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2024 R20 Sun - Penrith 28-26* Dolphins @ BlueBet

Round 20: Penrith v Dolphins

  • Penrith Panthers

    Votes: 11 84.6%
  • Dolphins

    Votes: 2 15.4%
  • Draw after Golden Point

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    13
  • Poll closed .

Valheru

Coach
Messages
19,166
Same points as this time last year. I agree we haven't looked that flash at times, but still doing what's needed. The flex against the Sharks should tell you what's coming when we need it.
On the ladder stuff, that is true however I would point out a couple of things

* Penrith are indeed on the same points as last year however they have scored 40 less and conceded 40 more points to this stage, in other words it hasn't come as easy which is my overarching point.
* 28 Points was good enough for first on the ladder after round 19 last year although Brisbane had more wins. This year there is a team two wins clear and two other teams who have the same amount of wins and a better F/A. What this means is there will be more of a battle to finish top 2.

Perhaps they will "click" and destroy the competition come finals but nothing I have seen this year tells me that is likely.
 

PANTHERMIKE

Juniors
Messages
1,557
On the ladder stuff, that is true however I would point out a couple of things

* Penrith are indeed on the same points as last year however they have scored 40 less and conceded 40 more points to this stage, in other words it hasn't come as easy which is my overarching point.
* 28 Points was good enough for first on the ladder after round 19 last year although Brisbane had more wins. This year there is a team two wins clear and two other teams who have the same amount of wins and a better F/A. What this means is there will be more of a battle to finish top 2.

Perhaps they will "click" and destroy the competition come finals but nothing I have seen this year tells me that is likely.

Your points are valid, but my only response to that would be that Nathan Cleary played 22 games in 2023, he has only played 3 80 minute games this season. He scored 216 points in 2023, and 28 in 2024 so far. 20 Try assists in 2023, 5 in 2024

He is the difference, and will always be the difference.
 

MrBlack

Juniors
Messages
1,427
On the ladder stuff, that is true however I would point out a couple of things

* Penrith are indeed on the same points as last year however they have scored 40 less and conceded 40 more points to this stage, in other words it hasn't come as easy which is my overarching point.
* 28 Points was good enough for first on the ladder after round 19 last year although Brisbane had more wins. This year there is a team two wins clear and two other teams who have the same amount of wins and a better F/A. What this means is there will be more of a battle to finish top 2.

Perhaps they will "click" and destroy the competition come finals but nothing I have seen this year tells me that is likely.

Of the top 4 teams we have been the most affected by Origin, add to that the Cleary injury and also the loss of Creighton this year.

This year was always going to be about timing our run home.
 

Apey

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
28,261
I'm irrelevant to this convo but am bored at work. A full strength and flying Penrith feels almost unstoppable, IMO. How could they not do it for Luai and Fish? Methinks that they will probably be even more passionate about 24 than 23. Their centres are an issue, though. WTF has happened to Tago? Ever since he told everyone to cure their injuries with bone broth and green tea, and to get cash out at every opportunity, he's gone to shit.

I don't think Melbourne or the Roosters are as dangerous as we were last year. But let's see how they move through the last rounds.

To contradict myself I do think that the only team that could trouble them would be the Roosters but they'd need to be flawless. They've certainly got the talent. Yes, I know that Melbourne won round 1 against them, but as if that compares to September/October. We learned that last year.

My preference is that Penrith take Melbourne or the Roosters souls* next.

*neither of those clubs actually have a soul tho lol
Your club needs to accept some responsibility for posters like @Chins get the wins
 

Fangs

Coach
Messages
13,743
I'll use a Gus Gould definition for 2024: It's a soft competition.

The Broncos of 2023 absolutely stomp teams like the Roosters, Storm or Sharks. And I'd have to admit in 2024 they probably take out Penrith as well.

But the Broncos aren't making the finals. The Roosters have improved but haven't beaten Penrith since Trump was in power (I might be on to something here). The Storm look the same as last year. Likewise the Sharks, they've slightly turned the corner winning matches against top 8 sides but got absolutely obliterated when they took on the premiers.

Penrith are still the best defensive team in the competition. And when it comes to the best performances of the year no one has come close to round 12 against the Sharks. That is really all we have to go with.

So I'm still pretty confident they will take out 2024. Another team needs to show something in the next 8 weeks to convince me otherwise.
 

Valheru

Coach
Messages
19,166
Your points are valid, but my only response to that would be that Nathan Cleary played 22 games in 2023, he has only played 3 80 minute games this season. He scored 216 points in 2023, and 28 in 2024 so far. 20 Try assists in 2023, 5 in 2024

He is the difference, and will always be the difference.
And what were those 3 games he played 80 minutes in?

8-0 loss to Storm
26-18 win v Parra
26-20 win v Cowboys

He also played 71 minutes in a 34-14 win against Broncos

Those results are in line with the rest of the panthers 2024 season. I understand you guys thinking he will be the silver bullet, but again, I don't see that happening. He will undoubtedly improve the team but not to the point they just need to turn up in the finals to win.

Also, how fit is he really going to be? He has had the same injury twice now.
 

Chins get the wins

First Grade
Messages
8,247
And what were those 3 games he played 80 minutes in?

8-0 loss to Storm
26-18 win v Parra
26-20 win v Cowboys

He also played 71 minutes in a 34-14 win against Broncos

Those results are in line with the rest of the panthers 2024 season. I understand you guys thinking he will be the silver bullet, but again, I don't see that happening. He will undoubtedly improve the team but not to the point they just need to turn up in the finals to win.

Also, how fit is he really going to be? He has had the same injury twice now.
Even without him we'd win the comp
 

Iamback

Referee
Messages
20,279
And what were those 3 games he played 80 minutes in?

8-0 loss to Storm
26-18 win v Parra
26-20 win v Cowboys

He also played 71 minutes in a 34-14 win against Broncos

Those results are in line with the rest of the panthers 2024 season. I understand you guys thinking he will be the silver bullet, but again, I don't see that happening. He will undoubtedly improve the team but not to the point they just need to turn up in the finals to win.

Also, how fit is he really going to be? He has had the same injury twice now.

Yeah but other circumstances behind those results

Round 1 for example Kenny was suspended. Luai and others with no pre season.

You don't fit he will be back fit within 8 weeks to the finals?
 

Fangs

Coach
Messages
13,743
Even without him we'd win the comp

No chance it happens in 2021 or 2023. Maybe in 2022.

The fact that its possible in 2024 speaks volumes about the quality of other teams. Its a soft comp. Deadset I have the Dogs and Manly as possible grand finalists at this point.
 

Apey

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
28,261
No chance it happens in 2021 or 2023. Maybe in 2022.

The fact that its possible in 2024 speaks volumes about the quality of other teams. Its a soft comp. Deadset I have the Dogs and Manly as possible grand finalists at this point.
Doggies have turned the corner this year but I think they have too much plod still to go far in the finals. Great defence though.
 

Fangs

Coach
Messages
13,743
Doggies have turned the corner this year but I think they have too much plod still to go far in the finals. Great defence though.

Feels like one of those years to me.

Dogs D is neck and neck with Penrith's. They've got Crichton, Kikau, Mahoney and many of the plodders have played finals football in recent years (Mann, Salmon, Hutchinson, Taffe etc). And it's the plodders along with the coach who have turned their club around I believe. Give them a close contest and they'll be in the hunt.

Manly just because I think they've got an underrated squad. Specifically the forward pack, it's the best middle rotation they've had for a while and it has depth as well. On its day they test any pack. Nathan Brown is no Spencer Leniu but he has had some stand out performances from the bench this year.

So just like Nostradamus and Baba Vanga before me I'll predict one of the fancied sides shit their pants in the finals and let a real underdog into a prelim minimum.
 

soc123_au

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
19,835
Doggies have turned the corner this year but I think they have too much plod still to go far in the finals. Great defence though.
Dogs remind me a bit of 2014 Panthers. Not sure they will get a miracle and make a prelim though. Still been a bloody good year from them all things considered.
 

Panther Mike

Juniors
Messages
232
We shouldn’t really need to win the comp 4 times in a row to prove our greatness but if the alternative is Storm or Roosters winning it then I guess we need to win it again!

As for this game, I’m not too happy with the team named. It might be the same plodders who lost to the Cowboys with Cleary instead of Yeo providing much needed leadership.

I sat in the rain and watched us lose to the Cowboys. So I don’t know if we’ll be able to beat the Dolphins with plodders like Schneider getting a start.
 

soc123_au

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
19,835
I would have liked to see Cole get a run with Cleary. Not sure if injured or just out though.
 

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