against Newcastle. We had them buried at 22-0, then they hit back hard on what was a special night for them (and their last-ditch shot at making the finals to boot). You could tell our players were a bit shell-shocked, especially after the debacle in Canberra the previous week. But someone must have had a few words to the effect of "f**k this sh*t. We're not letting these bastards do a Canberra on us. We're going to win this one." We slipped back into our regular rythm, as if we led by 20, rather than 2. We ground them out of the game for a second time. And we put together a very nice play to wrap the game up with the Soward try. The last 20 minutes of that game more than anything else convinced me that we have what it takes. The disappointment of last year coupled with the timely lesson handed out to us by the Raiders and then the Knights got through to the players just what is required. I'm not saying we've got this wrapped up, or that beating the Tigers is a mere formality (I'll leave that sort of sh*t to the Raiders fans), but I have a quiet confidence our players have discovered (with Mr Bennett's guidance and the harsh teachings of a good old fashioned flogging) the mental toughness required to take that extra step.
Time will tell whether I'm talking out of my arse. In the meantime, keep the choke taunts coming.
p.s. @Rovelli: I for one have never understood the Benji-bashing that tends to go on. Yes, the media love-in can get annoying, but he is absolutely one of the rare players with the ability to turn a match on its head with a flash of brilliance. I've always enjoyed watching him play personally. And I must say I thoroughly enjoyed the commitment he showed in defence against Canberra. A pity his teammates didn't seem too interested in following his lead. Here's hoping he reverts to turnstyle Benji this week though.
