So the main issue I've seen with the 'debate' of the whole 18th team is the Juniors and funding. Isn't the purpose of expansion to increase the participation of juniors in that area so they can aspire to one day represent their city's team / a team within the sport they play?
With Perth - They definitely do have a consortium ready to fund a bid for an NRL team. They definitely have a set out plan to increase junior participation. They MOST LIKELY have everything ready to go in alignment with the ARLC's guidelines regarding expansion. Just depends on how hard they push.
PNG - have the backing of the Aus government. Yet, as a realist, I do not think they should be the next team. Would love to see an official team do not get me wrong, but I just do not think it is the right way to go as of this moment. Maybe within a decade ?
NZ2 - Great potential as a bid, and with RU having issues in Aus right now (and to an extent, NZ too with dwindling crowds), along with the increased popularity of the Warriors right now, it would make sense to introduce. How they do it though is the biggest hurdle they will face, along with the location of the team in NZ.
Brisbane3 - Similar case to the Perth Bid, practically have everything ready to go and are pushing hard. Just whether or not they get the green light.
Personal preference for side 18 is Perth. How can we call ourselves a NATIONAL comp when we occupy the East only? Invest in the West, increase participation, create junior pathways, etc. To me, it seems like a no brainer IF we want to expand and be taking more seriously. It creates a new TV Timeslot for both Perth AND the East Coast, and there is a demand with Origin selling out both times and the recent double header. HOWEVER, the issue they run into is the size of their stadium and just how far their funding will go. They will obviously need to invest in a performance centre (COE, if you will), home training ground, etc. I assume they have all their counter arguments ready to get the ball rolling.
At this point in time, I only REALISTICALLY can see Perth or Brisbane 3 working as team 18. The other two, particularly the PNG bid, need to be treated more carefully and have everything financially be sound and prepared. But knowing the NRL (and to an extent the board of the ARLC), they're most likely going to take the $200 million bait from the Gov and approve the PNG bid which will either set the game back 20 years OR the risk will pay off and see the game grow more than it already has.
If the aim is 20 teams, It should go:
18 - Perth
19 - Brisbane 3
20 - NZ 2
If we are to expand to 22 though in the future, bring in Adelaide again and the PNG team.