Ideal NRL & 2nd tier expansion in the medium term.

[taipan]

Hmmm 1 1/2% pa population growth isn't that impressive.That's before the current lot of massive high rise development starting up.

And with motorway development and high speed rail.maybe there will be no need for a Raiders side, just keep it to major cities.Imagine if poker machines were banned or restricted even further ,would not Raiders be affected?

"Finite in Cronulla's case" Do you known the undeveloped areas in the Shire ,developers are trying to get approval?Middle Kurnell/Cronulla peninsula,near Menai .A bleeding old brick pit, will be the home for 700 plus units at Kirrawee.The old Caringbah High will have hundreds of units on site.

Do you know of the many new high rise residentials taking shape from Kirrawee to Cronulla? Do you understand
the Council has given approval for those other areas to be high density, ie townhouse and villas?For example nearby to me two houses have ben knocked down and at least 8-10 villas/townhouses will take their place.People want to be near to facilities like the beach, transport,hospitals,and the cap city.

The area at least has a decent overt and covert rl followings the G/F showed.

You lost it when you noted " to appease a handful of people" .The same handful of people that were flicked when Souths were tossed out.

Just another person .whose club like mine joined Super league, and who has no idea of the repercussions to the code as a result. The Swans got a huge boots as did AFL. and union.North Sydney has become a virtual rl wasteland.Even joint ventures sent some fans away.

The trouble is with some Raiders's fans they are so far away from reality and the big cities, to understand rationalisation implications.We have a one city team the Broncos in League heartland ,who should be filling the stadium every weekend and have 45,000 members,it's not happening.

Raider's crowds have been awful of late.Average 20,000 then you can speak with authority.Hell even the Cowboys crowds are down on their initial ones.Maybe if the Raiders played half their games in Adelaide that would help with crowds and expansion.

Just putting pins on maps doesn't solve the problem. The AFL clubs lost $90m plus last year,the Lions a basket case and a bottomless pit of expansion clubs.Northern TV ratings a laughing stock.

The A League expanded yet their crowds are static, their Tv ratings are abhorrent.

Expansion is necessary long term and I believe in expansion, but it must be planned well, and given guarantees, and not be an added drain to NRL coffers.Even the AFL has stated no further relocations ,and they are a well administered most of the time sport.
If a club is a basket case and its crowds continue to drop,then relocate, but not before.

 

[jim_57]

Promotion and relegation would be a disaster in the NRL. You can't please everyone, Mackay (Cowboys territory by the way), Rockhampton etc are delusions of granduer, once the novelty had worn off these claims of "a full stadium every week" would turn in to a 12-15k average with sell outs against Cowboys & Broncos boosting the average because of Cowboys and Broncos fans.

These little towns and similar should not even be considered alongside the likes of Brisbane 2, Perth, NZ2, even Adelaide. 2nd division team & juniors for the best local players to develop and an "on the road" NRL game or 2 every year is more than enough.

 

[jim_57]

Regardless of what the NRL do with the top level, I'd like to see them really cover all bases in Australia & the Pacific. A clear pathway to the top of the tree for every junior in the Australia/NZ/Pacificfrom Sydney, to Darwin to Suva.

Essentially 2nd tier RL and State junior comps should cover Everywhere. You should be able to name a town anywhere, any size and know the likely route a player will take to the very top if he's good enough.

 

[Perth Red]

Like sydneys west and the fact Penrith crowds are so low despite massive population growth most people moving into the cronulla region are from other parts of Sydney and already have a club. The nrl will always be hamstrung by its over saturation in Sydney, it will never have the balls again to do anything about that so will continue to throw massive amounts of tv generated revenue in the hope one day they become sustainable.

 

[The Great Dane]

Hmmm 1 1/2% pa population growth isn't that impressive.That's before the current lot of massive high rise development starting up.

And with motorway development and high speed rail.maybe there will be no need for a Raiders side, just keep it to major cities.Imagine if poker machines were banned or restricted even further ,would not Raiders be affected?

"Finite in Cronulla's case" Do you known the undeveloped areas in the Shire ,developers are trying to get approval?Middle Kurnell/Cronulla peninsula,near Menai .A bleeding old brick pit, will be the home for 700 plus units at Kirrawee.The old Caringbah High will have hundreds of units on site.

Do you know of the many new high rise residentials taking shape from Kirrawee to Cronulla? Do you understand
the Council has given approval for those other areas to be high density, ie townhouse and villas?For example nearby to me two houses have ben knocked down and at least 8-10 villas/townhouses will take their place.People want to be near to facilities like the beach, transport,hospitals,and the cap city.

The area at least has a decent overt and covert rl followings the G/F showed.

You lost it when you noted " to appease a handful of people" .The same handful of people that were flicked when Souths were tossed out.

Just another person .whose club like mine joined Super league, and who has no idea of the repercussions to the code as a result. The Swans got a huge boots as did AFL. and union.North Sydney has become a virtual rl wasteland.Even joint ventures sent some fans away.

The trouble is with some Raiders's fans they are so far away from reality and the big cities, to understand rationalisation implications.We have a one city team the Broncos in League heartland ,who should be filling the stadium every weekend and have 45,000 members,it's not happening.

Raider's crowds have been awful of late.Average 20,000 then you can speak with authority.Hell even the Cowboys crowds are down on their initial ones.Maybe if the Raiders played half their games in Adelaide that would help with crowds and expansion.

Just putting pins on maps doesn't solve the problem. The AFL clubs lost $90m plus last year,the Lions a basket case and a bottomless pit of expansion clubs.Northern TV ratings a laughing stock.

The A League expanded yet their crowds are static, their Tv ratings are abhorrent.

Expansion is necessary long term and I believe in expansion, but it must be planned well, and given guarantees, and not be an added drain to NRL coffers.Even the AFL has stated no further relocations ,and they are a well administered most of the time sport.
If a club is a basket case and its crowds continue to drop,then relocate, but not before.

Honestly I don't have the time right now to go through all of the points you're making, that I (a few years ago now) and many others on this forum have deconstructed and come to the point where we've discovered that 90% of the arguments are emotional, and strong emotions aren't good thing to run a business on.

Besides, in my experience it doesn't matter what I (or anybody else) say or how strong the hard evidence is, you and 99% of the rest of Sydney fans will deny it because you don't like the conclusions it brings you to.

However I will say a few things.

Firstly, there is only so much room for Cronulla to grow out and the government will only allow you to grow so far up, so eventually Cronulla will be unable to grow anymore, and when it does it will still be an area that could covered by other clubs in the long run, with the right planning that is.

Secondly, the SL peace settlement as an argument against rationalisation is stupid because those mergers and regulations were not pre-planned with an end goal of what the league as a whole would look like or how the losses would be covered, and they were extreamly rushed.
Nor would I use mergers or relocation if I was the one rationalising the Sydney clubs.

Thridly, the Raiders crowds have been poor recently due too many things, but mainly because of 20 years of mediocrity on the field coinciding with 20 year of over achievement by our direct competitor, and a board that was openly hostile to the fans for a good 15 years of that time, we seem to be coming out of that period now and sudden and quite dramatic increases in members and crowds over the last few years so that all things going well our numbers should get back up where they should be soon.
Also crowds are really only a small factor in rationalisation, market size, potential growth of that market, and finances are all much more important.

Finally, the AFL are quickly heading towards disaster because of their refusal to deal with rationalisation heading towards the richer clubs openly revolting because of their taxes to keep the poor afloat.

 

[Diesel]

Slightly OT, but that last paragraph about AFL is interesting and if there is any potential for a type of breakaway comp in the AFL? Would be a good opportunity for RL to strike back into Vic with the Storm (much like the Swans did in the 90's) but more so WA and possibility SA at either NRL or 2nd tier level.

 

[The Great Dane]

Slightly OT, but that last paragraph about AFL is interesting and if there is any potential for a type of breakaway comp in the AFL? Would be a good opportunity for RL to strike back into Vic with the Storm (much like the Swans did in the 90's) but more so WA and possibility SA at either NRL or 2nd tier level.

It's not impossible, but I doubt it, they would have learned from our mistakes.

However things will eventually come to a head, and the clubs will start to play hardball with the commission on more and more things in hopes of getting their way, at which point who knows what'll happen.
In the end though massive change will be needed to sustain their growth and the AFL as it stands.

In my opinion they'll either thin the field a bit to in Melbourne to make things sustainable again, or send everybody broke trying to make everyone rich.

 

[taipan]

Honestly I don't have the time right now to go through all of the points you're making, that I (a few years ago now) and many others on this forum have deconstructed and come to the point where we've discovered that 90% of the arguments are emotional, and strong emotions aren't good thing to run a business on.

Besides, in my experience it doesn't matter what I (or anybody else) say or how strong the hard evidence is, you and 99% of the rest of Sydney fans will deny it because you don't like the conclusions it brings you to.

However I will say a few things.

Firstly, there is only so much room for Cronulla to grow out and the government will only allow you to grow so far up, so eventually Cronulla will be unable to grow anymore, and when it does it will still be an area that could covered by other clubs in the long run, with the right planning that is.

Secondly, the SL peace settlement as an argument against rationalisation is stupid because those mergers and regulations were not pre-planned with an end goal of what the league as a whole would look like or how the losses would be covered, and they were extreamly rushed.
Nor would I use mergers or relocation if I was the one rationalising the Sydney clubs.

Thridly, the Raiders crowds have been poor recently due too many things, but mainly because of 20 years of mediocrity on the field coinciding with 20 year of over achievement by our direct competitor, and a board that was openly hostile to the fans for a good 15 years of that time, we seem to be coming out of that period now and sudden and quite dramatic increases in members and crowds over the last few years so that all things going well our numbers should get back up where they should be soon.
Also crowds are really only a small factor in rationalisation, market size, potential growth of that market, and finances are all much more important.

Finally, the AFL are quickly heading towards disaster because of their refusal to deal with rationalisation heading towards the richer clubs openly revolting because of their taxes to keep the poor afloat.

 

[taipan]

Honestly I don't have the time right now to go through all of the points you're making, that I (a few years ago now) and many others on this forum have deconstructed and come to the point where we've discovered that 90% of the arguments are emotional, and strong emotions aren't good thing to run a business on.

Besides, in my experience it doesn't matter what I (or anybody else) say or how strong the hard evidence is, you and 99% of the rest of Sydney fans will deny it because you don't like the conclusions it brings you to.

However I will say a few things.

Firstly, there is only so much room for Cronulla to grow out and the government will only allow you to grow so far up, so eventually Cronulla will be unable to grow anymore, and when it does it will still be an area that could covered by other clubs in the long run, with the right planning that is.

Secondly, the SL peace settlement as an argument against rationalisation is stupid because those mergers and regulations were not pre-planned with an end goal of what the league as a whole would look like or how the losses would be covered, and they were extreamly rushed.
Nor would I use mergers or relocation if I was the one rationalising the Sydney clubs.

Thridly, the Raiders crowds have been poor recently due too many things, but mainly because of 20 years of mediocrity on the field coinciding with 20 year of over achievement by our direct competitor, and a board that was openly hostile to the fans for a good 15 years of that time, we seem to be coming out of that period now and sudden and quite dramatic increases in members and crowds over the last few years so that all things going well our numbers should get back up where they should be soon.
Also crowds are really only a small factor in rationalisation, market size, potential growth of that market, and finances are all much more important.

Finally, the AFL are quickly heading towards disaster because of their refusal to deal with rationalisation heading towards the richer clubs openly revolting because of their taxes to keep the poor afloat.

No one knows what will happen in 30 years .

1) the game has and will continue to be about emotion,That forms its fan base and growing membership.

2)Well 10,000 residences required within 5 years in the Shire for starters.It will continue to grow in my lifetime.And that does not include the undeveloped areas I mentioned,one with ability for 2,000 residences.

3)"Covered by other clubs".The only one would be the Dragons ,and they basically have moved to the Illawarra. Sharks owning their own ground, and with the 700 plus and possibly a further 200 unit development added, they will be in a financial position to dictate terms.
The Shire has the benefit of not having a next door club so to speak.In fact I see the old Dragons territory being absorbed into Bulldogs

4) Is the SL peace deal a stupid argument?.Being involved for 4 years after it happened in the Nth Sydney area.I can assure you i met Bear's supporter who flicked rl ,and became Tah and/or Swans supporters.Ditto a couple from the West Tigers joint venture.Just the tip of an iceberg IMO>

 

[siv]

What concerns me has been a slow decline of the game from around 2009 at Tier 2 Tier 3 levels in NSW

Coming from 3 levels of RL overlaping. NRL RG, semi-pro 2nd Div and part-time Jim Bean Cup rather than playing at their appropriate levels

But my bigger concern is the decline of A grade district clubs

While we focus on the changes to inner city demographics

Wonder how big a impact the increase in Chinese/Indian heritage demographics is having on the game

 

[taipan]

Like sydneys west and the fact Penrith crowds are so low despite massive population growth most people moving into the cronulla region are from other parts of Sydney and already have a club. The nrl will always be hamstrung by its over saturation in Sydney, it will never have the balls again to do anything about that so will continue to throw massive amounts of tv generated revenue in the hope one day they become sustainable.

People from the East Coast have moved to Perth,they already have a club.No advantage to Perfff>

 

[taipan]

What concerns me has been a slow decline of the game from around 2009 at Tier 2 Tier 3 levels in NSW

Coming from 3 levels of RL overlaping. NRL RG, semi-pro 2nd Div and part-time Jim Bean Cup rather than playing at their appropriate levels

But my bigger concern is the decline of A grade district clubs

While we focus on the changes to inner city demographics

Wonder how big a impact the increase in Chinese/Indian heritage demographics is having on the game

No doubt the Chinese/Indian influx has made a difference.What gets me ever since that has been happening the so called experts at NRL Central have not marketed the game to these people to make them fans or even for some to try the game.

 

[The Great Dane]

No one knows what will happen in 30 years .

1) the game has and will continue to be about emotion,That forms its fan base and growing membership.

To it's fans yes, however it shouldn't be run by emotion, that's a good way to do a lot of stupid things, like introduce a new club pretty much in the territory of an old club because that old club had had huge success on the field in the last decade and we wanted to kneecap them!
Thus creating two weak clubs where we used to have one strong one, and wasting a spot in the competition on an area that gave us practically no tangible advantages that we didn't already have with just the old club alone.

2)Well 10,000 residences required within 5 years in the Shire for starters.It will continue to grow in my lifetime.And that does not include the undeveloped areas I mentioned,one with ability for 2,000 residences.

Even if you could convert all of those people into fans with a 100% success rate it still wouldn't be enough!

You'll need hundreds of thousands of new fans to become sustainable over the long run.

3)"Covered by other clubs".The only one would be the Dragons ,and they basically have moved to the Illawarra.Owning their own ground, and with the 700 plus and possibly a further 200 unit development added they will be in a financial position to dictate terms.
The Shire has the benefit of not having a next door clubs to speak.In fact I see the old Dragons territory being absorbed into Bulldogs

I don't want to get inbetween the dick measuring competition of Sharks fans and Dragons fans, so I'll ignore most of this and simply say that no club should be dictating terms to anyone.

You seem to think that I'm suggesting mergers, I'm not.

4) Is the SL peace deal a stupid argument?.Being involved for 4 years after it happened in the Nth Sydney area.I can assure you i met Bear's supporter who flicked rl ,and became Tah and/or Swans supporters.Ditto a couple from the West Tigers joint venture.Just the tip of an iceberg IMO>

Yes a very stupid one, because you are ignoring the mitigating factors of the SL war that wouldn't be issues anymore and saying that the situation and outcome would be exactly the same when obviously that isn't true.

You're saying that there can only be rationalisation that is implemented how it was 15 years ago after the SL war or no rationalisation, and that's simply not true, it's a false dichotomy!

BTW, I am an old Bears fan.

 

[taipan]

Who is to say any club will be weak,when the new grants plus 20 plus % comes to them.And on that basis provided they are getting the crowds and membership and their infrastructure is what it should be, why the hell should any be relocated.If they aren't performing so be it.

" Hundreds of thousands of new fans" needed .Don't think so. Average with very little cover and some poor scheduling was over 14,000 plus of late.Any club averaging 18-20,000 with the Tv deal monies would be more than happy.I'd further suggest their average this year will be well up.Membership as of 1st January is well up.
They will also have 2,000 people living right next door in new units.

The club at least will be in a position to improve infrastructure in the future and if an A League franchise is added plus owning a ground gives you leverage.

What happens if Canberra continues with their low crowds?They should be also averaging 20,000.Do they get relocated?Ditto the GC if they agree 15,000 or less or the Cowboys.

The intent was not a dick measuring comparison with the Dragons.It was simply to show, the areas are now different (St George with a large Chinese population and from other backgrounds) and the Illawara with people of backgrounds more inclined to be league followers.

I'm not suggesting you were open to mergers,I'm stating my experience with clients.
The area is fairly affluent middle-class,no code should ignore this ,nor areas like Manly.

The SL war and the peace deal had long term effects.It provided a boost for the Swans in terms of crowds due to disillusioned fans, that gave them further media support.It left North Sydney area pop what 3/4m?? going to Hornsby,a vacuum taken up by the Swans in particular and lesser degree the Tahs.

The growth of the Swan"s supporter base ,gave impetus to the AFL bringing in the GWS Gnats,thus the long term effect is still swirling around.Interesting to note the Swan's crowds from SL onwards and prior.

I'm not suggesting rationalisation,I'm proposing growth by addition.I cannot see for any rhyme or reason, why the NRL can't grow to 18 then 20 teams nationally.Provided all sustainable.

You may well be a former Bear's fan, but the only way many Bear's fans will get back in to the swing of things is
via a CC Bears club.You leave an area and AFL swoops.

Because I can tell you and this view is shared by more than a number of Sharks fans, if their club was chopped or relocated, they would not be jumping on another club.

If there was little competition from other codes in Sydney,the NRL would IMO give it some thought.ATM the last thing they need is more disgruntled or lost fans.

The one area that I do worry about is the Eastern Suburbs.

 

[Perth Red]

People from the East Coast have moved to Perth,they already have a club.No advantage to Perfff>

Yep,because those Perth fans can just hop on a train every weekend and head to sfs or anz to watch their team lol.

 

[taipan]

Yep,because those Perth fans can just hop on a train every weekend and head to sfs or anz to watch their team lol.

You don't get it.I'll spell it out clearly.

The large numbers of people from the East Coast generally have their current NRL club to which they stick.Meaning in Perth unless their old team is playing ,they more than likely will not attend.

Meaning their moving there ,will not assist push Perth crowds week after week.In effect Perth have to rely on born and bred locals, in a AFL mad city.And yes Perth's isolation is a hindrance correct,and perhaps that is another negative sorry to report.

 

[alien]

The large numbers of people from the East Coast generally have their current NRL club to which they stick.Meaning in Perth unless their old team is playing ,they more than likely will not attend.

Meaning their moving there ,will not assist push Perth crowds week after week.In effect Perth have to rely on born and bred locals, in a AFL mad city.And yes Perth's isolation is a hindrance correct,and perhaps that is another negative sorry to report.

It might be an AFL mad city, but with a population of 2 million, I'm sure they'd be fine with attendances.

 

[taipan]

I would also like them to be fine for attendances, week after week not the odd week.
FTM there are more pressing issues in rugby league ,which the likes of a couple here cannot get their heads around.

 

[alien]

I would also like them to be fine for attendances, week after week not the odd week.
FTM there are more pressing issues in rugby league ,which the likes of a couple here cannot get their heads around.

Yes it wouldn't just be the "odd week".

 

[T-Boon]

The large numbers of people from the East Coast generally have their current NRL club to which they stick.Meaning in Perth unless their old team is playing ,they more than likely will not attend.

Meaning their moving there ,will not assist push Perth crowds week after week.In effect Perth have to rely on born and bred locals, in a AFL mad city.And yes Perth's isolation is a hindrance correct,and perhaps that is another negative sorry to report.

Garbage. A new team in Perth would attract existing league fans (e.g: ex east coasters) in Perth even though they already have a team they support thousands of kilometres away. There is no baggage with a new team, no pre existing hate that would keep them away.
People who move over from the East Coast 5 or 10 years after their formation may feel differently as they have already established hate for the Perth team.