18th club, whose next?

[MugaB]

Honestly, I think half the reason people complain here is that deep down they know that most of the locations for expansion are actually going to work long term, just with varying degrees of success. They're just worried that their preferred location won't be one of the next 3 chosen.

But the NRL isn't restricted by playing talent numbers like the AFL is. Our player talent pool is basically wherever rugby union is played. As the salary cap increases, it becomes a strong magnet for talent attraction, converting players who would ordinarily go to Super Rugby, and Union players overseas. On top of that PNG is barely untapped, NZ's and the Pacific Island numbers will increase as league increases its popularity and subsumes Union in the region, and the WA/VIC will start producing players in bigger numbers over time. In comparison, the AFL in 20 years time will still get 99.99% of its players from Australia.

There's no reason why a 20 team league is the end of expansion. Perth, Adelaide, a 5th Queensland team, New Zealand 2 and PNG can all happen over the next two decades with proper planning. A 22 team league is manageable.

The saturation in Australia would be the same/similar as AFL's (19 NRL vs 19-20 AFL teams) but also spread out in more cities (10 vs 8). Plus on top of that there's be 3 teams across NZ & PNG (another 16-22 million people).

If that's not a blueprint for being the most dominant sport in the whole region, I don't know what is.

Exactly... common sense with a capital C.

They could even manage 24 team comp, then after that if the comp is doing real well.... maybe then perf

 

[mongoose]

if your stance is to be anti-perth just to irk PR, then your opinions on expansion aren't worth shit.

 

[docbrown]

Exactly... common sense with a capital C.

They could even manage 24 team comp, then after that if the comp is doing real well

English Premier League has 20 teams averaging 38k and another 20 championship teams averaging 19k in a country of 57 million. Roughly 1 team per 1.4 million people if you ignore the lower (3rd and below) tiers. It's under 1 million if you include those lower tiers.

Right now across Australia (minus WA, SA & Tas) and New Zealand the NRL has 1 team per 1.6 million - better than the EPL.

In 2041 Australia will have 36 million people. New Zealand 5.5 million.
21 teams across Aus & NZ would be 1 team per 1.9 million people - again better (almost double) than EPL today which averages 38k in the top tier with 20 teams.

NZ2 would have 1.4 million to themselves.
Warriors 4 million+.
Perth 3.6 million.
Adelaide 2.1 million.
Storm 8.9 million.
PNG 20 million+
3 Brisbane sides would be dividing 3.8 million about 1.3 million each (not including Sunshine Coast)
Titans 1.2 million
Cowboys a tick under 1.4 million outside SEQ
NSW will be about 10 million people, so about 1 million each for the Sydney, Newcastle, Illawarra clubs.
Raiders about 700,000.

Seems very sustainable to me, especially with other competing codes. Which let's face it, is really only the AFL at even a comparable level (sorry A-League, Super Rugby, NBL, Big Bash - you're not in the same tier).

 

[MugaB]

if your stance is to be anti-perth just to irk PR, then your opinions on expansion aren't worth shit.

I'm not anti perf, and yes the statement was to irk PR, I would love any and all expansions, its why I frequent the expansion threads, unfortunately there's way too many experts here that would rather throw shade on every bid, rather than promote the advantages of said bids, its usually the opposite and more infighting on who's more worthy asap, instead of building all bids towards all getting a licence eventually

 

[Wb1234]

Ultimately 24 teams would be the max

once they get to 20 they should leave it alone for a decade to let all the new clubs take root especially if one is Perth and will have poor access to juniors

presuming png and mz2 are the other two they will provide an abundance of juniors for clubs like Melbourne and Perth and even the small Sydney clubs like chooks

 

[Canard]

English Premier League has 20 teams averaging 38k and another 20 championship teams averaging 19k in a country of 57 million. Roughly 1 team per 1.4 million people if you ignore the lower (3rd and below) tiers. It's under 1 million if you include those lower tiers.

Right now across Australia (minus WA, SA & Tas) and New Zealand the NRL has 1 team per 1.6 million - better than the EPL.

In 2041 Australia will have 36 million people. New Zealand 5.5 million.
21 teams across Aus & NZ would be 1 team per 1.9 million people - again better (almost double) than EPL today which averages 38k in the top tier with 20 teams.

NZ2 would have 1.4 million to themselves.
Warriors 4 million+.
Perth 3.6 million.
Adelaide 2.1 million.
Storm 8.9 million.
PNG 20 million+
3 Brisbane sides would be dividing 3.8 million about 1.3 million each (not including Sunshine Coast)
Titans 1.2 million
Cowboys a tick under 1.4 million outside SEQ
NSW will be about 10 million people, so about 1 million each for the Sydney, Newcastle, Illawarra clubs.
Raiders about 700,000.

Seems very sustainable to me, especially with other competing codes. Which let's face it, is really only the AFL at even a comparable level (sorry A-League, Super Rugby, NBL, Big Bash - you're not in the same tier).

The Cowboys catchment would be anything like 1.5M though, it would be more like 0.5M or so.(I.e it's not everywhere in QLD that's not SEQ)

Regardless I don't think anyone here would be against Brisbane having 3 sides by 2041.

As for PNG, 20M is worth much less then even a small regional town in Australia.

 

[Canard]

The NRL needs to announce what they are doing and soon, for all the chest beating on expansion, we've added only two teams in 26 years, and from basically next door to each other.

 

[docbrown]

The Cowboys catchment would be anything like 1.5M though, it would be more like 0.5M or so.(I.e it's not everywhere in QLD that's not SEQ)

Regardless I don't think anyone here would be against Brisbane having 3 sides by 2041.

As for PNG, 20M is worth much less then even a small regional town in Australia.

1.5million will be the population outside of South East Queensland, which obviously will have fans from other clubs but essentially the Cowboys are the only team based in that region. For what's its worth, Townsville & Cairns are both projected to be 300k cities by 2041.

 

[Centy Coast]

Olam was there too right? What I'd he have to say about AFL, does he like their 18th team

My dog will bite you

 

[MugaB]

My dog will bite you

Just jokes brother, besides my dog bites too

 

[Canard]

1.5million will be the population outside of South East Queensland, which obviously will have fans from other clubs but essentially the Cowboys are the only team based in that region. For what's its worth, Townsville & Cairns are both projected to be 300k cities by 2041.

Yeh, but the rest of the 900k are miles away from NQ mate.

 

[MugaB]

Regardless of how far away everyone is towards each other the fact is they travel to reach Townsville to watch the games from all around, if this was suggested as a new team now, with it not existing back in 95, people here would laud it down as not a viable option ahead the likes of Perth, Adelaide, nz2 and a 4th SEQ team, mainly due to its isolation and that Townsville population is upto ..what 300k
But it's luckily very supported and people genuinely make the effort to rally with them...

 

[Maximus]

How does Nth QLD cover Rockhampton for example with its 80k population over 700kms from Townsville?

 

[docbrown]

Yeh, but the rest of the 900k are miles away from NQ mate.

You don't have to be in Townsville to support the Cowboys. There are Cowboys fans in Brisbane. They exist all over Queensland.

The Cowboys have functioned on a small population for decades. The population growth that's happening outside of SEQ is only going to help them.

 

[Wb1234]

Nrl has added 3 teams not two

jeeze there are some dopes on here

 

[mongoose]

The NRL needs to announce what they are doing and soon, for all the chest beating on expansion, we've added only two teams in 26 years, and from basically next door to each other.

going by that there is next to no chance of the NRL ever having 24 teams. Even 20 teams by 2050 is a slim chance of happening.

 

[MugaB]

Nrl has added 3 teams not two

jeeze there are some dopes on here

No one just in the NRL era, Canard said In last 26 years? Count backwards WB

 

[MugaB]

going by that there is next to no chance of the NRL ever having 24 teams. Even 20 teams by 2050 is a slim chance of happening.

Different admin and especially chairman, the past fkwits were happy to keep status quo at the detriment to the overall game, nowadays it's about growing the game, participation and growing content, thus turning that into more income to the game

 

[Wb1234]

98

No one just in the NRL era, Canard said In last 26 years? Count backwards WB
View attachment 87597

98 season had 20 teams

 

[MugaB]

98

98 season had 20 teams

99-2002 = 2 culled (GCC, Rams), 3 mergers, add Souths = 15
2007 = GCT
2023 = THE
Basically only added 2 new teams, if you really want to be anal, really just the one = dolphins, as gold coast was there in 98, then again in 07, like souffs