South Island is definitely the place for NZ2.
Has Sky been asked how much they will pay for NZ2?
Good question, and to be honest I have no specific details on that.
I imagine going from 17 to 18 teams (+1 game per weekend) will earn a bit more TV money from Sky - but that 18th team could be from anywhere to get that. As would the jump from 18 to 20.
A new team in Christchurch might not bring new subscribers - especially from Christchurch where there's a huge Crusaders fanbase that already have Sky), but bringing existing subscribers over to watch those games is attractive for advertisers.
The free-to-air situation is interesting over here, and is worth an overview.
Sky have the Pay TV AND the FTA rights in NZ - so they usually simulcast ONE of the Friday night games live on their "Sky Open" FTA channel (usually the early one I think - but this week it's the sole Friday game kicking off at 10pm NZT).. then a Saturday game with kickoff delayed by an hour.
As for the other 2 FTA players - I think neither TV3 (owned by Discovery) & TVNZ (Government owned) have the money or the will to outbid Sky for FTA rights.. and IMO even unlikely to "buy games from Sky".. why?
Well, just need to look at recent developments in the industry.
TV3
A few months ago Discovery made the decision to close TV3's newsroom entirely to save money, as the plummeting economy slams advertising spend.
Their news operation (branded as "Newshub") ended last Friday - Breakfast show, midday news bulletin, Newshub at 6pm (hour-long flagship news), and the late news show all GONE, journalists & crew all let go.
Luckily for some, newspaper conglomerate/website Stuff (formerly the NZ branch of Fairfax newspapers before it got sold to CEO
Sinead Boucher for $1 in a "peppercorn sale") stepped in.
Now Stuff are making a bare-bones 6pm news hour (half hour on weekends) under the "Three News" banner using some of the laid-off newshub staff.
TL: DR - if they're axing the NEWSROOM, no way are Discovery opening their wallets for big-money sports rights!
TVNZ (State-owned Enterprise, operates as a Government owned company, advertising and all)
Oh gees... well TVNZ's advertising money is shrinking too.. so THEY have cut back shows too - no midday news, no late news, no "Fair Go" (consumer affairs show), soap-opera Shortland Street being cut back from 5 days to 3 days per week.. and a fair number of redundancies there t'boot.
We have a conservative (National/ACT/NZ First) coalition Government too, and any hint of "unnecessary spending" by Government entities is closely examined & if it doesn't "vibe" with their values - and especially those of their economically dry donors - it's cut before lunchtime.
There's been talk in the past that NZ First may try to introduce anti-syphoning legislation because it plays well into their "make NZ great like it was 50 years ago" ethos, but they've never really pushed the issue - and frankly I think they'd be pushing uphill to get that past their coalition partners.
Our best hope for competition to Sky is a disruptor - likely some online streaming service to outbid Sky to get the rights.. but our TOTAL market here is too small to really make that work with "NZ Only" - just look at Spark Sport.
Maybe the real ideal situation is for a huge online streamer to buy NZ and Australian rights outbidding Sky & Fox, and maybe play a game or two free-to-air through whatever delivery channel.