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18th club, whose next?

Pippen94

First Grade
Messages
6,408
Serious question.

How can NZ2 not be a threat to the Warriors when the latter draw the second lowest amount of revenue from football operations in the NRL, despite having an entire country to themselves?

NRL commercial revenue snapshot​


FY23 median: $15.7m (YoY growth: 15.1%)​
FY22 median: $12.7m (YoY growth: 34.8%)​
Chart below shows overall commercial revenue, by team, for FY 2023 ($m)
Table with 3 columns and 15 rows.​
Revenue ($m)Profit margin
Rabbitohs$23.5m56%
Dolphins$23.5m55%
Penrith$23.0m57%
Cowboys$22.7m63%
Eels$19.3m59%
Roosters$18.2m71%
Knights$17.8m63%
Bulldogs$15.7m49%
Titans$14.3m52%
Dragons$13.1m46%
Sharks$12.7m54%
Tigers$12.5m57%
Raiders$12.4m40%
Warriors$11.6m62%
Manly$11.5m55%

Source: NRL​

Despite people predicting the Dolphins to cannibalise support for the Broncos and Titans, the opposite held true. Both clubs increased their attendances and membership tally after the Dolphins entered the competition.

The reality is NZ2 will be a far riskier proposition than people on here realise.

I think cannibalizing existing teams is overblown
 
Messages
516
Wahs need a derby too

If another team in Brisbane grew the rugby league market which you’ve acknowledged then another team in a different city is even less chance of taking away support for the wahs

the issue is whether Christchurch can generate enough income as it’s a smaller population not what impact they have on the wahs which is basically nothing

Auckland to Christchurch is over 1000 kms which is similar to the distance between Gold Coast and Sydney

plus there’s a body of water separating them too
Supporter-wise, agree there'll be little overlap. CHCH is not only a fair distance, the whole SI itself holds themselves to a different identity than the rest of the country. Any league fans in CHCH and the broader SI will quickly align with NZ2, and any casual fans will back them just because they're not from Auckland.

Revenue-wise though, I think there's a fair question to ask. I think the Warriors numbers in that report are skewed a little due to it coming off a very rough 3 years due to covid. Commercial interest would've been weak coming into FY23 but I imagine is better now, so FY24 numbers should improve.

But still, not so much better as to suddenly double and match the top performing clubs, so I think the question about CHCH's commercial standing - in a much smaller market - is valid. Maybe the flash new stadium will have a halo effect. It should at least allow a bit of a premium on membership and ticket prices.
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
26,240
Supporter-wise, agree there'll be little overlap. CHCH is not only a fair distance, the whole SI itself holds themselves to a different identity than the rest of the country. Any league fans in CHCH and the broader SI will quickly align with NZ2, and any casual fans will back them just because they're not from Auckland.

Revenue-wise though, I think there's a fair question to ask. I think the Warriors numbers in that report are skewed a little due to it coming off a very rough 3 years due to covid. Commercial interest would've been weak coming into FY23 but I imagine is better now, so FY24 numbers should improve.

But still, not so much better as to suddenly double and match the top performing clubs, so I think the question about CHCH's commercial standing - in a much smaller market - is valid. Maybe the flash new stadium will have a halo effect. It should at least allow a bit of a premium on membership and ticket prices.
The best thing the afl does (to an extreme) is give their expansion clubs more money than the strong heartland clubs

so for example Brisbane get 15 million more pa from the afl than west coast eagles

the nrl should look at similar though not as extreme

so regional clubs I would give them an extra one million in grant (Wollongong, Campbelltown, Gold Coast, Newcastle, cowboys)

non heartland league states plus other countries 2 million extra grant
 
Messages
516
The best thing the afl does (to an extreme) is give their expansion clubs more money than the strong heartland clubs

so for example Brisbane get 15 million more pa from the afl than west coast eagles

the nrl should look at similar though not as extreme

so regional clubs I would give them an extra one million in grant (Wollongong, Campbelltown, Gold Coast, Newcastle, cowboys)

non heartland league states plus other countries 2 million extra grant
That would certainly help, especially considering the higher cost base just from the additional travel expense. Even more so if NZ2 wants to launch with Cup and age grade teams like the Warriors have now done. And if its all geared towards growing the game here, the pathway teams - and associated expense - are almost must haves.
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
26,240
That would certainly help, especially considering the higher cost base just from the additional travel expense. Even more so if NZ2 wants to launch with Cup and age grade teams like the Warriors have now done. And if it’s all geared towards growing the game here, the pathway teams - and associated expense - are almost must haves.
Nrl covers all travel costs ie planes and hotels

pretty sure it includes teams below nrl too

the club funds the juniors sides from under 16 up
 

flippikat

Bench
Messages
4,679
Serious question.

How can NZ2 not be a threat to the Warriors when the latter draw the second lowest amount of revenue from football operations in the NRL, despite having an entire country to themselves?

Despite people predicting the Dolphins to cannibalise support for the Broncos and Titans, the opposite held true. Both clubs increased their attendances and membership tally after the Dolphins entered the competition.

The reality is NZ2 will be a far riskier proposition than people on here realise.
In answer to your two points...

NZ 2 in Christchurch is geographically distant to Auckland - and if they market themselves as South Island then they'll grow the active NRL fan base here.

Brisbane is a different situation - getting to games is cross-city travel, not traveling across the whole country.. and we need to be careful that Brisbane isn't oversaturated. Putting a 2nd team in was always going to draw the "I love NRL, but don't like the Broncos.. give me another local option" crowd, but a 3rd team is tricky - are there many "I love NRL but don't like the Broncos AND the Dolphins (and the Titans for that matter)" fans there? Keep in mind that with the A-league, 3rd teams in Sydney & Brisbane have struggled.

You could argue that the way around it is location/suburb based, and putting a team covering South Brisbane and/or West Brisbane/Ipswich is a good selling point, but the danger in that is it could lead down the same road we have with Sydney, where some teams support is limited to their suburb(s)...
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
26,240
In answer to your two points...

NZ 2 in Christchurch is geographically distant to Auckland - and if they market themselves as South Island then they'll grow the active NRL fan base here.

Brisbane is a different situation - getting to games is cross-city travel, not traveling across the whole country.. and we need to be careful that Brisbane isn't oversaturated. Putting a 2nd team in was always going to draw the "I love NRL, but don't like the Broncos.. give me another local option" crowd, but a 3rd team is tricky - are there many "I love NRL but don't like the Broncos AND the Dolphins (and the Titans for that matter)" fans there? Keep in mind that with the A-league, 3rd teams in Sydney & Brisbane have struggled.

You could argue that the way around it is location/suburb based, and putting a team covering South Brisbane and/or West Brisbane/Ipswich is a good selling point, but the danger in that is it could lead down the same road we have with Sydney, where some teams support is limited to their suburb(s)...
He’s arguing for another Brisbane team too lol
 
Messages
516
Nrl covers all travel costs ie planes and hotels

pretty sure it includes teams below nrl too

the club funds the juniors sides from under 16 up
Ah ok, I didn't know that, thanks. If that's the case, makes me wonder why it took us so long to get age grade teams going again after NYC ended. Covid stuffed things for a while obviously but there was a couple years beforehand where I dont think we had anything
 
Messages
14,161
The best thing the afl does (to an extreme) is give their expansion clubs more money than the strong heartland clubs

so for example Brisbane get 15 million more pa from the afl than west coast eagles

the nrl should look at similar though not as extreme

so regional clubs I would give them an extra one million in grant (Wollongong, Campbelltown, Gold Coast, Newcastle, cowboys)

non heartland league states plus other countries 2 million extra grant
AwFuL can get away with it because their clubs don't have the same voting rights as the ones in the NRL. If the AwFuL clubs had the same voting rights then they would be against giving handouts to the Lions and Suns.
 
Messages
14,161
In answer to your two points...

NZ 2 in Christchurch is geographically distant to Auckland - and if they market themselves as South Island then they'll grow the active NRL fan base here.

Brisbane is a different situation - getting to games is cross-city travel, not traveling across the whole country.. and we need to be careful that Brisbane isn't oversaturated. Putting a 2nd team in was always going to draw the "I love NRL, but don't like the Broncos.. give me another local option" crowd, but a 3rd team is tricky - are there many "I love NRL but don't like the Broncos AND the Dolphins (and the Titans for that matter)" fans there? Keep in mind that with the A-league, 3rd teams in Sydney & Brisbane have struggled.

You could argue that the way around it is location/suburb based, and putting a team covering South Brisbane and/or West Brisbane/Ipswich is a good selling point, but the danger in that is it could lead down the same road we have with Sydney, where some teams support is limited to their suburb(s)...

The elephant in the room that you are ignoring is revenue from football operations. Warriors generate just $11.6m, despite having over 5m people to themselves and playing games all over New Zealand.

Broncos generate well over $40m. Dolphins generate $23.5m. Cowboys generate $22.7m. Titans generate $14.3m, placing them ahead of Dragons, Sharks, Tigers, Raiders, Warriors and Sea Eagles.

Tigers also have $135m in assets and have a high performance training centre. The club is NRL ready.

There are 1.6m people south of the Brisbane River and zero NRL teams.
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
26,240
AwFuL can get away with it because their clubs don't have the same voting rights as the ones in the NRL. If the AwFuL clubs had the same voting rights then they would be against giving handouts to the Lions and Suns.
They are still in favour of the funding model

they understand the value of expansion
 
Messages
14,161
He’s arguing for another Brisbane team too lol
Yes I am.

The two richest rugby league clubs in the world -- drawing higher attendances than any one else -- are from Brisbane.

There's 1.6m people south of the Brisbane River with zero teams.

Tigers have $135m in assets and a high performance training centre. The chairman of their bid, Shane Edwards, was Broncos CEO between 1995 and 2002. This is a club ready for the NRL. It's insane that people want them to wait 10 or 20 years when they're the only bid that can enter the NRL now. Places like Perth and Christchurch need a decade to get their infrastructure in order. PNG needs 20 or 30 years of solid growth to have any chance.
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
26,240
Yes I am.

The two richest rugby league clubs in the world -- drawing higher attendances than any one else -- are from Brisbane.

There's 1.6m people south of the Brisbane River with zero teams.

Tigers have $135m in assets and a high performance training centre. The chairman of their bid, Shane Edwards, was Broncos CEO between 1995 and 2002. This is a club ready for the NRL. It's insane that people want them to wait 10 or 20 years whem they're the only bid that can enter the NRL now. Places like Perth and Christchurch need a decade to get their infrastructure in order. PNG needs 20 or 30 years of solid growth to have any chance.
Christchurch will have so financial impact on the wahs

now you are using a different argument
 

Wb1234

Referee
Messages
26,240
That’s the other thing afl does is give priority draft picks to expansion clubs.

Gold Coast has had loads
 
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