2019 Federal Election

[SDM]

Odds are based on probability...$1.20 is about 80% likely to occur.

Not sure how much money people bet on elections, so it may not be the same, but generally speaking odds are determined by money invested on each outcome after a starting point is speculated. Usually money being bet would cause Shorten to shorten rather than opinion polls.

 

[Haynzy]

There is no incentive for talented people to enter and those that are soon get worn down by the system.

So many people have a 10 second attention span and an expectation of instant gratification. Sadly, these merkins also have a voice that is much more powerful than it has ever been thanks to social media.

I think if most of us were in the same position as ScoMo and Shorten we'd also treat it as a popularity contest.

Its much more effective means of being elected than intelligent, well thought out ideas and leadership.

This almost sounds like a description of the teaching profession, minus the financial incentives that politicians get.

 

[Gary Gutful]

This almost sounds like a description of the teaching profession, minus the financial incentives that politicians get.

Yep - another thankless but necessary job.

 

[84 Baby]

And the cops, amirite @El Diablo

 

[Gary Gutful]

El D might have gone to the big forum in the sky.

 

[Eelogical]

El D might have gone to the big forum in the sky.

UAP?

 

[Gary Gutful]

 

[Bazal]

El D might have gone to the big forum in the sky.

Or Stormfront

 

[Eelogical]

Nice selfie.

 

[Chipmunk]

Not sure how much money people bet on elections, so it may not be the same, but generally speaking odds are determined by money invested on each outcome after a starting point is speculated. Usually money being bet would cause Shorten to shorten rather than opinion polls.

They are as you say based on the money invested on an outcome after the starting point. I'd suggest the amount invested would be small compared to horses and sports.

 

[Gronk]

Peter Vagg.

 

[Gronk]

Frydenberg blames Labor for house price fall

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg refuses to take any heat on the 14.5 per cent crash in home prices in Sydney, instead blaming the sentiment created by Labor's heralded negative gearing and capital gains tax policies and cyclical changes in supply.

https://www.afr.com/news/economy/frydenberg-blames-labor-for-house-price-fall-20190507-p51kuc

Yeah nothing to do with the tightening of lending policies via APRA. Ask anyone trying to get a loan these days.

 

[Twizzle]

nothing is the pollies' fault

 

[Eelogical]

nothing is the pollies' fault

The climate is.

 

[Bandwagon]

Frydenberg blames Labor for house price fall

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg refuses to take any heat on the 14.5 per cent crash in home prices in Sydney, instead blaming the sentiment created by Labor's heralded negative gearing and capital gains tax policies and cyclical changes in supply.

https://www.afr.com/news/economy/frydenberg-blames-labor-for-house-price-fall-20190507-p51kuc

Yeah nothing to do with the tightening of lending policies via APRA. Ask anyone trying to get a loan these days.

The elephant in the room on this kind of argument is that if indeed this policy is responsible for falling values ( or part thereof ) , given that Labor is yet to form government, and it is yet to become law, that would mean that the market has already factored in Labor forming government and it becoming law.

Which then means that the pain from the policy in terms of values is done with.

 

[strider]

Truth is house prices were ridiculously over inflated and needed to be pegged back .... so, job well done labor

 

[Twizzle]

They must be pretty good if they can have a policy that affects the economy before they are even elected.

 

[Bandwagon]

Truth is house prices were ridiculously over inflated and needed to be pegged back .... so, job well done labor

Ideally we need to peg back growth, whilst increasing wages. so eventually we return to some kind of sanity where housing is affordable.

Without a crash and burn that destroys consumer confidence.

 

[Gary Gutful]

nothing is the pollies' fault

Yeah right. I suppose nothing is the mod’s fault either.

 

[Gary Gutful]

They must be pretty good if they can have a policy that affects the economy before they are even elected.

Groups of people other than Government influence all sorts of policy on a daily basis.

Don’t understand how this is contestable.