The Game 2023 Crowd Watch

[SLRBRONCOS]

Pax is a load of bollox that determines how many tickets have been sold, so why are we so infatuated with this method?
The reason, I was at today's Dogs game and the pax was above 30k but only 13k turned up hmmmm

The dogs might include Accor stadium members in their pax or for this game there might have been a significant amount of unscanned redemptions (freebies for juniors etc).

We've used pax numbers as a fairly accurate method for predicting crowds for some time now, this is definitely an anomaly.

 

[Pjf04b]

“Build it and they shall come!”
But let’s not build one at Penrith despite averaging ~90% capacity @19500 in a 22k 50 year old stadium.

 

[yakstorm]

Pax is a load of bollox that determines how many tickets have been sold, so why are we so infatuated with this method?

PAX isn't related to the number of tickets sold, it's the number of tickets issued.

Rarely are PAX and announced numbers aligned, but as @SLRBRONCOS mentioned previously, it is an indicator for the type of crowd a match may draw, but like all indicators, shouldn't be taken in isolation.

For a number of clubs, like Broncos & Rabbitohs, the PAX will always be lower than the potential crowd for the game. This is because members are allocated seats separately to ticket sales (both clubs use Ticketmaster for membership & play at Ticketek venues) and they play at venues which have Stadium members.

For some clubs, memberships are included in the PAX, so the PAX number instantly starts higher than the crowd that will be, considering the average attendance for ticketed members across NRL clubs is under 50%.

You then have give-aways which can throw it out massively.

For the Bulldogs today, Illuvium, the match day partner (and reason the Bulldogs were wearing special jerseys) were giving away tickets to their own customers. You then had the Development Officers in the Canterbury-Bankstown region also giving out tickets this week (which is pretty common for last game of the round) to a number of schools.

Now generally when you're doing give-aways you pre order the tickets and do it in bulk, because both Ticketmaster & Ticketek charge a fee per ticket issued.

It's often cheaper to pre-order thousands than print hundreds, the problem is then the PAX suddenly increases dramatically even if the tickets aren't used.

I can't say exactly why Accor may have had PAX in the 30,000's today, but if I'd guess, I'd imagine you have a combo a members, sales & freebies there.

Looking at most of the talk for the game, what was shown on the Ticketek website, etc, the announced crowd fell with the range most people were predicting.

 

[Harry O]

The dogs might include Accor stadium members in their pax or for this game there might have been a significant amount of unscanned redemptions (freebies for juniors etc).

We've used pax numbers as a fairly accurate method for predicting crowds for some time now, this is definitely an anomaly.

Well you would know more then me, what do I know.
As I always love reading your posts about Crowd predictions

 

[Harry O]

PAX isn't related to the number of tickets sold, it's the number of tickets issued.

Rarely are PAX and announced numbers aligned, but as @SLRBRONCOS mentioned previously, it is an indicator for the type of crowd a match may draw, but like all indicators, shouldn't be taken in isolation.

For a number of clubs, like Broncos & Rabbitohs, the PAX will always be lower than the potential crowd for the game. This is because members are allocated seats separately to ticket sales (both clubs use Ticketmaster for membership & play at Ticketek venues) and they play at venues which have Stadium members.

For some clubs, memberships are included in the PAX, so the PAX number instantly starts higher than the crowd that will be, considering the average attendance for ticketed members across NRL clubs is under 50%.

You then have give-aways which can throw it out massively.

For the Bulldogs today, Illuvium, the match day partner (and reason the Bulldogs were wearing special jerseys) were giving away tickets to their own customers. You then had the Development Officers in the Canterbury-Bankstown region also giving out tickets this week (which is pretty common for last game of the round) to a number of schools.

Now generally when you're doing give-aways you pre order the tickets and do it in bulk, because both Ticketmaster & Ticketek charge a fee per ticket issued.

It's often cheaper to pre-order thousands than print hundreds, the problem is then the PAX suddenly increases dramatically even if the tickets aren't used.

I can't say exactly why Accor may have had PAX in the 30,000's today, but if I'd guess, I'd imagine you have a combo a members, sales & freebies there.

Looking at most of the talk for the game, what was shown on the Ticketek website, etc, the announced crowd fell with the range most people were predicting.

At half time the Dogs were parading one of their junior team who must've won the GF. If that's the case they have a bright future.

By the way nice post

 

[t-ba]

29,423.

Nuts

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

29,493 in Newcastle!

 

[t-ba]

Excluding whatever voodoo involved in Magic Round Counting, this is the 7th best attended Round in NRL history.

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

Now that Newcastle will have a week 1 final, I wonder if they will have the hills set as standing room only to maximise the capacity. They've quite clearly capped the hills below what they can actually fit to allow families to sit etc.

 

[Burns]

3rd largest crowd in Newcastle NRL history etc etc etc. About 1,300 off biggest NRL crowd there.

 

[t-ba]

3,566,595 over 196 games for an 18,196 match average.

4 million aggregate over the entire season seems inevitable.

 

[cleary89]

Should be some good crowds next week too.

Broncos v storm - is 40k+ on the cards?
Rabbitohs v roosters -
Dolphins v warriors - many wahs fans in brisbane? Will it beat this weeks dolphins crowd?

 

[t-ba]

So some conservative napkin maths based on current standings

2 x Broncos Finals @ 43k = 86k
1 x Panthers (Penrith) @ 20k (106)
1 x Panthers (SA) @ 30k (136)
1 x Warriors @ 24k (160)
1 x Storm @ 20k (180)
1 x Knights @ 28k (208)
1 x Sharks @ 10k (218)
1 x Grand Final @ 80k (298)

If next week can pull like 140k then that's 4 million.

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

Should be some good crowds next week too.

Broncos v storm - is 40k+ on the cards?
Rabbitohs v roosters -
Dolphins v warriors - many wahs fans in brisbane? Will it beat this weeks dolphins crowd?

Hmm. I thought so, 100%. But the Broncos have about 3k seats unsold that they are flogging as one game memberships.

They would have sold on ticketek by now, and I don't think many people know that they can access seats via these memberships and are just being turned away when they see that it's pretty much sold out on ticketek.

Re the Dolphins. There will be quite a few Warriors fans there but the Dolphins fans will get out for their last game for sure. It's in front of the cowboys game a week out. I reckon 35-38k.

 

[t-ba]

Furthermore to the Roosters stuff on the North shore you typically see three teams - Swans, Souths and Roosters. A splash of Manly.

Frankly if they catch this area they're golden. Eastern Suburbs + North Shore is basically money printing territory.

Still at a complete loss as to what the morons in charge of Norths thought that Gosford was a better option than the North Shore from a sustainability perspective.

 

[Pneuma]

182000 this round. Average around 22750. Outstanding

 

[Yosemite Sam]

Now that Newcastle will have a week 1 final, I wonder if they will have the hills set as standing room only to maximise the capacity. They've quite clearly capped the hills below what they can actually fit to allow families to sit etc.

Surely they will sell the full 32K tickets to a final. The hills have ben nowhere near full the last 2 weeks. Hill should always be standing room only.

Hopefully Canberra beat Cronulla next week so Newcastle & Canberra can host week 1 finals with Penrith and Brisbane.

 

[cleary89]

1 x Warriors @ 24k (160)

Would Warriors move to Eden park or keep at Mt smart?

 

[Brian potter]

Would Warriors move to Eden park or keep at Mt smart?

Keep it at mt smart but get the ground to 32k capacity like for the all blacks game.

 

[t-ba]

Would Warriors move to Eden park or keep at Mt smart?

Conservative estimate.