News Coronavirus and NRL

[unforgiven]

It's like not banning crowds of 1000 or 2000 at a footy match, but saying it is OK because you've got rules in place for how they enter the stadium, line up for food, or go to the toilet.

Of course it is different mate!

 

[wibble]

A couple of interesting graphs!
View attachment 36940

They are interesting.

The top graph doesn't bode so well for us, given that our doubling rate was slowed early on from the long time we had contained a few people from oversees.

The bottom graph is for the US population, so I assume the probabilities would be higher here for the same number of cases. But even so, if we get to about 10 000 to 20 000 active circulating cases (the scenario B at 20 000), it would appear the probability of a person being present at 1000+ crowd is about 2%. That is not good for our many (over 100, near 108) schools with over 1500 students (not to mention our many more with 1000+ staff and students).

If we have 10 000 now (which is not an impossible estimate, that is how many there were estimated to be in the UK with similar number of confirmed cases
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/...tish-people-already-infected-2020-3?r=US&IR=T
and the estimates for Wuhan and France at our number of confirmed cases was much higher), that means there is about a 64% probability at least one of those 1500+ sized schools has a positive attendee (based on the US probabilities and population size of 2% per "event").

The clarification from the Chief Medical Officer that 1.5 mtrs in the classroom was not feasible but other strategies were being implemented to counter that. You are banging on about a fluffed line from Morrison that has since been clarified!

It doesn't matter that it was a fluffed line from Morrison. I mean, he should come out and admit he fluffed it, and he won't, but even so, you keep banging on about these next to useless other strategies.

Morrison could have said to paint everyone in yoghurt and it wouldn't change the fact that kids are crowded into class rooms, despite the other things some schools are able to do to reduce lunch time mixing of students (hasn't happened anywhere I know of though).

If you are happy with a 64% chance of having a potential super spreader at one of our big schools (plus close to 100% if you consider our schools that are only 1000+) that is your opinion.

I happen to think that a very dangerous virus, with an R0 of maybe 2.5 and a mortality of maybe 1-2% in ideal conditions, is way too risky to be leaving to staggered lunch times and cancelling school assemblies.

 

[unforgiven]

I feel like need to embrace the time we live in and the technology available by diverting whatever we can online to keep things running, this includes education and work wherever possible.

What do we do in communities where this is not feasible?

 

[wibble]

Ill chuck my 2 cents in with the school and social distancing argument. Yea in theory it is possible and can function ok but there is a point getting glossed over. Had anyone actually told a small child (so focusing first graders here) to do the simplest and most basic of tasks? (such as stay in this area and dont go near that person).

I have told my very much younger cousins at that age to not stick their hand in a campfire and they still tried it. The health bored are relying on the only human creatures that are the only thing more derptarded than asian tourists

You know those sports "stars" who touch microphones and "influencers" who lick public spaces?

High schools are full of wannabe sport stars and influencers. You tell them not to stick a hand in a camp fire and one will stick theirs, and their mates in it, just for laughs.

I believe unforgiven works in a smaller primary school.

In large high schools, even without the clowns who don't do anything they are told to do, even if everyone stayed away from everyone else before school, after school, and at lunch, they still pack into a small room for 5 hours of the day (and not the same room for each of those 5 hours, and not the same mix of 30 students for each of those 5 hours). 1000, 2000 people, living on top of each other (30 at a time), 40 or 50 cm apart in most cases, for most the day.

If we are just concerned about spreading other diseases to our community in a flu season that will be sh*tacular with coronavirus on top, schools will be your best way of making the whole community sick (it also says so in the paper on the flu that the Chief Medical Officer mentions when discussing why closing schools isn't "proportional").

I had to send 3 sick kids home in the first 30 minutes today. One was coughing his lungs up over everyone and didn't care, and refused to leave. I doubt anyone here has coronavirus yet, but we might all have that kids cough ready just in time for when coronavirus hits us properly in a few weeks.

 

[wibble]

Regarding the schools is there any plan going behind the scene to move lessons online to keep the system going as best as possible if/when closures come? I feel like need to embrace the time we live in and the technology available by diverting whatever we can online to keep things running, this includes education and work wherever possible.

Shutting everything down full stop is not the answer for any more than a short period of time. Even as we speak I'd hope resources are being redirected to create jobs in areas that suddenly have a lot more demand to somewhat offset the industries that cannot operate as normal and the job losses that will cause.

It would be nice to have some plans.

But the official line is that we aren't closing, so not much planning is happening. The PM today says his intent is to keep schools open for the next 6 months.

I agree resources should be redirected, and jobs (and manufacturing) switched to areas we need. Should have been happening from the start of February when we knew this thing was going to hit us.

I also agree with unforgiven that there are many people who will not have access to technology to use online education. Probably the same applies to online work. But I guess if we were planning about now rather than carrying on as normal we could try to deal with this (not that I have any solutions).

 

[unforgiven]

The top graph doesn't bode so well for us, given that our doubling rate was slowed early on from the long time we had contained a few people from oversees.

Actually the top graph shows that this virus doesn't have a true exponential growth, in every country the growth rate falls the more time that passes. Even in Australia our growth rate has dropped from 1.27 to 1.2 in the last 4 days and that is before any of the new measure would have taken effect. The key is to get that rate to continue to drop! We want to push out our current doubling rate like other countries have!

Anyway I'm over arguing this and think I'll listen to the advice of the experts!

 

[wibble]

Of course it is different mate!

Obviously it is literally different. I was using simile.

But how is the theory any different? Of allowing people to mix freely in crowds of 1000 or 2000 for a bit, but saying that is OK because some of that time they'll be separated?

 

[unforgiven]

It would be nice to have some plans.

But the official line is that we aren't closing, so not much planning is happening. The PM today says his intent is to keep schools open for the next 6 months.

I agree resources should be redirected, and jobs (and manufacturing) switched to areas we need. Should have been happening from the start of February when we knew this thing was going to hit us.

I also agree with unforgiven that there are many people who will not have access to technology to use online education. Probably the same applies to online work. But I guess if we were planning about now rather than carrying on as normal we could try to deal with this (not that I have any solutions).

Online work is a bit different, for a company there is an incentive for them to provide the technology needed, that is not possible for online education!

 

[unforgiven]

Obviously it is literally different. I was using simile.

But how is the theory any different? Of allowing people to mix freely in crowds of 1000 or 2000 for a bit, but saying that is OK because some of that time they'll be separated?

Because the idea in schools should be to limit the amount of people that each student is coming in to contact with, to push it below 50.

 

[wibble]

Actually the top graph shows that this virus doesn't have a true exponential growth, in every country the growth rate falls the more time that passes. Even in Australia our growth rate has dropped from 1.27 to 1.2 in the last 4 days and that is before any of the new measure would have taken effect. The key is to get that rate to continue to drop! We want to push out our current doubling rate like other countries have!

Anyway I'm over arguing this and think I'll listen to the advice of the experts!

Nothing has true exponential growth in that sense. It is more accurately a logistic curve (S shape), and the first "half" of the logistic curve looks like exponential growth.

The fact that numbers of infections go up day to day shows we are (probably) in the exponential growth phase still (a rate of 1.27 to 1.2 in 4 days is neither here nor there for that). That is not quite accurate, as delays in onset of symptoms, and/or increase in testing, could mean you have increased number of cases per day but are past the inflexion point (out of the exponential growth phase).

The only countries that have "pushed out" that doubling appear to Singapore, Japan, and South Korea (though Japan and Singapore have really had lower doubling rates all along). There are various explanations for this in those three countries, but I doubt the circumstances in any of those countries closely match ours.

Each country is unique, and us being landlocked is an advantage, but our circumstances seem to me to more closely resemble the many European countries that are really starting to struggle now (just a few weeks behind in case numbers).

 

[wibble]

Because the idea in schools should be to limit the amount of people that each student is coming in to contact with, to push it below 50.

So if I use the example of ticketed bays that people are sent to (much like they are in, say, a rugby league game) that would make my simile better? Then are you ok with crowd events of 2000, sent to bays, not mixing with other bays before or after the match or to get food?

 

[wibble]

Online work is a bit different, for a company there is an incentive for them to provide the technology needed, that is not possible for online education!

I agree entirely. Obviously some students will be self incentivised, but those are the ones who would do fine with minimal school guidance anyway. School closures are a big risk to months or years of important education for the vast majority of our students.

(This will make our inevitable school closures in a week or so even harder, especially as we are not planning for them now).

 

[unforgiven]

So if I use the example of ticketed bays that people are sent to (much like they are in, say, a rugby league game) that would make my simile better? Then are you ok with crowd events of 2000, sent to bays, not mixing with other bays before or after the match or to get food?

No your simile is still rubbish but I'll let that slide and address your post as if the situations are the same and we still have the issue of essential and non essential activities!

 

[unforgiven]

I agree entirely. Obviously some students will be self incentivised, but those are the ones who would do fine with minimal school guidance anyway. School closures are a big risk to months or years of important education for the vast majority of our students.

(This will make our inevitable school closures in a week or so even harder, especially as we are not planning for them now).

I would have thought a 2 week extension to the school holidays would have been appropriate but the medical experts didn't agree so I can only go with what they say over my and your limited knowledge of pandemics!

 

[Cactus]

I think this is getting out of hand.

No. I don't mean the virus !

 

[AJB1102]

Great so all the elderly and disabled people get locked in their homes for who knows how long just so selfish people can continue as normal?

What about the 21 year old Spanish coach who died because he had leukaemia, and so was vulnerable, but didn't know about it? Oh well, just collateral damage

The elderly and disabled make up a small portion of the workforce. They make up a great percentage of our unemployment or retired. We're much better they stay home than the vast majority crucial to making the country keep ticking.

Those at most risk should be most careful. Surely thats f**king obvious. Oh shit, a guy with leukemia died? Since when were immunocompromised more susceptible it viruse ...?... Always.

 

[Spot On]

Regarding the schools is there any plan going behind the scene to move lessons online to keep the system going as best as possible if/when closures come? I feel like need to embrace the time we live in and the technology available by diverting whatever we can online to keep things running, this includes education and work wherever possible.

Shutting everything down full stop is not the answer for any more than a short period of time. Even as we speak I'd hope resources are being redirected to create jobs in areas that suddenly have a lot more demand to somewhat offset the industries that cannot operate as normal and the job losses that will cause.

Yes, online learning is in place as are learning packs for those without tech/internet access.

 

[wibble]

Take one crisis.......mix a response with some common sense..... add some general know how, and then add some grown up control, and then grow a set and a spine aswell and do what is necessary without the need to resort to panicky alarm.

And in particular DO NOT take, as absolute, a nomination of square meterage as some benchmark for you to question the world order with.

You and the kids will do fine and hopefully everyone will be completely unaffected.

That is of course if you really are a teacher.

Excellent suggestions. The coronavirus will really start to respect me if I grow a set and a spine, and won't infect me. I'll mix some common sense, some general knowhow, throw in some bay leaves, and even if I'm spending 5 hours in close quarters with an infected person, I'll do fine.

And here I was panicking for nothing.

 

[wibble]

With Scomo in charge, i give it 3 weeks before Australia hits 20,000 cases.

Reading about Italy right now it’s pretty f**king grim. If we get like that here NRL going under is going to a be long way down the priority list, a long way.

Would kids lose a whole year of school if that happens and have to repeat whatever year they are in?. It’s been in my head when it comes to that issue.

Every country where numbers have continued to grow have headed to lock downs and school,closures. It’s a matter of when not if in all likelihood. If doing it sooner rather than later would be beneficial is the question we need answering.

Hello fellow panickers (it's a word now...)!

Inspired by beautiful poetry and sweet dreams, I will try to show why I am so very worried about this coronavirus outbreak. I know it will come off to many as me trying to be a know it all, but if there is a chance one person takes things a little more seriously now and tries a little more to protect the community and prepare themselves, it is worth having a few memes thrown at me.

Why is this coronavirus pandemic such a big deal?

The TLDR version:

1) Caronavirus is very deadly. About 5 to 20 times deadlier per case than the flu

2) Caronavirus spreads much more easily than the flu

3) Caronavirus will infect about 60% of the population if left unchecked

That equals maybe 200 000 deaths if we aren’t careful.

4) Viruses start off growing exponentially, so our 800 cases now could easily be 200 000 by round 6 of the NRL if we don’t stop it doubling every 3 to 4 days.

5) To stop the coronavirus doubling so often, we need to do extreme social isolation measures, maybe for months, until we hopefully get a vaccine. Which is terrible. But the alternatives are too horrible to even consider

 

[wibble]

1) Coronavirus is really dangerous. It is not "just like a flu".

The current WHO estimated mortality is about 3.4%. In Italy, it is a disastrous 7%. In South Korea, it is a "better" 0.5%. A recent paper submitted for peer review (but not yet approved) estimates it at about 1.4% (https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-17453/v1). All of these figures are alarming. The death rate from flu is normally around 0.1%, so even if the South Korea figures are closer to correct, the best case seems to be that coronavirus is 5 times deadlier than an average flu.

It does not "just" kill older people. It kills older people at a higher rate than other people, but it kills all people at about 5 to 20 times the rate that most flus kill people of those ages. The BBC article explores deaths from a study in Wuhan, and "only" 8 people from 4500 cases under 30 died, but that is a horrific rate still for people so young https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

And it doesn't just kill. Sure, 8 of 10 people that are symptomatic are mild cases (they don't "feel" mild by some of the stories from individuals, but that is not evidence of danger and in the end, we care about the long term effects). But about 15% are hospitalised, needing about 6 weeks to recover, and about 5% have critical damage (and these figures also vary, I've seen 3% as the ICU rate in some areas, which is still appallingly high).

About as many people who are killed by coronavirus have critical organ failure but survive. But they have permanent damage and many may be looking at months of rehabilitation (which won't be easy while medical resources are stretched).