MugaB
Coach
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THIS WEEK IN THE MAROON OBSERVER
Assuming the Perth Bears are as done a deal as PNG was, or as desperate journalists on Twitter are to convince you that no really this time they actually have the scoop unlike the other guys that said they did, the upside, if there is to be one, will be the precedent of a transfer of a rugby league brand out of Sydney into another place. Even though this has been demonstrated in the AFL (and numerous other sports), that doesn’t seem to be sufficient to convince many people that their club should take the plunge, relocate and prosper.
While the NRL clubs’ financial situation is in a relatively good place at the minute (big asterisk for previously discussed reasons), that won’t last forever. Dark economic times will return, as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, although it’s probably a couple of TV deals into the future. When that happens, if there is a relocation precedent, then that might be more encouraging for weaker clubs to look at a future where they move to Adelaide, Christchurch or elsewhere. The presumed success of the Perth Bears will help with that line of argument, even if “well that was different because the Bears hadn’t been in the NRL for more than 20 years” will prevail among a certain subset of lead paint chip eating fans. Of course, the contrary case will apply if the whole thing is a disaster.
Even given how astonishingly quickly the switch flipped from PNG to WA, there is still a semblance of process to follow. The Controlling Body is currently accepting expressions of interest. Those EoI will be evaluated after the close by the expansion committe. Then the committee will ask Peter V’Landys want he wants and that’s what they’ll go with.
There are supposedly 11 bids, even though I think I can only name seven (Easts Tigers, two South Island bids, Bears, WA, PNG, Fiji) that notionally exist, so not sure who the other four are. If $30 million is the buy-in, then WA Bears could do it (if we put aside obvious alignment concerns between North Sydney and Perth), PNG and probably the Easts/Brisbane Tigers.
Even if we put aside obvious logistical concerns, PNG only works with substantial government backing but if they miss this window, then they need Marape and Albanese to get re-elected in 2027 and 2025 respectively to have any hope of NRL19.
Then again, Pauline Hanson, who I didn't realise was still alive let alone in the Senate, is against it, so I guess I’m now the most rabid PNG expansion enthusiast you can imagine. Have we considered granting them two licences? Three? They can have a couple of Sydney teams to sweeten the deal.
I’d be surprised if there’s anyone else out there with the kind of resources on hand for rugby league purposes needed and it’s not clear how else the NRL gets to 20 other than those three options. While owning a NRL club is a profitable enterprise, it’s not that profitable and NZ2 isn’t raising $30 million without private equity ghouls or similar who will want better returns.
If you’re the Tigers, then you’re banking on the NRL being committed enough to the goal of 20 by 32 that you can let the WA Bears get the 18th licence, wait for the democratic process to kill PNG and then be in the strongest position for NRL19, 20 at worst even if PNG somehow makes it to the pitch.
It’s not like the NRL is going to fund this themselves with some sort of high level strategy.
Assuming the Perth Bears are as done a deal as PNG was, or as desperate journalists on Twitter are to convince you that no really this time they actually have the scoop unlike the other guys that said they did, the upside, if there is to be one, will be the precedent of a transfer of a rugby league brand out of Sydney into another place. Even though this has been demonstrated in the AFL (and numerous other sports), that doesn’t seem to be sufficient to convince many people that their club should take the plunge, relocate and prosper.
While the NRL clubs’ financial situation is in a relatively good place at the minute (big asterisk for previously discussed reasons), that won’t last forever. Dark economic times will return, as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, although it’s probably a couple of TV deals into the future. When that happens, if there is a relocation precedent, then that might be more encouraging for weaker clubs to look at a future where they move to Adelaide, Christchurch or elsewhere. The presumed success of the Perth Bears will help with that line of argument, even if “well that was different because the Bears hadn’t been in the NRL for more than 20 years” will prevail among a certain subset of lead paint chip eating fans. Of course, the contrary case will apply if the whole thing is a disaster.
Even given how astonishingly quickly the switch flipped from PNG to WA, there is still a semblance of process to follow. The Controlling Body is currently accepting expressions of interest. Those EoI will be evaluated after the close by the expansion committe. Then the committee will ask Peter V’Landys want he wants and that’s what they’ll go with.
There are supposedly 11 bids, even though I think I can only name seven (Easts Tigers, two South Island bids, Bears, WA, PNG, Fiji) that notionally exist, so not sure who the other four are. If $30 million is the buy-in, then WA Bears could do it (if we put aside obvious alignment concerns between North Sydney and Perth), PNG and probably the Easts/Brisbane Tigers.
Even if we put aside obvious logistical concerns, PNG only works with substantial government backing but if they miss this window, then they need Marape and Albanese to get re-elected in 2027 and 2025 respectively to have any hope of NRL19.
Then again, Pauline Hanson, who I didn't realise was still alive let alone in the Senate, is against it, so I guess I’m now the most rabid PNG expansion enthusiast you can imagine. Have we considered granting them two licences? Three? They can have a couple of Sydney teams to sweeten the deal.
I’d be surprised if there’s anyone else out there with the kind of resources on hand for rugby league purposes needed and it’s not clear how else the NRL gets to 20 other than those three options. While owning a NRL club is a profitable enterprise, it’s not that profitable and NZ2 isn’t raising $30 million without private equity ghouls or similar who will want better returns.
If you’re the Tigers, then you’re banking on the NRL being committed enough to the goal of 20 by 32 that you can let the WA Bears get the 18th licence, wait for the democratic process to kill PNG and then be in the strongest position for NRL19, 20 at worst even if PNG somehow makes it to the pitch.
It’s not like the NRL is going to fund this themselves with some sort of high level strategy.
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