There is nowhere in NZ capable of sustaining a 2nd NRL team.
Case Closed
I wouldn't claim to be fully conversant with the minutiae of NZ League, but when I had a subscription to Rugby League Week most of the time they sent the NZ edition which carried a section on the domestic game.
All my instincts tell me that NZ 2 as the 18th NRL franchise would be a gigantic mistake. Local playing talent is the single criterion somewhere like Christchurch would have over Perth at the outset. But I reckon the best Canterbury products will still prefer to live in Sydney or Queensland. How would we make them stay at home?
As others have detailed, all the commercial and political factors point to Perth over NZ 2. On the other side of the fence, one member has decried copying AFL expansion. In my view, NZ 2 would be to the Warriors what GWS is to the Swans and GCS are to the Lions.
There was a social media item a few years back featuring a number of big League families in Auckland. One of the questions was "favourite NRL club". About 1 in 5 said Warriors. Even those who did had an air of perfunctory virtue. Most common replies were Broncos, Rabbitohs, Roosters, Storm.
Cultural and local club affinities with Aussie-based Polynesian stars have a major influence. For instance, there were more Panthers jerseys evident in South Auckland during the Toa Samoa parades last year.
All this confirms a long-standing impression that right across NZ most active League fans support Aussie NRL clubs. The majority of casuals might go with the Warriors, but only if they're winning. Against this backdrop I don't know where a solid dependable fanbase for NZ 2 will come from.