Daily Tennis Exclusive: Women's AO Preview
Women's Look Forward: The Australian Open
You wonder why the television networks bother with "reality shows." All they have to do is head off to Melbourne and film "Survivor: Australian Open."
It's going to be a fascinating thing to watch, even if you don't care much about tennis. It seems like half the players are injured. Many of the rest are head cases. Is it possible that no one could be around at the end?
It's perhaps more likely than it sounds. Last year, in looking at the women, we sat down and listed the chances for each of the top contenders. That might be worth doing again.
The Player: Lindsay Davenport
Why she might win: She's #1, and she's done it before
Except: It's been five years since her last Slam. She's cancelled her retirement, but the very fact that she thought about it may indicate lack of drive. And then there are the injuries. He knee is bad, and she came in with bronchitis. And this is a lot of wear and tear, and Rebound Ace can be unforgiving, and she's fragile.
The Player: Amelie Mauresmo
Why she might win: Has been #1, so you know she has the game. Likes Rebound Ace
Except: She's Amelie Mauresmo. This year, she didn't even wait until the tournament started to suffer her standard Slam injury: She got hurt first. Between her head and her body, what are the odds? It doesn't help that she has to play Samantha Stosur in the first round and Dinara Safina in the second, either.
The Player: Anastasia Myskina
Why she might win: Good surface for her. Top Russian, and healthiest of the top three.
Except: "Healthiest" is not healthy; she has a bad rotator cuff and possibly other problems. Was uncharacteristically cranky at Sydney. Played only one Rebound Ace warmup match, which she lost. Hasn't really backed up her Roland Garros win
The Player: Maria Sharapova
Why she might win: High confidence.
Except: Didn't play any warmups (she finally got around to obeying the age restrictions, having played far more than she should have last year). Her numbers still skew very strongly toward faster surfaces; Rebound Ace is both unfamiliar and slow for her. Footwork is unexceptional, and Rebound Ace can make you pay for that.
The Player: Svetlana Kuznetsova
Why she might win: Obviously has the game
Except: Hasn't been playing warmups. Still inconsistent; she had one great spell last September, and was nearly invisible since.
The Player: Elena Dementieva
Why she might win: Only player with two Slam finals last year. Surface should suit her.
Except: Mentally, she's the most Russian of all the Russians. If she gets to the final, what are the odds of her actually bringing any sort of game to the court? Plus she played herself to death at Sydney,and eventually declared that it was too hot to play. If the weather stays warm, she's likely to be in trouble.
The Player: Serena Williams
Why she might win: One of only three past champions in the field (Davenport and Pierce being the others), and the only player here to have won in the last five years
Except: Reportedly suffering an abdominal strain, and she had, by her standards, a crummy year last year. Plus there is the question of her knee, which apparently has achieved Chronic Problem status: Can it stand up to Rebound Ace?
Justine Henin-Hardenne should have been next on our list. Obviously we know why she won't win: She won't play.
The Player: Venus Williams
Why she might win: Well -- she's Venus
Except: Not a good surface for her; has only one final in Melbourne. Despite a couple of titles last year, didn't beat a single Top Ten player. Will have to raise her game above the 2004 level to have any chance.
The Player: Vera Zvonareva
Why she might win: She's healthy
Except: She's Vera Zvonareva. She won't win unless her semifinal and final opponents are even worse basket cases than she is -- and what are the odds of that?
The Player: Alicia Molik
Why she might win: Since the Olympics, has arguably been one of the three best players on the Tour (along with Davenport and Sharapova). Knows the surface. Local favorite. Playing very well.
Except: She's facing awfully big expectations. This is the first time she's ever been considered a Slam contender; can she handle the pressure? Has played a lot of matches lately.
Below that, there really aren't many candidates. Nadia Petrova chokes in finals -- frequently in semifinals. Mary Pierce has won this event before, but she's not the same player these days. For all that the depth on the women's side has increased, there are no serious contenders below Molik; we have, in fact, a fairly long list of seeds with no career singles titles (Petrova, Karolina Sprem, Francesca Schiavone, Tatiana Golovin, Shinobu Asagoe, Gisela Dulko, Jelena Kostanic).
The other thing that makes this Open so unpredictable is all the surprising young players floating around ready to cause trouble. Start with Nicole Vaidisova. She's in Lindsay Davenport's section of the draw, which ordinarily would be bad news for the youngster, but given Davenport's recent problems, it could be interesting.
Our #2 Young Dangerous Floater is surely Ana Ivanovic, and she too is in position to do some damage: She opens against #32 seed Benesova, and would face Mauresmo in the third round.
Peng Shuai may not be able to do quite as much damage -- she doesn't face any Russians this time. But she could take on Venus in the second round.
Anna Chakvetadze, though, could face a Russian seed in the second round: She would face Elena Dementieva.
Of historical interest is the fact that this will be Barbara Schett's last tournament -- and her only singles event of 2005. It's surprising to note that she's retiring at the age of 28 -- but on the other hand, her singles ranking has been sliding fast for the last couple of years (though she's been rising in doubles); maybe it's time. She opens against a wildcard, so maybe she can win one last match.
Noteworthy First Round Matches
Davenport (1) vs. Martinez. There was a time when this would have been a good match. Then there was a time -- say, last year -- when this would have been an awful match. Martinez is sinking fast. But Davenport is hurt....
Daniilidou vs. (8) Venus Williams. Daniilidou is a mess, but her game is the sort Venus doesn't like to face, and the surface could well help Daniilidou. If both play at their late-2004 levels, Venus wins, but if Daniilidou plays at her best and Venus plays as if it's 2004, it might be interesting.
(3) Myskina vs. Peschke. So which Myskina will turn up? The one who was brilliant at Hopman Cup? Or the one who stunk up the place at Sydney, and then started whining? Kveta Peschke has been playing very well in the last six months; if Myskina has another sloppy patch, the cost could be high.
Mandula vs. (30) Pennetta. This won't get any TV coverage, but Mandula was an excellent slowcourt player before getting messed up last year. Pennetta too likes slow surfaces. It could be a high-drama match.
(22) Maleeva vs. Serna. Two very messed-up players, with Serna being more messed up -- and she has a lot of trouble early in the year even when she's on. But the Spaniard is great at surprising people on her best day, and she may finally be recovered from her injury. So this might have some genuine potential -- though, if Serna is in her late-2004 form, it won't last long.
(32) Benesova vs. Ivanovic. This may have the highest upset potential of any first round match.
Zheng vs. Safina. Zheng just won her first title, and is flying. Safina is, well, Safina. It could well be a blowout -- but it's hard to guess who will be the blower and who the blowee.
Stosur vs. (2) Mauresmo. Stosur has been in back-to-back finals, but she had two walkovers at Sydney, so she isn't too tired. And she's Australian, and on fire. Mauresmo hasn't been any too healthy. Maybe, just maybe, this could spell trouble.
The Rankings
Let's get the bad news over first. Last year's champion and finalist, Justine Henin-Hardenne and Kim Clijsters, aren't here. Both will fall hard. Henin-Hardenne will fall to no better than #13; a ranking around #15 or #16 is more likely. Clijsters sees half her points come off; she'll end up barely above #50.
Others who stand to lose a lot are:
* Patty Schnyder, the 2004 semifinalist; from a strong #14 she ends up in a near tie for #15 in safe points (and it wouldn't have been that high had she not started the year so well)
* Fabiola Zuluaga, also a semifinalist, who is only #26 in safe points, ten spots below her current ranking.
* Lisa Raymond, who beat Venus Williams last year, is far below #40 in safe points
But if someone is falling, that means that someone else has to rise. And it could be quite a rise. When we did our initial rankings cut, we were amazed to realize that no fewer than six players have at least a theoretical chance at the #1 ranking.
This is mostly because of the number of points various players are defending. Ever since the U. S. Open, we'd been talking about three players -- Lindsay Davenport, Amelie Mauresmo, Anastasia Myskina -- with chances for #1. As it turns out, those three all have over 200 points to defend; the next three players (Maria Sharapova, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Elena Dementieva) all have less than 75 points. Dementieva has nothing at all. And the winner of the Australian Open can expect to earn at least 900 points, and perhaps as many as 1200. So things are more wide-open than usual.
In safe points, Mauresmo is not quite 300 points behind Davenport. That's nice for Davenport; it means that Mauresmo has to reach at least the semifinal to have a chance for the top spot. Below that we have abig knot of players. Myskina is fully 750 points behind Davenport, Dementieva is about 125 points behind her, Sharapova 40 points behind that, and Kuznetsova a mere 6 points behind Sharapova. All of them would need at least a final, and probably a title, to pass Davenport -- but it's possible.
For Davenport, a final all but guarantees her #1 spot; only Mauresmo could pass her, and only if the quality points break just right. If she falls before the semifinal, though, odds are that the winner of the Australian Open, whichever of the other five it is, will be #1.
Mauresmo is also fairly secure, with almost a 500 point lead on the others. For one of the Russians to pass her will certainly take a semifinal, and probably a final.
But let's restate the above in other terms: the gap between #3 Myskina and #6-in-safe-points Kuznetsova is only 1about 75 points. And Serena Williams is only 500 points back. That means we also have a five-way contest for the #3 ranking. And whoever does best just might make #2 -- or higher.
We also have a contest for spots in the Top Ten. With Justine Henin-Hardenne sure to fall, we know that we will gain at least one new Top Ten player. We can safely guarantee that Davenport, Mauresmo, Myskina, Dementieva, Sharapova, Kuznetsova, and Serena will be in the Top Ten after this is over. But Jennifer Capriati, since she isn't playing, is quite vulnerable, and Venus Williams is also under threat (she actually trails Capriati in safe points). In terms of points in the bank, Vera Zvonareva is #10, about 150 points behind Venus. But Alicia Molik and Nadia Petrova are both less than 200 points behind her. Effectively, it comes down to those five; the next active player, Patty Schnyder, is nearly 800 points behind Zvonareva, and would probably need a title to hit the Top Ten.
Almost anyone in the field could theoretically hit the Top 20 with a title here.
Key Matches
Usually, when we do this section, we can say, "If so-and-so wins this match, she moves up to such-and-such rank," or "If so-and-so doesn't win at least this number of matches, she falls below number something-or-other." Given the situation outlined above, with so many players competing for so many rankings, there isn't much of that we can do. At best, we can look at the challenges each player faces.
#1 seed Davenport's route looks pretty good. Conchita Martinez doesn't seem to be much of a threat, and the second round is even easier. The first seed Davenport would face is Jelena Kostanic, though Nicole Vaidisova might come through instead. In the fourth round, the seed is Karolina Sprem. If this were clay, we'd say that's trouble. On speedbumped Rebound Ace, it probably isn't. The first real test for Davenport is in the quarterfinal, against Venus or Molik. And if Davenport wins that, her chances of staying #1 are pretty good -- unless she plays Anastasia Myskina in that round, in which case Myskina will have a shot at the top ranking. And Myskina did win their meeting at the year-end Championships....
#2 seed Mauresmo's draw is distinctly tougher. Samantha Stosur in the first round probably wouldn't be much of a challenge in any other country -- but this is Australia. Then comes the Zheng/Safina winner, then probably Ana Ivanovic. Then Amy Frazier or Ai Sugiyama, or just possibly Evgenia Linetskaya -- none of them as good as Mauresmo, but all players who can make you think, and make you work, and the injured Mauresmo doesn't need that. Then comes Serena Williams, then Sharapova or Kuznetsova. Her draw alone seems to make Mauresmo's task nearly impossible, and that's before you factor in Mauresmo-ness.
Other than having to start against Kveta Peschke, the draw was quite kind to #3 seed Myskina. The first seed she would face is Lisa Raymond, and Raymond has had the worst results of any seed in the field over the eleven months since the 2004 Australian Open. Nathalie Dechy or Francesca Schiavone in the third round won't be much of a challenge. And then, if the seeds hold, Myskina would face Elena Dementieva. Myskina generally gets the better of these all-Russian battles. Then -- Davenport.
Maria Sharapova's draw is also quite good: A qualifier, then a player ranked below #80, then Shinobu Asagoe, who loves Slams but who certainly can't hit with Sharapova. The next round, against Silvia Farina Elia or Mary Pierce, is more interesting, but Sharapova still has the edge in weapons (at least against the Pierce of 2005, who is after all ten years removed from her title here). It will be much more interesting to see how Sharapova fares against Svetlana Kuznetsova in the quarterfinal, then Serena or Mauresmo in the semi. Still, it's hard to imagine a better draw for the Russian than this.
If Sharapova has one problem, it's that Kuznetsova is likely to be well-rested. She too faces a qualifier, and her potential second round opponent, Marion Bartoli, is hurt. Gisela Dulko can be overpowered. The first real opponent for Kuznetsova is Vera Zvonareva -- and we all know what her mental state is like. Then comes Sharapova.
#6 seed Dementieva also has to like her draw, which, if the seeds hold, reads A. Bondarenko, Chakvetadze, Hantuchova, Schnyder. Dementieva beat Schnyder last week, though not easily, and seems able to handle the rest. Myskina is another matter. #7 seed Serena seems to be champing at the bit to get going. And that was even before she learned that her draw was Pin-Randriantefy-Pennetta. Serena should reach the fourth round without even breaking a sweat. After that, though, she'll need to get her return game in order, since she faces Nadia Petrova for the right to face Mauresmo. There isn't much question: Venus Williams has the worst draw of the bunch. Only Mauresmo's comes close to being comparable. Venus has to open against Daniilidou, then Sydney semifinalist Peng Shuai, then steady Anna Smashnova. Then comes the worst luck of all: Alicia Molik, unquestionably the toughest seed below the Top Eight. And while Molik has played a lot this year, and will face a tough third round against Jelena Jankovic, her early rounds shouldn't test her much. The Molik-versus-Venus match could be one of the best. And Venus is by no means a sure bet to win. And if she does win, then she has to face Davenport, who owned her last year..
