Brisbane2 Bid News

[BDGS]

As has been pointed out numerous times, it's not first and foremost the crowds, it's the ratings.

Leigh

I understand that mate, but surely big ratings in the first few years (or the honey moon period) does not compensate for for long term poor crowds? Which may also effect those ratings.

 

[Beowulf]

If the Bears cheer squad havent got this by now, they never will....

We understand perfectly that ratings make up a ONE of the criteria. The Bears believe they add to ratings - whether as much as alternatives if a matter for debate, but on all other criteria the Bears believe their case is compelling....including readiness, stadiums and their locations, sponsors and potential sponsors, local and RL community support, merchandise potential, financial model and sustainability, player talent, experience, lack of negative impact on other teams etc etc.

David Gallop and the IC will decide what weighting they give to each criteria, not anyone here. The Bears are given to understand ratings are NOT the be and end all.

 

[AuDragon]

We understand perfectly that ratings make up a ONE of the criteria. The Bears believe they add to ratings - whether as much as alternatives if a matter for debate, but on all other criteria the Bears believe their case is compelling....including readiness, stadiums and their locations, sponsors and potential sponsors, local and RL community support, merchandise potential, financial model and sustainability, player talent, experience, lack of negative impact on other teams etc etc.

David Gallop and the IC will decide what weighting they give to each criteria, not anyone here. The Bears are given to understand ratings are NOT the be and end all.

This is more wishful thinking than actually realistic. TV ratings will be the decisive criteria, and it's by far the weakest point of the Bears bid, contrary to the WA Reds and Brisbane 2 (or another SEQ) bids.

 

[CC_Roosters]

This is more wishful thinking than actually realistic. TV ratings will be the decisive criteria, and it's by far the weakest point of the Bears bid, contrary to the WA Reds and Brisbane 2 (or another SEQ) bids.

Isn't it the case that an additional game would influence the rights more than an additional market in the NRL's case, given it is largely an unproven tv product in Perth?

 

[AuDragon]

Isn't it the case that an additional game would influence the rights more than an additional market in the NRL's case, given it is largely an unproven tv product in Perth?

The additional games are a given if expansion does take place. The question is where will the best ratings come from, and according to the broadcasters predictions, it's a no brainer in favour of SEQ and WA, when compared to the other markets with a credible bid...

 

[BDGS]

The additional games are a given if expansion does take place. The question is where will the best ratings come from, and according to the broadcasters predictions, it's a no brainer in favour of SEQ and WA, when compared to the other markets with a credible bid...

Please post a link to this prediction from the broadcasters, thanks.

 

[hellteam]

The Bears will get smaller crowds than the Brisbane team anyway....

 

[bobmar28]

Please post a link to this prediction from the broadcasters, thanks.

I'm sure the IC will ask them. Will you be ok with the answer given?

 

[Goddo]

Lets have a throw down:
Brisbane II vs Central Coast

CROWDS

A second Brisbane side would mop the floor with a Central Coast club when it comes to attendences. It would be reasonable to expect a conservative "average round" draw for each team:

(Ignoring the honeymoon effect, assuming this club starts around 10-15k fans, and using Broncos attendences for a rough guide to what teams draw in Brisbane)

40k - Broncos (conservative estimate, more likely to be 48-50k)
30k - Cowboys / Dragons / Bulldogs / Titans (big support in Brisbane for these clubs)
25k - Eels / Raiders
20k - Rabbitohs / Sea Eagles / Storm / Warriors / Tigers
15k - Panthers / Sharks / Roosters
10k - Reds/ Knights (picked a very low floor for these 2 games)

Thats an average of 22.5k - greater than every club in 2011 except the Broncos and almost beating the Bulldogs.

Thats before you even manipulate the schedule to improve crowds - first and last games of the season, games around origin and tests, et cetera. With scheduling it would be fairly easy to get a 25k average for this side.

They can't fit more than 20k into Bluetongue. At a guess in an average year, the Bears would get somewhere around 15-16k (3 low drawing games around 11k, 3 high drawing games around 20k, 6 around 13-17k).

 

[Goddo]

STADIUMS

Suncorp Stadium, 52,500 vs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Bluetongue Stadium 20,119

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

At 20,119 Bluetongue would be amoung the smallest grounds in the NRL, on par with Brookvale Oval, Toyota Park, Leichhardt Oval. Better facilities than these grounds, but restricted in capacity to expand. Northern end has potential for second tier increasing capacity by about two thousand, but Southern end can't be changed because the main road into Gosford and quite a bit of expensive bridging are right next to the stadium.

Expansion isn't really justified either when you look at the population and attendences at the ground.

 

[Goddo]

BROADCAST MARKETS

Central Coast (partly NSW regional, but mostly Sydney Metro OzTam)

Currently there is 1 NSW regional side (Newcastle, partly St George Illawarra).
Currently 9 Sydney Metro sides. Sydney metro population roughly 4.5 million, but divided between 9 current sides. Roughly 0.5 million per club.

Addition of 10th side would make it 0.45 million per club*

*Central Coast would have a niche and will try to claim North Sydney which is 1 million, and reconnect with 40,000 Bears fans. However, this region has a largely Rugby Union as well as AFL and Soccer following, as well as other NRL fans live there.
Not so easy to guage its true size, but probably somewhere between 0.4-1.0 million.

Brisbane (Brisbane Metro OzTam)

Currently 2 Brisbane Metro sides, however one is part of a geographical area with a seperate identity (Gold Coast).
Brisbane metro population roughly 2.05 million + 0.54 million on Gold Coast, total around 2.7m

Addition of 3rd Brisbane metro club, you could say 0.9 million per club, but when concidering the seperation of GC, it would be fairer to say 1.1 million each Broncos/Brisbane II, 0.5 million Gold Coast (this is reflected in the number of FTA games the Broncos and Titans currently get)

Clearly, the market for a second Brisbane side is bigger than the market for a 10th Sydney/Central Coast side.

 

[Goddo]

FTA BROADCAST EXPOSURE

Current structure:

* FTA 1st pick FNF features a South East Queensland side, most often Brisbane (as mentioned above, Gold Coast has a smaller seperate geographic identity)
* FTA 2nd pick FNF all Sydney game to maximise Sydney OzTam ratings.
* PayTV 3rd pick MNF, and either features an all Sydney game or a NSW side vs Queensland side game to maximise ratings (depends on form of Queensland teams)
* Pay TV 4th pick Saturday evening, best remaining.
* FTA 5th pick Sunday, usually an all Sydney game as the best Queensland games are already gone.
* PayTV 6-8th Sat/Sun

So, 6 FTA slots:
* 3-5 featuring Sydney metro teams,
* 1-2 featuring Brisbane metro teams (mostly Broncos as they better reflect Bris metro),
* maybe 1-2 other (Newcastle, Melbourne, Canberra, New Zealand)

Quality and quantity of Queensland teams, especially in Brisbane is lacking for PayTv, and also FTA for Sunday or MNF if it goes to FTA in the next deal. (If MNF becomes FTA, the broadcaster will want a Sydney/Brisbane game to max metro ratings)

If anything the number of Free to Air slots for Sydney/NSW clubs will either remain the same or reduce by 1, even if a 4th game is shown FTA.


With Anti-Siphoning changes, Broadcasters will want to show Brisbane, Perth and Melbourne games more for local content.

In that light, adding a 10th team to the Sydney market will be spreading the current Free to Air exposure even thinner, and thats before the effect on the small exposure regional Newcastle and Canberra get is concidered.

Conclusion: 3 Brisbane metro clubs (with 2 actually in Brisbane) will get better broadcast exposure and value than 10 Sydney metro clubs + 2 NSW/ACT regional clubs.

 

[Goddo]

POPULATION GROWTH

By 2056 the population of each state will be:

New South Wales - currently 10 NRL sides
10.2M people (3.3M increase)

Queensland - currently 3 NRL sides
8.7M people (4.2M increase)

Victoria - currently 1 NRL side
8.5M people (3.3M increase)

Western Australia - currently no NRL side
4.3M people (2.2M increase)

South Australia - currently no NRL side
2.2M people (620k increase)

___________- by city -___________
Sydney
7M (currently 4.3M) - Currently 9 NRL teams

Melbourne
6.7M (currently 3.7M) - Currently 1 NRL team

Brisbane*
4M (currently 1.8M) - Currently 1 NRL team
*does not include Gold Coast:
1.1M (currently 0.5M) - Currently 1 NRL team

Perth
3.4M (currently 1.5M) - Currently no NRL team

Adelaide
1.7M (currently 1.1M) - Currently no NRL team

Canberra
0.5M (currently 0.3M) - Currently 1 NRL team

http://www.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3222.0

 

[Red&BlackBear]

I'm not gonna bother highlighting all the pro's/positives for the Central Coast Bears, again, especially in here. But I will leave you with;

http://forums.leagueunlimited.com/showthread.php?t=377422

http://forums.leagueunlimited.com/showthread.php?t=356575

Those links provide all the information one could want on the CCBears. re; stadium upgrades, population booms, TV numbers, crowd numbers etc. I'll leave assumptions and hypothetical situations to you and Craig Davison.

Using 2056's population for your argument is gold though.:roll: I've heard of reaching but geez that takes the cake.

 

[Goddo]

I was wondering how much bait I'd have to throw out to get you to show.

Just for you Red&BlackBear:

SPONSORSHIPS

The Brisbane bid will eclipse the Bears. Currently the Bears have around $6M in sponsors lined up, which is on par with the poorest Sydney clubs.

Stronger clubs like St George and Canterbury are around $9.5-10M. The Broncos are at $12M.

Brisbane II bid is looking at a similar figure to the Broncos from what they have said, possibly even greater due to the "foundation sponsor" effect. They haven't anounced details yet to protect the bid and sponsors before going to the ARL commission with the complete bid.

They are currently looking at an operating budget of over $20M after the NRL grant and some private investment monies. The average club operates on $12-15M

EDIT:
http://www.battleforbrisbane.com.au...st-to-take-on-broncos&catid=38:news&Itemid=54

 

[Red&BlackBear]

I was wondering how much bait I'd have to throw out to get you to show.

Just for you Red&BlackBear:

SPONSORSHIPS

The Brisbane bid will eclipse the Bears. Currently the Bears have around $6M in sponsors lined up, which is on par with the poorest Sydney clubs.

Stronger clubs like St George and Canterbury are around $9.5-10M. The Broncos are at $11M.

Brisbane II bid is looking at a similar figure to the Broncos from what they have said. They haven't anounced details yet to protect the bid and sponsors before going to the ARL commission with the complete bid.

They are currently looking at an operating budget of over $20M after the NRL grant and some private investment monies.

Aren't you nice, however...

The Central Coast Bears have $15 million equity and yes CURRENTLY have $6million worth of sponsors. Brisbane 2 has $750,000 worth of sponsors CURRENTLY. However due to the maturity of the bid we'll have eclipsed any $$ Brisbane 2 can get by kick off 2013.

What you fail to realize/understand/comprehend is what Craig Davison wishes to achieve in the near future, the Central Coast Bears have ALREADY achieved in the recent past.

You say the Bears $6m WITHOUT A CLUB, compared to the poorest NRL club is a bad thing. Might I mention again, WITHOUT A CLUB. Because if we can achieve this much corporate support WITHOUT A CLUB, by the time we have a club, those figures will increase tenfold. Might I add that their have been investors who are willing to throw many more millions into the Bears bid.

* BTW out of curiosity if the CCBears $6m without a club is poor, what does that make BNE2's $750K

Don't let facts get in your way though, they haven't so far in your rant.

I'll let you continue now. Maybe you and the other 8 BNE 2 supporters can think up of plans to actually bring BNE 2 back down to Earth and into the present. You have their phone number don't you? You volunteer for their cause right? You've seen them out in the Brisbane community haven't you?:sarcasm:

 

[Goddo]

So lets recap
Brisbane II wins in:

Crowds, Stadium, TV exposure, TV ratings, TV rights, sponsorships, population, population growth

Central Coast wins in:
$20 memberships (most of whom are fans of other clubs, backing the Bears from a nostalgia pov, similar to the support Souths got in their march in 2001)

 

[Red&BlackBear]

So lets recap
Brisbane II wins in:

Crowds, Stadium, TV exposure, TV ratings, TV rights, sponsorships, population, population growth

Central Coast wins in:
$20 memberships (most of whom are fans of other clubs, backing the Bears from a nostalgia pov, similar to the support Souths got in their march in 2001)

So let's use history to gauge this since history is all we have to go on off..

Did the last 2nd Brisbane team get better crowds? TV exposure? TV rating? Tv Rights? Sponsorship? Then the last Bears incarnation?

No, no, no, no and definitely no.

If 1m population per team is your argument for Brisbane 2... then what about the 1m population in the Bears region? Oh thats right.. every single one of those 1m people for Brisbane 2 will, by your view, support the Brisbane 2.. yet the 1m population for the Bears region, where the Bears pre-existed for 100+years won't...:roll:

I think the Bears 1m population have a better chance of following their Bears due to a long serving history than any start up team, regardless of where they are.:sarcasm:

You're saying that the majority of Central Coast Bears members are fans from other teams... yet Brisbane 2 has it's own fan base?:lol:.. Last time I checked Brisbane 2 struggled to crack 480 fans. whilst the Central Coast Bears had 26,000 fans and 7000 members. Does Brisbane 2 even have members? Thats right they're not important to their plans.. I guess a brand or headquarters aren't important to their plans either... Actually does Brisbane 2 even have their own fans (not fans of other clubs)? CCBears do, WAReds do, CQLD do...

Keep going though please, I needed a good laugh today and I didn't realize how good you were as a comedian.

 

[Goddo]

Aren't you nice, however...

The Central Coast Bears have $15 million equity and yes CURRENTLY have $6million worth of sponsors. Brisbane 2 has $750,000 worth of sponsors CURRENTLY. However due to the maturity of the bid we'll have eclipsed any $$ Brisbane 2 can get by kick off 2013.

I know you are angry because your bid is fast fading into obscurity, but untangle your knickers. When the Bears fail I don't want you to self harm in any way. Relax.

The Brisbane II bid has sponsors locked in, but have not disclosed them because they are planning a major launch/push in the weeks leading up to the ARLC request for bids.

Is it not true that most of the Bears equity is tied up in the Leagues club? Bit rich adding that to your total.

"Maturity of bid" :lol:. Just because you are the oldest doesn't make you the best. Also, simply by being in better locations Perth and Brisbane II have to be the front runners. By some accounts expansion may not even happen in 2013, more likely 2014.

What you fail to realize/understand/comprehend is what Craig Davison wishes to achieve in the near future, the Central Coast Bears have ALREADY achieved in the recent past.

You say the Bears $6m WITHOUT A CLUB, compared to the poorest NRL club is a bad thing. Might I mention again, WITHOUT A CLUB. Because if we can achieve this much corporate support WITHOUT A CLUB, by the time we have a club, those figures will increase tenfold. Might I add there have already been investors who are willing to throw many more millions into the Bears bid.

You are such a goose. You say "Brisbanes plans don't count because they are reliant on getting a licence" before saying "Bears support will improved 10 fold if we get a licence".

So, that will happen for the Bears but not Brisbane II... riiiighhht.

* BTW out of curiosity if the CCBears $6m without a club is poor, what does that make BNE2's $750K

Don't let facts get in your way though, they haven't so far in your rant.

I'll let you continue now. Maybe you and the other 8 BNE 2 supporters can think up of plans to actually bring BNE 2 back down to Earth and into the present. You have their phone number don't you? You volunteer for their cause right? You've seen them out in the Brisbane community haven't you?:sarcasm:

You are repeating yourself a bit here. Just like your "membership drive" or "update" posts on the Central Coast thread. You often have little to add to the expansion discussions.

You also like to compare a potenially reformed club with an existing (if small) fan base and nostalgic support from other old NSWRL fans with a new bid, with a completely new identity.

Brisbane II can't sell its history because it has none. But thats part of the formula of this club - its going to be new and its going to be big. Not some mouldy old leather patch brigade club from North Sydney, who are looking desperate now there is a bit of competition.

 

[Goddo]

Also, why do you need to bump the Central Coast thread every day, even if you have nothing to say? Be it an update that you have 2 new $20 members, or an up comming reserve grade game (which doesn't belong on the main NRL board btw).

Some days you don't even have anything to post, and you make a one sentance bump "aren't we doing great" post.

Are you seriously that worried about your bid that you can't let it drop off the front page for a day or two?

EDIT: oh, by the by, I am actually more of a fan of the Western Corridor Ipswich-Logan bid in terms of Brisbane. I think we should be looking to a Brisbane + Satellite sides model rather than a 2x Brisbane model. However, I can see that a 2 Brisbane model will work very well, and also that the TV deal will dictate where the NRL expands, so long as the bids are servicable. Which at this point means Perth and Brisbane II.