Attack v Defense stats = obvious problem

[Dragonslayer]

After our dismal showings over the last 3 weeks (and overall in 2019), there had to be some evidence that identified what is going wrong. From the stats below, it pretty damn obvious we have a problem in our attack and defence ie: trys scored against trys conceeded.

So, I have broken this down into:
First 30 mins (0-30)
Middle 30 mins (30-60)
Final 20 mins (60-80)

First 30:
Trys scored = 13
Trys conceeded = 6

Mid 30:
Trys scored = 8
Trys conceeded = 16

Final 20:
Trys scored = 7
Trys conceeded = 11

As you can see we blast out of the blocks for the first 30 mins, this is when we have starting pack. Mcgregor usually makes the first change (exception being the debarkle in rd9) between the 25th-30th min mark (barring injury). This when we bring on the likes of Lats and co. As you can see up to half time and by the time they are usually replaced (around the 60th min) it all turns to a pile of crap. The momentum gained in the first 30 is lost and momentum and confidence has swung to the opposition. The final 20 is spent trying to arrest back the monentum which at this late stage is too much a mountain to climb.

Its already been discussed ad-nauseum about our bench usage and who sits on it, but these stats really highlight our concerns.

Lats (i'm not blaminv him because he doesnt pick himself) and carrying a back on the bench is ludicris and this evidence proves why.

We need 4 forwards on the bench, who have enthusiasm and drive, 2 props, 1 edge and a utility who can play hooker or edge forward.
With the decision on JDB coming this week which will go a long way in determining our team moving forward.

With JDB:
Bench- Lawrie, K. Sims (Timm until he is fit), Leilua, Robson (if he leaves I'd promote Lovodua)

Without JDB:
Bench- K.Sims (Kerr until he returns), Timm, Leilua, Robson (or Lovodua as above).

With Team List Tuesday upon us surely McGregor has analysed our attack and defensive woes, but again we are talking McGregor.

 

[This Year?]

You know he does read the forums and he will take credit when he does this.

Oh who am I kidding he's probably browsing for jetskis.

 

[j0nesy]

Our defence around the middle of the ruck, particularly as the game wears on, is very poor. You cannot lose a player of the quality of JDB, who is arguably the best tackler in the comp, and expect it not to have an impact. Excuses aside, Graham (when tired) and Lats are both slow to retreat and close any gaps around the middle. Graham makes up for it in other areas but Lats does not. If we get JDB back we’ll be fine. If not and we can’t replace him we will struggle all season. Regardless, we will improve if we get rid of Lats and use our bench better. One option might be to play T Simms at lock.

 

[hewi]

Great post and shows up the problems of bench use to perfection. Every one here knows it and yes the Warriors game was a debacle off the bench. I sound like a broken record , it’s all summed up above. A back on the bench, a waste, Latimore, a waste, whenif ever will it change. The coach is a moron.

 

[Dragonsamy]

Hopefully he will go with 4 forward and actually use them properly (finally).
But I will not hold my breath

 

[hewi]

Hopefully he will go with 4 forward and actually use them properly (finally).
But I will not hold my breath

I feel you will die waiting. I’ve really got the sh##ts now. It’s like watching last years train wreck all over again just earlier in the year that’s all.

 

[Walpole]

Very interesting. It seems we've converted our habit of starting the season well and then fading into doing the same thing in individual games.

We need energy off the bench which someone like Latimore just doesn't provide. I doubt he'd be playing first grade anywhere else. He'd make an excellent reserve grade captain but that's about it.

While we're on stats, Jackson Ford and Lachlan Timm both rank in the top 10 in multiple categories in reserve grade so it's not like we don't have some options.

https://www.nrl.com/stats/?competition=113&season=2019

 

[Belta]

I’ll never be convinced that stats alone paint a true picture but I it’s ignorant to totally ignore them. If was to signal one stat that worries me coming into the Knights game it would be the yardages by the bench props of the respective sides.

Last week Gavet in 29 mins made 108 arm
Ese’ese in 27 made 144 arm

Latimore in 12 made 15 arm
Luc in 45 made 44 arm
Total of our 4 bench players was 160 arm

I know there’s a million other things going on and a myriad of variances to explain and/or counter stats but I really think somewhere in amongst such stats lies a root problem that basically filters through to other areas of the game, ie lack of metres affects the play makers, the kicks in general play, how we defend etc etc

With the stats Walpole mentions of Timm and Ford, 2nd and 3rd in pcm for CC, surely we lose nothing replacing Lats with either of these.

 

[Dragonslayer]

I can break this down even further and its even more worrying:
Over the 9 rounds:
Conceeding 6 trys ib the 1st 30 mins is very good.
But, between the 30 -40th min we have conceeded 6 just in rhat 10min block. Then of course a break for half time, so hardly fatigue factor here.
Between the 40th - 50th min we conceed 5 trys mostly in the opening or 2nd set defensively (2×42nd min, 1x 44th min, 1x 45th min, 1x 46th). WTF hapoens to them at half time, do they take a nap!
The other big red light is that between the 70th and 80th min we have conceeded 7 trys, this is a mixture of fatigue and trying too hard to resurrect the game after the middle 30 mins had been so poor. I feel sorry fir JG, McInnes and co constantly tryingvto fix what the bench had stuffed up.

Very disappointing, that surely the coaching staff can see this and stop hoping for some sudden divine intervention that will change fortunes.

 

[BBTB]

I’ll never be convinced that stats alone paint a true picture but I it’s ignorant to totally ignore them. If was to signal one stat that worries me coming into the Knights game it would be the yardages by the bench props of the respective sides.

Last week Gavet in 29 mins made 108 arm
Ese’ese in 27 made 144 arm

Latimore in 12 made 15 arm
Luc in 45 made 44 arm
Total of our 4 bench players was 160 arm

I know there’s a million other things going on and a myriad of variances to explain and/or counter stats but I really think somewhere in amongst such stats lies a root problem that basically filters through to other areas of the game, ie lack of metres affects the play makers, the kicks in general play, how we defend etc etc

With the stats Walpole mentions of Timm and Ford, 2nd and 3rd in pcm for CC, surely we lose nothing replacing Lats with either of these.

Get rid of Latermore

 

[watatank]

We just put everything into trying to get as many points early as possible (much like our past few seasons) and hope that's enough.

The coach just expects the middle forwards to carry the team all the way through the game, which is hard to do when we're missing JDB and K.Sims and Frizell is not playing in the middle.

I don't mind the idea of having many younger forwards on the interchange just for a different look but chances are they are just going to struggle in defence and be ineffective in attack

First thing we should do is move Frizell to the middle. Then Lawrie comes off the bench. Then work around that.

 

[Carlton]

I’ll never be convinced that stats alone paint a true picture but I it’s ignorant to totally ignore them. If was to signal one stat that worries me coming into the Knights game it would be the yardages by the bench props of the respective sides.

Last week Gavet in 29 mins made 108 arm
Ese’ese in 27 made 144 arm

Latimore in 12 made 15 arm
Luc in 45 made 44 arm
Total of our 4 bench players was 160 arm

I know there’s a million other things going on and a myriad of variances to explain and/or counter stats but I really think somewhere in amongst such stats lies a root problem that basically filters through to other areas of the game, ie lack of metres affects the play makers, the kicks in general play, how we defend etc etc

With the stats Walpole mentions of Timm and Ford, 2nd and 3rd in pcm for CC, surely we lose nothing replacing Lats with either of these.

Latimore actually made 51 meters not 15. Lawrie makes less meters per run than any other forward in first grade and Leilua makes less meters per run than Latimore. The other thing to remember is there are meters and there are meters. Latimores runs are straight and up the middle, this is effective if he can attract several defenders, land on his front and get a quick play the ball. Many of the bigger meter numbers are running out lines and result in slower play the balls.

I am not saying to keep Latimore (you could swap him for Kerr/Timm and not lose anything but also probably not gain anything) but the problem with the team is in other areas.

 

[Old Timer]

Latimore actually made 51 meters not 15. Lawrie makes less meters per run than any other forward in first grade and Leilua makes less meters per run than Latimore. The other thing to remember is there are meters and there are meters. Latimores runs are straight and up the middle, this is effective if he can attract several defenders, land on his front and get a quick play the ball. Many of the bigger meter numbers are running out lines and result in slower play the balls.

I am not saying to keep Latimore (you could swap him for Kerr/Timm and not lose anything but also probably not gain anything) but the problem with the team is in other areas.

Not gain anything ????
Speed for starters would be handy.
Problem us in other areas????
The loss of momentum with his entry to the game is palpable.
Your post is exactly what the coaching staff say and the reason why we never have sustainable improvement.
Stick with the status quo FMD how ingenious is that?

 

[hazzbeen]

The power game as Mary calls it is shot to pieces . After 5 years of the same thing , teams are pickings us off in the second half of games by rushing up and cutting our meters gained as our forwards slow down .... The only time we can score is from ad lib stuff that's not in the coaches manual . It will continue as long as Mary is the coach ... Also leadership on the field is not there .

 

[Life's Good]

After our dismal showings over the last 3 weeks (and overall in 2019), there had to be some evidence that identified what is going wrong. From the stats below, it pretty damn obvious we have a problem in our attack and defence ie: trys scored against trys conceeded.

So, I have broken this down into:
First 30 mins (0-30)
Middle 30 mins (30-60)
Final 20 mins (60-80)

First 30:
Trys scored = 13
Trys conceeded = 6

Mid 30:
Trys scored = 8
Trys conceeded = 16

Final 20:
Trys scored = 7
Trys conceeded = 11

As you can see we blast out of the blocks for the first 30 mins, this is when we have starting pack. Mcgregor usually makes the first change (exception being the debarkle in rd9) between the 25th-30th min mark (barring injury). This when we bring on the likes of Lats and co. As you can see up to half time and by the time they are usually replaced (around the 60th min) it all turns to a pile of crap. The momentum gained in the first 30 is lost and momentum and confidence has swung to the opposition. The final 20 is spent trying to arrest back the monentum which at this late stage is too much a mountain to climb.

Its already been discussed ad-nauseum about our bench usage and who sits on it, but these stats really highlight our concerns.

Lats (i'm not blaminv him because he doesnt pick himself) and carrying a back on the bench is ludicris and this evidence proves why.

We need 4 forwards on the bench, who have enthusiasm and drive, 2 props, 1 edge and a utility who can play hooker or edge forward.
With the decision on JDB coming this week which will go a long way in determining our team moving forward.

With JDB:
Bench- Lawrie, K. Sims (Timm until he is fit), Leilua, Robson (if he leaves I'd promote Lovodua)

Without JDB:
Bench- K.Sims (Kerr until he returns), Timm, Leilua, Robson (or Lovodua as above).

With Team List Tuesday upon us surely McGregor has analysed our attack and defensive woes, but again we are talking McGregor.

Nice work DS.
The funny thing(or maybe sad thing) is that most of what you posted above has been stated by plenty on here more as gut feel than hard facts. All you've done is proven it with evidence from the games.
It makes you wonder what the hell the brains trust in our club look at when devising game plans, bench selection & bench use(I use the term lightly).
I mean, there's an endless list of trainers, statisticians, coaches etc. and something so obvious as this(and it would go back to last year & the year before that)clearly is being addressed.
I wish I could get a job like that.

 

[watatank]

btw is there a stat breakdown on line breaks or tackle breaks? I'd be interested in that. Thanks for the hard work anyway

 

[Belta]

Latimore actually made 51 meters not 15. Lawrie makes less meters per run than any other forward in first grade and Leilua makes less meters per run than Latimore. The other thing to remember is there are meters and there are meters. Latimores runs are straight and up the middle, this is effective if he can attract several defenders, land on his front and get a quick play the ball. Many of the bigger meter numbers are running out lines and result in slower play the balls.

I am not saying to keep Latimore (you could swap him for Kerr/Timm and not lose anything but also probably not gain anything) but the problem with the team is in other areas.

I’m not tech savvy and don’t know how to post the stats but I got those stats directly from the NRL website (from the weekends game). Are you saying they are wrong?

In any case I can never understand a reluctance to try young talent when the FG player they are replacing is barely cutting it. I thought Timm was really strong in the trials, it appears from his meterage in CC he’s continued this effort. I can’t see how it’s such a gamble. Kerr showed a lot also. I’m sure there’s others.

I know plenty will say there’s nothing to pick from, but I’m wondering if this is the case. It seems clear now that Garrick and Herbert were more than capable when we were shuffling Nightingale and co. around as there was apparently no depth.

 

[possm]

Get rid of Latermore

Latimore and Allgood should never have been extended no matter how cheap they are. For the rest of the season these two players should be consigned to the Canterbury Cup Competition (reserve grade).

We don't need a back on the bench. Robson will do fine and could move into a centre position if a back goes off injured.

Bench to made up of: Timm, Kerr, Leilua and Robson. Despite what some have said on here, McInnes does become fatigued and make silly mistakes when he is fatigued.

 

[possm]

I’m not tech savvy and don’t know how to post the stats but I got those stats directly from the NRL website (from the weekends game). Are you saying they are wrong?

In any case I can never understand a reluctance to try young talent when the FG player they are replacing is barely cutting it. I thought Timm was really strong in the trials, it appears from his meterage in CC he’s continued this effort. I can’t see how it’s such a gamble. Kerr showed a lot also. I’m sure there’s others.

I know plenty will say there’s nothing to pick from, but I’m wondering if this is the case. It seems clear now that Garrick and Herbert were more than capable when we were shuffling Nightingale and co. around as there was apparently no depth.

I'm sure all of the stats are available to the coach; nothing new here. The problem is with the coach and his capacity to do the job properly. Sack Mary, replace him with a decent coach and we will flourish.

 

[blacksafake]

This is where we miss Korbin.
He brings the energy,aggression & speed in the ruck when he comes on.Surely when he comes back Lats is gone.