18th club, whose next?

[siv]

I do not advocate a conference finals system

Just pools to support the following

Team within their pool play home & awsy across 1 season
Team cross pools play home & away over 2 seasons

 

[Brick Tamland]

IMO, the next team will be NZ 2.

The NRL telegraphed for years where they wanted team 17 (Brisbane, in particular Redcliffe) ) and they've already been throwing out suggestions for team 18 being in NZ.

• Another kiwi based team means less Oz based (particularly Sydney) teams having to host the Friday 6pm (8pm NZ) games. Fox and News limited love this timeslot, so its not going anywhere, which then means someone needs to host it. Warriors could host 7 or 8 in this slot, 2nd NZ team the same, which would mean 15 or so games hosted in NZ.
• Warriors love the Friday 6pm (NZ 8pm) slot for the same reason the Broncos love Friday 8pm - its primetime for corporates, spectator attendance and tv ratings
• The increased Sky TV deal shows there is an increasing appetite for rugby league in NZ.
• a quarter of the NRL players are from NZ, a 2nd NZ team would allow more of them to stay at home to play the game
• Even though Covid ruined it, the NRL parachuting Gould into pathways development in NZ

It's a pure ' fish where the fish are ' line of thinking.

If it is NZ for team 18, then my guess is team 18 going to Auckland:

• Both teams could play their games out of Mt Smart Stadium. 24 games a year may be able to convince the NZ government/Auckland council to tip in money to rebuild. Or maybe build a new stadium elsewhere in Auckland which Warriors and NZZ 2 could play out of? Maybe derby games at Eden Park or even the Auckland downtown stadium if that were ever to get built?
• Biggest population by far in NZ
• Access to the corporates which are mostly based in Auckland

 

[Colk]

IMO, the next team will be NZ 2.

The NRL telegraphed for years where they wanted team 17 (Brisbane, in particular Redcliffe) ) and they've already been throwing out suggestions for team 18 being in NZ.

• Another kiwi based team means less Oz based (particularly Sydney) teams having to host the Friday 6pm (8pm NZ) games. Fox and News limited love this timeslot, so its not going anywhere, which then means someone needs to host it. Warriors could host 7 or 8 in this slot, 2nd NZ team the same, which would mean 15 or so games hosted in NZ.
• Warriors love the Friday 6pm (NZ 8pm) slot for the same reason the Broncos love Friday 8pm - its primetime for corporates, spectator attendance and tv ratings
• The increased Sky TV deal shows there is an increasing appetite for rugby league in NZ.
• a quarter of the NRL players are from NZ, a 2nd NZ team would allow more of them to stay at home to play the game
• Even though Covid ruined it, the NRL parachuting Gould into pathways development in NZ

It's a pure ' fish where the fish are ' line of thinking.

If it is NZ for team 18, then my guess is team 18 going to Auckland:

• Both teams could play their games out of Mt Smart Stadium. 24 games a year may be able to convince the NZ government/Auckland council to tip in money to rebuild. Or maybe build a new stadium elsewhere in Auckland which Warriors and NZZ 2 could play out of? Maybe derby games at Eden Park or even the Auckland downtown stadium if that were ever to get built?
• Biggest population by far in NZ
• Access to the corporates which are mostly based in Auckland

I think NZ 2 will happen but they have got to do something to help the Warriors and this new team -give them dispensations, free money to buy All Blacks. There is no point in having another team in NZ if they are just going to be another Warriors - all that will do will be to splinter the support of the Warriors and garner very little interest against RU over there. The ARLC need to think about what they actually want to achieve in 10, 20, 30 years rather than see the immediate sugar hit of TV dollars.

Another thing which is really important to note is most of the islanders or Kiwis didn’t actually start in NZ etc but have either been born or raised in Australia. Kind of underlines my first point I guess about trying to improve support and development opportunities over there

 

[Brick Tamland]

And as a follow on, i don't see Perth getting a team, whether that be as team 18, 19 or 20, purely on the basis that the NRL basically said the only reason they expanded with the Dolphins was because the broadcasters would fund it. I don't think Fox, Sky or 9 would be prepared to pay more for a Perth team.

In fact, i could see the NRL not being interested in teams 19 or 20 at all and there being no further expansion for many years/decades after team 18 comes in.

With super league in England having lunchtime kickoffs (Saturday 1230pm uk time) next season, i think Fox will end up getting the rights to show that game as from early April to early October this will be a 9:30pm Saturday kickoff in Oz.

From Fox Sports point of view, why would they keep increasing how much they are paying (~$15m for each additional team), when they could fill that timeslot for far cheaper with live footy from England? They still get a game to show live, and they'll pay a fraction of what they would have to pay the NRL to convince them to add teams 19 and 20.

They might even be able to convince the english super league to add another game for 1230pm Sunday (UK time) which would be 9:30pm Sunday night. Not quite as good as 6pm Sunday would be for tv viewers if they had perth, but their thinking would be solely the amount of cash they'd save.

For Sky NZ, that late saturday timeslot that Perth would make possible would be 11:30pm in NZ, so i can't see them giving a shit about it either.

Nine just aren't interested in the Saturday games, so i can't see them paying any extra for another team(s)

 

[Colk]

That would have the added bonus of making them hated by Australian RL fans, which will add spice to their games and turn them into a bigger draw when they play in Australia.

Perhaps.

I think of it this way - you’re hurting the competition in that marketplace by making Rugby Union weaker and making RL stronger. You also generate greater interest and make the game more attractive. These are all good things.

It is also correcting one thing that is of distinct disadvantage to Warriors and regional clubs: that is to attract talent. Unless you are developed in that area than those clubs have to pay above the market rates. That’s nothing against clubs like the Warriors or the areas they represent, it’s just a fact that someone who lives in Sydney is more likely to stay in Sydney then take the plunge and move to Townsville, Canberra, Newcastle or NZ etc. Until such time as those clubs are producing NZ born and raised players (let’s face it most Kiwis/Islanders playing in the NRL have either been born here or lived a majority of their lives here) then you need to assist them to be competitive.

 

[Colk]

And as a follow on, i don't see Perth getting a team, whether that be as team 18, 19 or 20, purely on the basis that the NRL basically said the only reason they expanded with the Dolphins was because the broadcasters would fund it. I don't think Fox, Sky or 9 would be prepared to pay more for a Perth team.

In fact, i could see the NRL not being interested in teams 19 or 20 at all and there being no further expansion for many years/decades after team 18 comes in.

With super league in England having lunchtime kickoffs (Saturday 1230pm uk time) next season, i think Fox will end up getting the rights to show that game as from early April to early October this will be a 9:30pm Saturday kickoff in Oz.

From Fox Sports point of view, why would they keep increasing how much they are paying (~$15m for each additional team), when they could fill that timeslot for far cheaper with live footy from England? They still get a game to show live, and they'll pay a fraction of what they would have to pay the NRL to convince them to add teams 19 and 20.

They might even be able to convince the english super league to add another game for 1230pm Sunday (UK time) which would be 9:30pm Sunday night. Not quite as good as 6pm Sunday would be for tv viewers if they had perth, but their thinking would be solely the amount of cash they'd save.

For Sky NZ, that late saturday timeslot that Perth would make possible would be 11:30pm in NZ, so i can't see them giving a shit about it either.

Nine just aren't interested in the Saturday games, so i can't see them paying any extra for another team(s)

You’re right. That’s just shows the lack of ambition that the game has though

 

[Colk]

Way Way Too much is being made of travelling though - It's part of their job no matter which team they would play for it will involve travel.

When you look at the travel teams in overseas sporting comps do it is very very very very very minimal in the NRL compared to these teams.

As i said on another post quite a few of the Atlanta Braves players and Manager/Coaches hadn't been home since January and their season finished when they won game 6 of the World Series in early November. They been travelling all over the US living out of suitcases racking up millions of flying miles and across multiple times zones etc etc.

Only a few of the players live in Atlanta

Didn't seem to impair their performances - in fact they got better the longer the season went - it was a long season - Pre-season is 8 to 10 games 162 game Regular Season / Division Series play off's 4 games/ National League Championship series 6 games/ World Series Championship Series 6 games

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Pretty poor example to use American sports as a countervailing argument. You generally have what 30 odd sides in their competitions so they are forced to use conferences. They also have multiple large cities and one team towns and don’t have nine teams in the one city; so essentially every team travels and nobody is disadvantaged in their conference system.

 

[Colk]

So if they keep adding teams it could get to the stage were teams are playing each other once. The current format is stale and and the disjointed inequitable draw and format will only get worse the more teams they add.

Conferences and or Divisions ensure all teams play the same teams the same number of times- also breathes life into the comp which is increasingly becoming more and more flat and way too predicable as more teams are in final contentions.

You have to have something different that will grow the game and maintain the interest as currently you virtually know which teams will make the 8 at the half way or less point of the season

If 18 Teams a 2 conference of 9 teams each is the way to go with a top 10 finals series - top 4 from each conference qualify for the cross over finals series and the last 2 places by way of wild card play offs between 5 v 6 from the difference conferences.- see 1998 final series format when there was a top 10.

Or top 5 finals series in each conference and the 2 conference winners play off superbowl style.

20 team comp - 4 divisions of 5 teams - 12 team cross over finals series - division winner have the first week off

Week 1 A) 2 vs 3 in cross over finals series - winners advance to week 2 and losers eliminated
Week 2 B) 1 vs 1's in cross over games - winners to week 4 and losers to week 3
Week 2 C) 4 winners of A -2 games - winners to week 3 and losers eliminated
Week 3 D) Losers of B vs Winners of C - 2 games - winners to week 4 and losers eliminated
Week 4 E) Winners of B v Winners of D - 2 Games - Winners to Week 4 and losers eliminated
Week 5 F) Winners of E - GF

What is the actual problem with playing each other only once - if you can’t play each other twice then doing it that way is a much fairer way of doing it.

You can just extend the finals by another month or so. If everybody so enamoured with poaching American ideas on scheduling, why don’t we introduce series rather than knockouts (best of three preliminaries et al)

If you could line up the start of the English Super League with the start of the NRL final series then even better - teams not in the finals could have players loaned out to the English system and indeed vice versa which could improve the quality of both competitions. Less can sometimes be more

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

And as a follow on, i don't see Perth getting a team, whether that be as team 18, 19 or 20, purely on the basis that the NRL basically said the only reason they expanded with the Dolphins was because the broadcasters would fund it. I don't think Fox, Sky or 9 would be prepared to pay more for a Perth team.

In fact, i could see the NRL not being interested in teams 19 or 20 at all and there being no further expansion for many years/decades after team 18 comes in.

With super league in England having lunchtime kickoffs (Saturday 1230pm uk time) next season, i think Fox will end up getting the rights to show that game as from early April to early October this will be a 9:30pm Saturday kickoff in Oz.

From Fox Sports point of view, why would they keep increasing how much they are paying (~$15m for each additional team), when they could fill that timeslot for far cheaper with live footy from England? They still get a game to show live, and they'll pay a fraction of what they would have to pay the NRL to convince them to add teams 19 and 20.

They might even be able to convince the english super league to add another game for 1230pm Sunday (UK time) which would be 9:30pm Sunday night. Not quite as good as 6pm Sunday would be for tv viewers if they had perth, but their thinking would be solely the amount of cash they'd save.

For Sky NZ, that late saturday timeslot that Perth would make possible would be 11:30pm in NZ, so i can't see them giving a shit about it either.

Nine just aren't interested in the Saturday games, so i can't see them paying any extra for another team(s)

That's why I think Brisbane 3 is a serious possibility to win the 18th licence, provided The Dolphins pull good ratings. Ch9 and Foxtel gain f**k all from NZ 2 as Australians aren't interested in watching NZ teams. The money will come from Brisbane 3 as its population is nearing 3 million over the next 10 to 15 years and there's plenty of people living in regional Queensland who will watch Brisbane teams.

 

[Perth Red]

That's why I think Brisbane 3 is a serious possibility to win the 18th licence, provided The Dolphins pull good ratings. Ch9 and Foxtel gain f**k all from NZ 2 as Australians aren't interested in watching NZ teams. The money will come from Brisbane 3 as its population is nearing 3 million over the next 10 to 15 years and there's plenty of people living in regional Queensland who will watch Brisbane teams.

The value will come form the extra time slot, not the team involved. The fta extra ratings are minimal in the grand scheme of things. Only reason fox stumped up for dolphins was to get broncos off fta and drive up kayo subscriptions in brisbane.

 

[Get Rid of The Donkeys]

The value will come form the extra time slot, not the team involved. The fta extra ratings are minimal in the grand scheme of things. Only reason fox stumped up for dolphins was to get broncos off fta and drive up kayo subscriptions in brisbane.

NZ2 would ease the burden of Australian teams hosting the 6pm Fri game.

The biggest problem for Perth is its timeslots offer nothing to Sky NZ, who just increased their payment for the broadcast rights. They'll want NZ 2.

 

[Perth Red]

NZ2 would ease the burden of Australian teams hosting the 6pm Fri game.

The biggest problem for Perth is its timeslots offer nothing to Sky NZ, who just increased their payment for the broadcast rights. They'll want NZ 2.

True but the real value is in selling a new fta slot in australia. Re the nz deal, it went up $12mill a year and we dont know how much of that is increased contra, I suspect quite a bit given what was talked abou at the time in regards to promotion, and that deal is for this period, so u less it’s already been agreed before 2028 sky nz haven’t paid anything yet for another team.
it might turn out that the $’s are there from nz tv to drive the decision that way, but then nrl misses out on the metro reach in australia yet again which is where most of the money is in reality, and more damaging long term it is giving up ever having a national comp to challenge afl with.
I can’t see going to twenty teams for decades if ever.

 

[Brick Tamland]

True but the real value is in selling a new fta slot in australia. Re the nz deal, it went up $12mill a year and we dont know how much of that is increased contra, I suspect quite a bit given what was talked abou at the time in regards to promotion, and that deal is for this period, so u less it’s already been agreed before 2028 sky nz haven’t paid anything yet for another team.
it might turn out that the $’s are there from nz tv to drive the decision that way, but then nrl misses out on the metro reach in australia yet again which is where most of the money is in reality, and more damaging long term it is giving up ever having a national comp to challenge afl with.
I can’t see going to twenty teams for decades if ever.

When do you think that new timeslot will be, and which network(s) do you think will chase it?

Thursday 10pm Oz east coast (midnight NZ) - with work and school for the majority of the population the next day, can't see this one being sought after by Nine, Fox or Sky.

Friday 10pm Oz east coast (midnight NZ) - This probably works for Fox, but games would still be finishing at near midnight. How many people would actually be watching at that point? Nine and Sky won't care

Saturday 9:30pm Oz east coast (11:30 pm NZ) - I mentioned earlier, next season will see the ESL have a game kicking off in this timeslot. From Fox's point of view, why would they pay $15m for Perth and get this timeslot for 12 games a year (max, would likely be less than this) when they could get a full season of games from the ESL at a fraction of the cost? Nine and Sky won't care

Sunday 6pm Oz east coast (8pm NZ) - This works for Fox and Sky, but its at most 12 games a season. What are they doing for the rest of the season? Nine won't care as it would interrupt their news programming

The networks crave stability of programming, so unless 2 perth teams come in to fill up a full season of the extra timeslot, i can't see Fox, or Sky being willing to pay for it, when they can get a full season of content from the ESL for much lower cost. Nine just won't give a shit

 

[Colk]

When do you think that new timeslot will be, and which network(s) do you think will chase it?

Thursday 10pm Oz east coast (midnight NZ) - with work and school for the majority of the population the next day, can't see this one being sought after by Nine, Fox or Sky.

Friday 10pm Oz east coast (midnight NZ) - This probably works for Fox, but games would still be finishing at near midnight. How many people would actually be watching at that point? Nine and Sky won't care

Saturday 9:30pm Oz east coast (11:30 pm NZ) - I mentioned earlier, next season will see the ESL have a game kicking off in this timeslot. From Fox's point of view, why would they pay $15m for Perth and get this timeslot for 12 games a year (max, would likely be less than this) when they could get a full season of games from the ESL at a fraction of the cost? Nine and Sky won't care

Sunday 6pm Oz east coast (8pm NZ) - This works for Fox and Sky, but its at most 12 games a season. What are they doing for the rest of the season? Nine won't care as it would interrupt their news programming

The networks crave stability of programming, so unless 2 perth teams come in to fill up a full season of the extra timeslot, i can't see Fox, or Sky being willing to pay for it, when they can get a full season of content from the ESL for much lower cost. Nine just won't give a shit

Why would they be playing at 10pm on a Friday night?

I think the Thursday night thing is a problem for everyone. It is not a particularly good time slot for any team.

Does anybody really care about the ESL? Their comp is pretty dire for the most part.

I actually think you’re right about NZ 2. The TV time slot created by another NZ side is a positive but I don’t think the Perth one is a negative either.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

And as a follow on, i don't see Perth getting a team, whether that be as team 18, 19 or 20, purely on the basis that the NRL basically said the only reason they expanded with the Dolphins was because the broadcasters would fund it. I don't think Fox, Sky or 9 would be prepared to pay more for a Perth team.

In fact, i could see the NRL not being interested in teams 19 or 20 at all and there being no further expansion for many years/decades after team 18 comes in.

With super league in England having lunchtime kickoffs (Saturday 1230pm uk time) next season, i think Fox will end up getting the rights to show that game as from early April to early October this will be a 9:30pm Saturday kickoff in Oz.

From Fox Sports point of view, why would they keep increasing how much they are paying (~$15m for each additional team), when they could fill that timeslot for far cheaper with live footy from England? They still get a game to show live, and they'll pay a fraction of what they would have to pay the NRL to convince them to add teams 19 and 20.

They might even be able to convince the english super league to add another game for 1230pm Sunday (UK time) which would be 9:30pm Sunday night. Not quite as good as 6pm Sunday would be for tv viewers if they had perth, but their thinking would be solely the amount of cash they'd save.

For Sky NZ, that late saturday timeslot that Perth would make possible would be 11:30pm in NZ, so i can't see them giving a shit about it either.

Nine just aren't interested in the Saturday games, so i can't see them paying any extra for another team(s)

For me, the vaule in Perth is in the extra game and the timeslot. In terms of TV viewers and STV subscribers, that would be a longer term benefit to the TV companies. We only need to look at how much the Melbourne audience has grown for big matches to see the value of engaging a new market with their own team.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Why would they be playing at 10pm on a Friday night?

I think the Thursday night thing is a problem for everyone. It is not a particularly good time slot for any team.

Does anybody really care about the ESL? Their comp is pretty dire for the most part.

I actually think you’re right about NZ 2. The TV time slot created by another NZ side is a positive but I don’t think the Perth one is a negative either.

That was a point re Perth Red saying that Perth will bring a new timeslot. The options for new timeslots being Thursday 10pm, Friday 10pm, Saturday 9:30pm and Sunday 6pm (all times east coast time)

 

[Colk]

For me, the vaule in Perth is in the extra game and the timeslot. In terms of TV viewers and STV subscribers, that would be a longer term benefit to the TV companies. We only need to look at how much the Melbourne audience has grown for big matches to see the value of engaging a new market with their own team.

Also you have two million odd people and not a lot of subscribers so there is potential there if you wanted to chase it. Nevertheless, I think the best chance of a Perth side would have actually come if Seven won the FTA rights.

 

[Brick Tamland]

For me, the vaule in Perth is in the extra game and the timeslot. In terms of TV viewers and STV subscribers, that would be a longer term benefit to the TV companies. We only need to look at how much the Melbourne audience has grown for big matches to see the value of engaging a new market with their own team.

I think you'll find Fox value that extra timeslot a lot lower than you think.

Getting Nine in Perth interested could create long term value but

 

[Brick Tamland]

Also you have two million odd people and not a lot of subscribers so there is potential there if you wanted to chase it. Nevertheless, I think the best chance of a Perth side would have actually come if Seven won the FTA rights.

I think you'll find that with most Perth sporting teams (West Coast, Fremantle, Scorchers, Wildcats, Fever) already on Fox/Kayo, if people in Perth/WA wanted Fox/Kayo, they'd already have it

 

[Colk]

That was a point re Perth Red saying that Perth will bring a new timeslot. The options for new timeslots being Thursday 10pm, Friday 10pm, Saturday 9:30pm and Sunday 6pm (all times east coast time)

I get that time would be east coast but I have never understood why we play at 8pm instead of 7:30pm every week. The only reason why I could keep it at 8pm on a week would be if a NZ side were playing at home earlier at 6pm. If the NZ team aren’t playing at home then the 6pm time is a terrible time.

With a Perth side you could start their game at 7 or 7:30pm and beam in on the east coast at 9-9:30. If the NZ side were playing at 6pm EST then you could also bring the Perth game forward at 6:30 their time, 8:30 EST.

In a perfect world you would have both because it just gives you a lot of flexibility