Armchair Coach/Selector time

[I'm a loser baby...]

Agree ... i would ultimately plan on Gutho to fullback, but wouldnt rush him there

I'd prefer Gutho at fullback but I also want to see how we go with two powerful wingers bringing it back. I think it could really help the forwards and flow on to the whole team. But it looks like we won't see that.

 

[hineyrulz]

Whingers:
Where's gutho, we need him, Arthur is a shit coach.
Picks gutho- Arthur is desperate picking him early, he is a shit coach

Who was whinging about bringing Guth back early??? I’m pretty sure everyone on here was happy not to rush him back.

 

[Bazal]

Ok, here's one for the death riders. Let's take this further, look longer term....

We constantly hear shit from certain posters about how x player is shit, y player is better, we need to address z immediately, the coach is useless, but never any actual solutions. So here's a chance....

There is, now, a strong rumour that we'll bring Junior Paulo back. Let's assume it's true, for the purposes of the exercise. We've signed Paulo. What next?

What issues still need to be addressed? And how are you addressing them if you hypothetically take over the club tomorrow?

Here are our off contract players...

Dane Aukafolau, Kirisome Auva'a, Nathan Davis, David Gower, Jarryd Hayne, George Jennings, Cameron King, Suaia Matagi, Jack Morris, Marata Niukore, Kaysa Pritchard, Beau Scott, Ray Stone, Peni Terepo, Siosaia Vave, Tony Williams.

Who do you keep? And who do you let go? Who do you sign? The list of off contract players for the NRL is easy to find.

We don't know the exact finances, so rough is fine.

For me...

We still need a hooker, desperately. I'd re-sign Cameron King to a minimum wage deal, let Pritchard go, and put a reasonable deal in front of Api Koroisau and James Segeyaro, with Koroisau first choice.

Let go of Davis, Gower, Matagi, Scott, Terepo, Morris. Re-sign Williams (1 year, cheap deal, take or leave it), Vave (1 year, cheap deal, take or leave it) Niukore, Stone, Aukafolau, Auva'a.

Hayne is tricky. I reckon I'd offer him another year at a reduced rate, take it or leave it. Jennings isn't a must keep, so see what happens. Aukafolau can replace him if needed.

Remember we've hypothetically signed Paulo, I'd also look at Leeson Ah Mau. He's not a huge guy but he's been carving up and would be sitting in the mid-range for props in terms of price. Having let go of a handful of backups, I'd offer a slightly-better-than-back-up deal to a guy from NQ called Emry Pere. 193cm, 106kg at 19 years of age. He will be a monster in the Kikau mould and I'd love him at Parra.

With Paulo, Ah Mau, and Pere we have our attacking forwards. Koroisau/Segs solves hooker. Ideally, gives us a top 17 of something like;

1-Gutherson
2-French
3-Jennings
4-Auva'a
5-
6-Norman
7-Moses
8-Paulo
9-Koroisau/Segeyaro
10-Alvaro/Mannah
11-Ma'u
12-Moeroa
13-Brown

14-Edwards
15-Ah Mau
16-Mannah/Alvaro
17-Evans

Obviously, not everyone you offer a deal to will sign, so there would have to be secondary options. For Ah Mau's spot I'd also have a look Tevita Pangai Jnr. He'd be a project player and so less desirable than an Ah Mau, but BA has a decent record with project players. Shannon Boyd is another, although he'd be my least desired choice of the three.

We're being a bit less complex here and assuming that there is a better than average chance the players we name agree to the deals (as long as they fit under the salary cap)

Wing is dependant on re-signing Hayne. If you do that, then there's a shuffle in the backs or he plays wing.

Guys like Vave, T-Rex, provide good depth, and you can fill the remaining top 30 spots (once you include the players already on contract) with relevant back up signings and internal promotions....

 

[Happy MEel]

Ok, here's one for the death riders. Let's take this further, look longer term....

We constantly hear shit from certain posters about how x player is shit, y player is better, we need to address z immediately, the coach is useless, but never any actual solutions. So here's a chance....

There is, now, a strong rumour that we'll bring Junior Paulo back. Let's assume it's true, for the purposes of the exercise. We've signed Paulo. What next?

What issues still need to be addressed? And how are you addressing them if you hypothetically take over the club tomorrow?

Here are our off contract players...

Dane Aukafolau, Kirisome Auva'a, Nathan Davis, David Gower, Jarryd Hayne, George Jennings, Cameron King, Suaia Matagi, Jack Morris, Marata Niukore, Kaysa Pritchard, Beau Scott, Ray Stone, Peni Terepo, Siosaia Vave, Tony Williams.

Who do you keep? And who do you let go? Who do you sign? The list of off contract players for the NRL is easy to find.

We don't know the exact finances, so rough is fine.

For me...

We still need a hooker, desperately. I'd re-sign Cameron King to a minimum wage deal, let Pritchard go, and put a reasonable deal in front of Api Koroisau and James Segeyaro, with Koroisau first choice.

Let go of Davis, Gower, Matagi, Scott, Terepo, Morris. Re-sign Williams (1 year, cheap deal, take or leave it), Vave (1 year, cheap deal, take or leave it) Niukore, Stone, Aukafolau, Auva'a.

Hayne is tricky. I reckon I'd offer him another year at a reduced rate, take it or leave it. Jennings isn't a must keep, so see what happens. Aukafolau can replace him if needed.

Remember we've hypothetically signed Paulo, I'd also look at Leeson Ah Mau. He's not a huge guy but he's been carving up and would be sitting in the mid-range for props in terms of price. Having let go of a handful of backups, I'd offer a slightly-better-than-back-up deal to a guy from NQ called Emry Pere. 193cm, 106kg at 19 years of age. He will be a monster in the Kikau mould and I'd love him at Parra.

With Paulo, Ah Mau, and Pere we have our attacking forwards. Koroisau/Segs solves hooker. Ideally, gives us a top 17 of something like;

1-Gutherson
2-French
3-Jennings
4-Auva'a
5-
6-Norman
7-Moses
8-Paulo
9-Koroisau/Segeyaro
10-Alvaro/Mannah
11-Ma'u
12-Moeroa
13-Brown

14-Edwards
15-Ah Mau
16-Mannah/Alvaro
17-Evans

Obviously, not everyone you offer a deal to will sign, so there would have to be secondary options. For Ah Mau's spot I'd also have a look Tevita Pangai Jnr. He'd be a project player and so less desirable than an Ah Mau, but BA has a decent record with project players. Shannon Boyd is another, although he'd be my least desired choice of the three.

We're being a bit less complex here and assuming that there is a better than average chance the players we name agree to the deals (as long as they fit under the salary cap)

Wing is dependant on re-signing Hayne. If you do that, then there's a shuffle in the backs or he plays wing.

Guys like Vave, T-Rex, provide good depth, and you can fill the remaining top 30 spots (once you include the players already on contract) with relevant back up signings and internal promotions....

I like the look of that side plus Hayne

 

[Noise]

Agree with most of that:

Hooker - Segy, Api or Farrah
resign Hayne
Middles - Junior Paulo + Pangai Jr

If we need to free up some cash I'd be happy to release Kysa, Hoffman, Mannah and/or Mau

 

[strider]

Every player listed there has tomwork their ass off to prove themselves in the coming weeks/months .... none are worth resigning atm ... anyone who is willing tomsign a minimum deal could be accepted as depth

 

[Happy MEel]

Every player listed there has tomwork their ass off to prove themselves in the coming weeks/months .... none are worth resigning atm ... anyone who is willing tomsign a minimum deal could be accepted as depth

Except if they work their ring off and start playing quality footy we may be paying an absolute premium. The coaching staff should already know what each of these players can bring to the team. It’s not as if they’re unknown rookies.

 

[I'm a loser baby...]

Every player listed there has tomwork their ass off to prove themselves in the coming weeks/months .... none are worth resigning atm ... anyone who is willing tomsign a minimum deal could be accepted as depth

Tom sounds like an undervalued member of the team.

 

[Chipmunk]

Dane Aukafolau, Kirisome Auva'a, Nathan Davis, David Gower, Jarryd Hayne, George Jennings, Cameron King, Suaia Matagi, Jack Morris, Marata Niukore, Kaysa Pritchard, Beau Scott, Ray Stone, Peni Terepo, Siosaia Vave, Tony Williams.

Who do you keep? And who do you let go? Who do you sign? The list of off contract players for the NRL is easy to find.

1-Gutherson
2-French
3-Jennings
4-Auva'a
5-
6-Norman
7-Moses
8-Paulo
9-Koroisau/Segeyaro
10-Alvaro/Mannah
11-Ma'u
12-Moeroa
13-Brown

14-Edwards
15-Ah Mau
16-Mannah/Alvaro
17-Evans

Firstly I think you need to assess committed stocks.

Looking at Pou Bear's Squad Succession thread, we have 16 players signed for next season, which means that we have 13 slots to fill (keeping one up our sleeve for mid season signings).

My guess is that Salmon and Smith would be on minimum wage for next season. The other 14 are on starting player money. Two of those are Hoffman and Takairangi who aren't in your 17. Do you keep them around as backups or try and move them on? Do you try and move any of the 16 signed up for next year on?

Of your off contract list, I think you've forgotten about Mahoney and the winger GL, or are they signed for next season?

​

 

[lingard]

Ok, here's one for the death riders. Let's take this further, look longer term....

We constantly hear shit from certain posters about how x player is shit, y player is better, we need to address z immediately, the coach is useless, but never any actual solutions. So here's a chance....

There is, now, a strong rumour that we'll bring Junior Paulo back. Let's assume it's true, for the purposes of the exercise. We've signed Paulo. What next?

What issues still need to be addressed? And how are you addressing them if you hypothetically take over the club tomorrow?

Here are our off contract players...

Dane Aukafolau, Kirisome Auva'a, Nathan Davis, David Gower, Jarryd Hayne, George Jennings, Cameron King, Suaia Matagi, Jack Morris, Marata Niukore, Kaysa Pritchard, Beau Scott, Ray Stone, Peni Terepo, Siosaia Vave, Tony Williams.

Who do you keep? And who do you let go? Who do you sign? The list of off contract players for the NRL is easy to find.

We don't know the exact finances, so rough is fine.

For me...

We still need a hooker, desperately. I'd re-sign Cameron King to a minimum wage deal, let Pritchard go, and put a reasonable deal in front of Api Koroisau and James Segeyaro, with Koroisau first choice.

Let go of Davis, Gower, Matagi, Scott, Terepo, Morris. Re-sign Williams (1 year, cheap deal, take or leave it), Vave (1 year, cheap deal, take or leave it) Niukore, Stone, Aukafolau, Auva'a.

Hayne is tricky. I reckon I'd offer him another year at a reduced rate, take it or leave it. Jennings isn't a must keep, so see what happens. Aukafolau can replace him if needed.

Remember we've hypothetically signed Paulo, I'd also look at Leeson Ah Mau. He's not a huge guy but he's been carving up and would be sitting in the mid-range for props in terms of price. Having let go of a handful of backups, I'd offer a slightly-better-than-back-up deal to a guy from NQ called Emry Pere. 193cm, 106kg at 19 years of age. He will be a monster in the Kikau mould and I'd love him at Parra.

With Paulo, Ah Mau, and Pere we have our attacking forwards. Koroisau/Segs solves hooker. Ideally, gives us a top 17 of something like;

1-Gutherson
2-French
3-Jennings
4-Auva'a
5-
6-Norman
7-Moses
8-Paulo
9-Koroisau/Segeyaro
10-Alvaro/Mannah
11-Ma'u
12-Moeroa
13-Brown

14-Edwards
15-Ah Mau
16-Mannah/Alvaro
17-Evans

Obviously, not everyone you offer a deal to will sign, so there would have to be secondary options. For Ah Mau's spot I'd also have a look Tevita Pangai Jnr. He'd be a project player and so less desirable than an Ah Mau, but BA has a decent record with project players. Shannon Boyd is another, although he'd be my least desired choice of the three.

We're being a bit less complex here and assuming that there is a better than average chance the players we name agree to the deals (as long as they fit under the salary cap)

Wing is dependant on re-signing Hayne. If you do that, then there's a shuffle in the backs or he plays wing.

Guys like Vave, T-Rex, provide good depth, and you can fill the remaining top 30 spots (once you include the players already on contract) with relevant back up signings and internal promotions....

Does this now make you a death-rider, then?

 

[lingard]

Whingers:
Where's gutho, we need him, Arthur is a shit coach.
Picks gutho- Arthur is desperate picking him early, he is a shit coach

This post doesn't make sense.
Where's Gutho? He was injured; everyone knew that.
A couple of people then hope he isn't being rushed back. So what? How does that equate to BA being a shit coach?
I can imagine there would be intense pressure on the coaching staff to bring back their (arguably) best player as quickly as possible. If BA did it too soon, it just means he made a mistake. So what? Doesn't mean he's a shit coach.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

Firstly I think you need to assess committed stocks.

Looking at Pou Bear's Squad Succession thread, we have 16 players signed for next season, which means that we have 13 slots to fill (keeping one up our sleeve for mid season signings).

My guess is that Salmon and Smith would be on minimum wage for next season. The other 14 are on starting player money. Two of those are Hoffman and Takairangi who aren't in your 17. Do you keep them around as backups or try and move them on? Do you try and move any of the 16 signed up for next year on?

Of your off contract list, I think you've forgotten about Mahoney and the winger GL, or are they signed for next season?

​

I have them off contract in the succession thread because they might be. There was no retention announcement for the development players so we don’t know how long they’re signed for. The exception is external recruit Jaeman Salmon, who was announced as a three year signing. But Aukafolau, Leleisiuao, Mahoney and Stone just appeared in the squad profiles. There was nothing about how long they were signed for. I’d be surprised if it was only one year though.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

This post doesn't make sense.
Where's Gutho? He was injured; everyone knew that.
A couple of people then hope he isn't being rushed back. So what? How does that equate to BA being a shit coach?
I can imagine there would be intense pressure on the coaching staff to bring back their (arguably) best player as quickly as possible. If BA did it too soon, it just means he made a mistake. So what? Doesn't mean he's a shit coach.

How would you know if it was too soon? There will always be a risk of reinjury, just as there is always a chance of injury for players who’ve never had that particular injury. So even if he busts his knee on his first touch of the ball it doesn’t mean he came back too soon. He could wait until next year and f**k his knee in the first game back. That’s what happened to him last time he injured it, in round one 2015.

This is why it’s stupid to talk about coaching mistakes. It sounds like you have a total lack of understanding of randomness and risk.

 

[Bazal]

Firstly I think you need to assess committed stocks.

Looking at Pou Bear's Squad Succession thread, we have 16 players signed for next season, which means that we have 13 slots to fill (keeping one up our sleeve for mid season signings).

My guess is that Salmon and Smith would be on minimum wage for next season. The other 14 are on starting player money. Two of those are Hoffman and Takairangi who aren't in your 17. Do you keep them around as backups or try and move them on? Do you try and move any of the 16 signed up for next year on?

Of your off contract list, I think you've forgotten about Mahoney and the winger GL, or are they signed for next season?

​

I'm just going by the off contract list floating around the internet. Zero Tackle has a decent list all on the one page. It might not be accurate, I'm not sure...but for the purpose of the hypothetical those guys aren't crucial anyway.

If you can shift a player like Taka, I'd probably try, honestly. I don't see him getting a lot of game time in my own set-up (which is the point of the hypothetical), but I also don't think you can just say "I'd move player X on" when they are under contract. You'd need to find someone willing to take all or most of the contract for it to be worthwhile, and for the purposes of a simple internet exercise I thought that was a bit much. I do think I'd keep Hoffman, can play 1-6 in a pinch and that's handy to have in a bloke on the edge of the top 17

By all means, if you want to do your own nominate players to move on and how much of their contract you'd be willing to cop in the books, go for it.

 

[Chipmunk]

Of the off contract players mentioned above I would do the following

If Dane Aukafolau, Nathan Davis, Marata Niukore and Ray Stone are happy to take player 27-30 money (I think it's $75k isn't it?) then they're more than welcome to hang around

If Hooker Mahoney and Winger GL and George Jennings, are happy to take minimum wage ($100k) then I think they should be kept as player 24 and 26

If the following players - David Gower Cameron King, Suaia Matagi, Kaysa Pritchard, Peni Terepo, Siosaia Vave, Tony Williams, are happy to take minimum wage ($100k) then I think they should be kept. Initially I'd only take 2 of Gower, Matagi, Terepo, Vave or Williams and 1 of King or Pritchard, but there could be opportunities depending on who else signs. This would occupy player 21-23 in the squad. If any of these guys are happy to take player 27-30 money then stay around and punt one of the other 4 on that money

I'd keep Kirisome Auva'a for the right price around $150k to be player 20 in the squad

I'd say to Beau Scott, we'd love for you to stick around and there is an opportunity for you to join the coaching staff in 2019, but the only way you're playing for Parra is for $100k. I think he will join the coaching staff or find somewhere else

I'd resign The Plane for the same coin he is one now to be player 19

Of the 16 players currently signed for next season I'd inform Takairangi, French, Hoffman and Mannah that if you can get someone to take your contract at full value then you're free to leave. With French, I'd probably keep him if we let The Plane go. In opinion we have room for 2 of Gutherson, French and The Plane, not all 3. I think we need more from our wingers if The Plane is one of the Centres and we're never going to get what we need in a winger from French.

I'd resign Gutherson, Moses, Moeroa, Alvaro on a longer deal now that go beyond next season
The following players Salmon, Smith, M.Jennings, Edwards, Ma'u, Brown, Evans are all contracted and I'd keep around. Jennings, Edwards and Ma'u might get a gig beyond next season

That's 12 players to 16 players on the books, and we've got positions 19 to 30 sorted from internal re-signings, which means we have between 3 and 7 spots on the roster.

Hooker - Go for one of Koroisau or Segeyaro
Middle - Go for two of Paulo/Boyd/Lodge/Pangai Jnr/Ah Mau/Glasby. I'd even try and get someone out of their contract - I'm just not sure who.
WIng - Go for one of Mansour or Oates on the left wing. I'd even consider letting The Plane go and going for Uate and Nightingale on right wing

If we can offload more players then that's more options too.

FB - Gutho
LW - Mansour/Oates
LC - Hayne/RVarR
RC - Jenko
RW - RVarR/Uate/Nightingale
FE - Norman
HB - Moses
L - Brown
L2R - Ma'u
R2R - Moeroa
FR - Alvaro
H - Segeyaro/Koroisau
FR - Paulo/Boyd/Lodge/Pangai Jnr/Au Mau/Glasby or Other Contracted

INT - Edwards and 3 of Evans/Paulo/Boyd/Lodge/Pangai Jnr/Ah Mau/Glasby or Other Contracted. I'd also consider an option of having Mahoney on the interchange with Edwards and 2 of Evans/Paulo/Boyd/Lodge/Pangai Jnr/Ah Mau/Glasby or Other Contracted.

I think we should spend more on a Top 21 instead of Top 25 of even NRL experience, so if more have to go then more have to go.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

The thing is you're talking about signing all these players from other clubs. It's a lot of players, and their own clubs will be offering at least what they're worth. If they're being offered what they're worth to stay, how much would we need to offer to get them to leave? The answer is more-than-they're-worth. You just can't afford to pay overs for too many players in your squad. Make the call. Prop, wing and hooker are the three players we need to bring in from outside. But how many of our current squad are on overs? Jennings, Norman, Moses and Ma'u are all strong possibilities. Plus we have three blokes whose best position is fullback - a fairly expensive position.

 

[Chipmunk]

The thing is you're talking about signing all these players from other clubs. It's a lot of players, and their own clubs will be offering at least what they're worth. If they're being offered what they're worth to stay, how much would we need to offer to get them to leave? The answer is more-than-they're-worth. You just can't afford to pay overs for too many players in your squad. Make the call. Prop, wing and hooker are the three players we need to bring in from outside. But how many of our current squad are on overs? Jennings, Norman, Moses and Ma'u are all strong possibilities. Plus we have three blokes whose best position is fullback - a fairly expensive position.

Agreed...but if we go from 25 players of reasonable NRL experience to 20 and discard those no longer required, then we have more cash to spend on players that matter than we do now.

No club who has more than 21-22 players of NRL experience has won an NRL Premiership in a long long time, if ever. None of the Premiership favourites or the teams leading the comp in 2018 really have more than 20-21 players of NRL experience.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I don't think the experience matters as much as the level of quality. There's not necessarily much between a bloke with five games experience and a total rookie.

How many of our 29 players would you say is realistically on more than the (top 26) minimum salary? I only count 21. Less than a dozen would be on more than the mean (about $300k), IMO. But maybe that's too many anyway?

 

[Chipmunk]

I don't think the experience matters as much as the level of quality. There's not necessarily much between a bloke with five games experience and a total rookie.

How many of our 29 players would you say is realistically on more than the (top 26) minimum salary? I only count 21. Less than a dozen would be on more than the mean (about $300k), IMO. But maybe that's too many anyway?

I actually think that our issues stem from the very bottom of the Top 30. I look at our Top 30 squad and lets say we have 29 signed. I'd be surprised if Davis and GJennnings aren't on min wage of $100k...whereas they're filling spots of players that should be on $75k. I reckon that the only blokes on $75k in our Top 30 are Niukora and probably Salmon.

Now to the rest of the backups. We signed Hoffman when we needed outside backs. I'd suggest he's contract is more than likely to start with a 3, than a 2. He's not really a Top 21 player

We lured Vave away from Manly when he was offered a deal to stay. I'd suggest his deal has at worst a 2 in front of it, if not a 3. He's not at this stage considered Top 23

I would've thought that someone like Smith was on minimum wage. But why would a bloke on minimum wage in the NRL commit to a 2 year deal. I'd suggest he's on more than minimum now.

The same goes for Matagi. Why sign a two year deal for Minimum Wage?

The only players I can see on min wage or less at the club in the Top 30 are Salmon, RVarR (could be higher), GJennings, King, Niokora, Davis and potentially Williams (I'd say he's getting more). I think Salmon is Top 30...but that could be wrong. I think the only players on actual 27-30 money would be Salmon and Niokora.

At the end of the day, min wage for players 27-30 might be $75k, but there is nothing in the NRL rules that says that you can't pay everyone in your Top 30 at least $300k each.

 

[Poupou Escobar]

I guess my point is there's no good reason to give a player $100k if he's not worth it. You need 26 such players and you might have to make do with them all being worth $150k or even $200k.

That said, I reckon the following would all be on no more than $100k.

Aukafolau (dev contract)
Davis
Gennings
Gower
Leleisiuao (dev contract)
Mahoney (dev contract)
Niukore (dev contract)
Salmon (probable dev contract)
Smith
Stone (dev contract)

In the context of the salary cap there's no difference between $75k and 100k, though the difference in quality between the two price points could be significant.

In addition, these guys would be earning less than the $300k mean (IMO):

Alvaro
Auva'a
French
Hoffman
King
Matagi
Pritchard
Terepo
Vave
Williams

That leaves these merkins on more than mean, in some cases more than double:

Brown
Edwards
Evans
Gutherson
Hayne
Mannah
Ma'u
Mennings
Moeroa
Moses
Norman
Scott
Takairangi