No excuses from NZ then
If its green and moves around they win, if its a road then the worst they do is draw
fair assessment?
NZ has a hole in the midle order without Taylor. Watling is comming back from injury but has no runs this summer to speak of anyway. Bmac was mental in his last test when it was in the balance.
NZ victory will require Boult's swing with Southee, or one of the lesser bowlers to reenact a Stuart Broad demolition job.
Noone has the foggiest of who will be in the NZ bowling line up. Tim and Trent sure, Anderson probable (unless a gun attack is selected), but Craig, Henry, Bracewell, Wagner all up in the air at this stage. Bracewell bats best and we need runs with no Taylor, Wagner is strong running into the wind, Henry has given Smith problems in ODIs despite a dreadful test record that saw him dropped and Craig spins and can bat a little better than Wags, and Henry's (often successful) slogging.
Santner's injury, and his lost batting is a headache for selectors now. Brings both Bracewell's batting and Craig's spin into relevance against Henry's form and Wagner's incumbancy (and into wind running). Henry isn't likely to get the new ball nor preferably want to run into the Wellington wind. It is a tough decision for the selectors.
I can name the Aus team fairly certain of accuracy now subject to Bird fighting Suddle. Even then Sids is ahead on pecking order.
If i was forced to guess, I think Wagner will luck out despite incumbency as Australians are typically good pullers of the ball (Khawaja and Warner certainly are, Voges should be), despite being crucial in NZ victories over SL. This means Bracewell will bowl into the wind a bit with the spinner (if there is one) and Anderson (for his few overs). So NZ will possibly look like this:
Guptill
Latham
KW
Niccolls
McCullum
Anderson
Watling (+)
Bracewell
Craig/Henry
Southee
Boult
Many may have Henry a certainty to start, but without Santner, KW is the only spin option and Henry has not yet suceeded in a third seamer role. It will likely be windy in Wellington. If Bailey was in the Aus test team - Henry would be a near certain selection to get him and Smith out.
I'm not sure how anyone can predict the result not even knowing the team NZ will field. NZ is weak from 4 through 6 in the batting (not including Guptill), and who will be in the attack is unknown. Not to mention the pitch, despite all that green, could well be a road.