News Coronavirus and NRL

[wibble]

2) Coronavirus spreads fairly easily.


Just like with mortality, the exact rate of spread of coronavirus is unknown (and changes depending on the population it is in and what they are doing, of course). But it has an "Rnaught" or R0 number in our newly exposed communities of about 2 to 3. (https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/ar...estimate#Coronavirus-spreads-faster-than-SARS) This means every person that gets it will, on average, infect 2 to 3 other people.


An R0 of 2 to 3 means this virus spreads fairly well. It doesn't rate next to measles, an air borne virus that spreads very easily with an R0 of about 16, but is quite a bit better at spreading than an average flu, with an R0 of 1.3.

 

[wibble]

3) "And it absolutely will not stop, until you are dead". No, not really, I just threw that one in for my fans.

It will stop (hopefully, probably) as it infects more and more people, and we develop immunity. An individual develops immunity by being exposed to a disease, so it is unlikely to infect them again (we don't definitively know if this is the case with coronavirus, or if there are 2 strains that each need a different immune response, and we don't know how long any immunity may last). But herd immunity is developed when enough people in a population have developed individual immunity that the disease's R0 level drops below 1 (that is, so many people develop immunity that now on average, each infected person infects less than one other person, which means medical systems can cope and eventually the disease stops spreading).

With an R0 of about 2.2, coronavirus needs to infect about 60% of the population before we get herd immunity (again, the figures are estimates, but the maths behind the idea is straightforward, and these were the figures the UK government was talking about last week https://www.technologyreview.com/s/615375/what-is-herd-immunity-and-can-it-stop-the-coronavirus/)

So one way of stopping coronavirus is for 60% of us to get it.

In Australia, with about 25 million people, if we assume that 1.4% mortality from the most recent paper, we are looking at 25 000000 x 60% x 1.4% = 210 000 deaths. This isn't me being a panic merchant. This is the reasonable case estimates from scientists, if we only stop coronavirus by having it spread through the population.

To put that in to perspective, that is a little worse than the flu, which kills about 3500 Australians a year.

If we are overwhelmed and get death rates like Italy's terrible 7%, we are looking at potentially one million Australians killed by coronavirus, in the next few months. That is beyond horrific. That is indeed me panicking. That is something we have to absolutely avoid.

Thankfully, there is a way we can stop coronavirus, right now, before it kills 200 000 to one million of us. If we are willing to take a little short term pain (yes, a lot, but a little compared to a million deaths). We can shut down most non essential parts of society. It is really harsh, and will cause massive economic issues. And we will still have coronavirus affecting people and killing people. To "flatten the curve" we ideally need to take drastic social isolation measures early (I'm sure most have seen that flattening idea by now, but if not try https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-flatten-the-curve.html).

 

[wibble]

4) Why we need to act now.

I really stole that line from

This is a lengthy (even by my standards!) read and full of charts and numbers that may be difficult. And it is not entirely correct, but I think generally it makes the point well.

But that article, and the flatten the curve memes, and the talk from most epidemiologists, is that viruses grow exponentially (for a time) and can cause a peak rate of infection that is too high for medical resources to handle properly. You see this in Italy right now, just google almost anything to do with Italy and coronavirus and be shocked and horrified (and they were rated the 2nd best health system in the world by the WHO).

Exponential growth means there is not much point comparing our 876 cases now to say, the 3200 in the UK and saying they are 4 times worse than us. With cases doubling every 3 days, they are really just about one week ahead of us (but with a much larger population).

(A good explanation of exponential growth can be seen here)
876 cases today, doubling every 3.5 days, gives us 3200 by round 3 of the NRL, 12000 by round 4, 50 000 by round 5, 200 000 by round 6 etc (assuming we have a round 6, which I doubt). That won't happen of course, because long before we get to 200 000 cases in a month's time, we will have heavily increased our social isolation measures to bring down the R0 of the outbreak.

But delaying in taking action really fuels exponential growth. There is not much difference between the 876 cases we have today and the 3200 we could have next week. Our hospitals can cope with both numbers. But if the doubling rate continues, and only slows down due to drastic social isolation measures we take in a few weeks time, the difference between it slowing down by Round 5 and by Round 6 is 150 000 cases. From a one week delay.

And exponential growth, if it causes a spike in cases in a week (say, from 12000 which a system can handle, to 50 000 that it can not), can mean the mortality rate goes through the roof. And that will affect all of our medical system. So mortality from all other causes will also increase, as our medical resources are overstretched and people can’t get the best treatment for anything, from car accidents to cancer. Also including our regular flu season which could overlap the coronavirus and cause “healthy” people to be very vulnerable to coronavirus (you know, all those people that say coronavirus won’t affect them because they are healthy. And they probably are, right up until a flu hits them. Also, please get the flu vaccine this year, just to stay extra safe).

No country in the world has launched into exponential growth and brought it under control, except China. And they did it through drastic shut down of their cities. Hopefully Italy will start flattening too now with their drastic action. But both countries paid a heavy price already in loss of life. With exponential growth they would have paid an even more outrageous cost with even a week's delay in their actions.

 

[wibble]

5) Our future.

I can't predict the future, despite being the "internet expert genius". But the problem with a big lockdown of a country (other than the obvious economic and social problems) is that no one has yet figured out how to escape such a lockdown. If people just start mixing again, the coronavirus will just flare up again and start taking off exponentially.

The sobering model presented to the UK government that convinced them to lock down much more despite only being at 3200 cases (including their schools, when they too said that wouldn’t happen), suggests that we may have tight social distancing restrictions for the next 18 months or more

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

To be fair, at this point we don’t actually know if Italy will flatten the curve, or if China managed to (or if they are just lying to us again). We don’t know if people can develop immunity or not, if children can transmit the disease as easily as others, if there are a lot of asymptomatic people with coronavirus, or if there are two strains that act differently.

It may be that we will get to that awful 7% mortality and overwhelmed medical systems and not develop herd immunity, despite a big lockdown also costing billions of dollars and millions of jobs (see, I can easily up the fear spreading ante…don’t even start me on if the virus becomes seasonal and gets worse from previous immune reactions, which has been speculated).

It may be that most people are asymptomatic and really the virus is already everywhere and only a few are badly affected and very soon life will go on normally, but I really doubt it. And I don’t think we should pretend this is likely in case we are wrong and then face the possibility of those million deaths.

But despite accusations to the contrary, I would like to shoot for an optimistic future. I hope we can develop a vaccine that allows us to develop immunity before coronavirus tears through 60% of us. To slow it down and give us time to develop a vaccine, we may have to go through a few months of relatively extreme social isolation. This will be devastating for many and will cost billions of dollars.

It may even wreck the NRL.

But hopefully we will keep loss of life to a minimum. And after a few months we will get vaccinated and rebuilding our economy can go on, with most of us still alive and kicking.

My grandfather is still alive. He fought in World War 2 for us. Lost most of his hearing. Spent years as a POW. Pulled dead mates out of the water, and lost mates in the camps. Came back and continued to contribute to society as both a great mechanical engineer and loving father.

Every year, even at his ripe old age, he marches in the Anzac parades, proudly displaying his medals. He is about the only one left from his era who can walk. Sadly, he won’t march this year.

But I’m really, really hoping that is because we are all locked down and doing our best to protect him. Not because we couldn’t make a few economic and social sacrifices to protect him. After all the sacrifices he and his generation made for us, at a time even worse than now, it is the least we can do.

 

[jim_57]

What do we do in communities where this is not feasible?

I won't pretend to have all the answers but where it is an option there should be systems being put in place to make it a possibility.

 

[unforgiven]

I won't pretend to have all the answers but where it is an option there should be systems being put in place to make it a possibility.

So back to education for the rich and the poor miss out?

 

[jim_57]

So back to education for the rich and the poor miss out?

Dramatic. I was just suggesting it should be a backup plan, obviously different plans should be in place for those who don't have access to technology where possible.

Making plans for these type of situations is better than just hoping they won't happen.

 

[Diesel]

To all those naysayers in the media saying the NRL shouldn’t go ahead, these games have been a welcome distraction to everything going around

 

[Diesel]

Can anyone copy this? It’s behind a paywall. Not sure if it’s send kick bait or Broncos not willing to help

https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/

link not working. Was in Courier Mail saying Broncos deny Warriors request for a player

 

[unforgiven]

Dramatic. I was just suggesting it should be a backup plan, obviously different plans should be in place for those who don't have access to technology where possible.

Making plans for these type of situations is better than just hoping they won't happen.

Not dramatic at all, lets give access to teachers to people who can afford the tech required, everyone else we will send home worksheets. I'm telling that is the backup plan you are promoting! You understand the impact that will have on lower socio economic communities?

 

[Perth Red]

Uk has shut the pubs, first time since the English civil war.Corona has managed to do something even the nazis couldnt!

 

[jim_57]

Not dramatic at all, lets give access to teachers to people who can afford the tech required, everyone else we will send home worksheets. I'm telling that is the backup plan you are promoting! You understand the impact that will have on lower socio economic communities?

I hate to break this to you but a lot of people are going to be impacted by this. Not listening to any potential solutions and just screaming injustice won't be helpful either.

Even in lower income communities how many wouldn't have access to a computer, phone or internet? Breaking down even more what about a DVD or CD player for video or audio class recordings? At the end of the day even if all of the above fail sending home worksheets is better than nothing.

Of course that doesn't even take in to account the option of keeping the schools open at far reduced capacity for those who would struggle to have access to lessons online.

These are just some basic back up plans, I'm sure people in the field could come up with better ones than me just spitballing on a League forum. I just hope there is some sort of planning along those lines being invested in by the Government & Education systems.

 

[unforgiven]

I hate to break this to you but a lot of people are going to be impacted by this. Not listening to any potential solutions and just screaming injustice won't be helpful either.

Even in lower income communities how many wouldn't have access to a computer, phone or internet? Breaking down even more what about a DVD or CD player for video or audio class recordings? At the end of the day even if all of the above fail sending home worksheets is better than nothing.

Of course that doesn't even take in to account the option of keeping the schools open at far reduced capacity for those who would struggle to have access to lessons online.

These are just some basic back up plans, I'm sure people in the field could come up with better ones than me just spitballing on a League forum. I just hope there is some sort of planning along those lines being invested in by the Government & Education systems.

Of course there is mate, but until the health advice changes then the best option is keeping schools open. That is what our Chief Medical Officers are all promoting!

 

[GongPanther]

5) Our future.

I can't predict the future, despite being the "internet expert genius". But the problem with a big lockdown of a country (other than the obvious economic and social problems) is that no one has yet figured out how to escape such a lockdown. If people just start mixing again, the coronavirus will just flare up again and start taking off exponentially.

The sobering model presented to the UK government that convinced them to lock down much more despite only being at 3200 cases (including their schools, when they too said that wouldn’t happen), suggests that we may have tight social distancing restrictions for the next 18 months or more

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

To be fair, at this point we don’t actually know if Italy will flatten the curve, or if China managed to (or if they are just lying to us again). We don’t know if people can develop immunity or not, if children can transmit the disease as easily as others, if there are a lot of asymptomatic people with coronavirus, or if there are two strains that act differently.

It may be that we will get to that awful 7% mortality and overwhelmed medical systems and not develop herd immunity, despite a big lockdown also costing billions of dollars and millions of jobs (see, I can easily up the fear spreading ante…don’t even start me on if the virus becomes seasonal and gets worse from previous immune reactions, which has been speculated).

It may be that most people are asymptomatic and really the virus is already everywhere and only a few are badly affected and very soon life will go on normally, but I really doubt it. And I don’t think we should pretend this is likely in case we are wrong and then face the possibility of those million deaths.

But despite accusations to the contrary, I would like to shoot for an optimistic future. I hope we can develop a vaccine that allows us to develop immunity before coronavirus tears through 60% of us. To slow it down and give us time to develop a vaccine, we may have to go through a few months of relatively extreme social isolation. This will be devastating for many and will cost billions of dollars.

It may even wreck the NRL.

But hopefully we will keep loss of life to a minimum. And after a few months we will get vaccinated and rebuilding our economy can go on, with most of us still alive and kicking.

My grandfather is still alive. He fought in World War 2 for us. Lost most of his hearing. Spent years as a POW. Pulled dead mates out of the water, and lost mates in the camps. Came back and continued to contribute to society as both a great mechanical engineer and loving father.

Every year, even at his ripe old age, he marches in the Anzac parades, proudly displaying his medals. He is about the only one left from his era who can walk. Sadly, he won’t march this year.

But I’m really, really hoping that is because we are all locked down and doing our best to protect him. Not because we couldn’t make a few economic and social sacrifices to protect him. After all the sacrifices he and his generation made for us, at a time even worse than now, it is the least we can do.

Give this interesting and sobering link a gander. It is lengthy, but I couldn't help but watch it through.

The one expert on the vid says that conservatively, 1.8 million people in the U.S. will end up dying. And that figure could and most probably will be much higher. But a lot of common sense talked about in this vid.

 

[wibble]

Of course there is mate, but until the health advice changes then the best option is keeping schools open. That is what our Chief Medical Officers are all promoting!

If you aren't planning on a close now your head is in the sand. We are still doubling every 3 days, over 1000 cases now. How long is that sustainable for?

I like the Victoria model of closing for pupil free days to plan, around their holidays. But the holidays will be too late in NSW. Two weeks more of doubling is dire.

Trouble is, even if we close schools and most businesses by next week (which I predict we will), with about a 10 day lead up we probably have about an 8 fold increase from the time of closure, not counting increases from the little social movement still allowed.

That is looking like...4000 cases by the end of the week, forced shut down, and 32 000 cases at least, a week or two later (plus many more not confirmed).

If the Chief Medical Officer actually has a plan, or some model that suggests we are not going the way of Europe, he needs to be showing the rest of us as soon as possible. Because we are looking pretty bad about now.

 

[TheVelourFog]

how long are the Warriors going to want to stay here getting spanked each week

 

[some11]

To all those naysayers in the media saying the NRL shouldn’t go ahead, these games have been a welcome distraction to everything going around

They are, but it's only a matter of time before one of the 300 odd players going around gets it.

 

[jim_57]

Of course there is mate, but until the health advice changes then the best option is keeping schools open. That is what our Chief Medical Officers are all promoting!

Whether people agree that is the best course of action or not, I understand that is the official stance. I just really hope there are contingencies in place when closures start to come, whether that be government driven or School's taking their own initiative.

Like I've always said I don't think locking everything down is sustainable any more than a few months. Any steps we can take to keep the country moving will help even if it does come to complete lockdowns.

My job for example has the back up idea of splitting our 70 operating staff in to 35 groups of 2 if it comes to that, working from home isn't an option outside of some office staff. That would apply to every depot in Australia and thousands of staff. Not every workplace has that luxury but it'd be nice to think everywhere is thinking of their back up options and the Government is working hard behind the scenes for these scenarios.

 

[some11]

Can anyone copy this? It’s behind a paywall. Not sure if it’s send kick bait or Broncos not willing to help

https://www.couriermail.com.au/subscribe/news/1/

link not working. Was in Courier Mail saying Broncos deny Warriors request for a player

18 year old Tesi Niu, fullback.

With the injuries to the broncos he's going debut very soon. Bird out for the season, Isaako's father has a terminal illness in NZ and could leave for home any week now.

He is a development player but they can apply for an exemption like Bullemore this week.

 

[Spot On]

To all those naysayers in the media saying the NRL shouldn’t go ahead, these games have been a welcome distraction to everything going around

Only an absolute deadshit would say that.

Up up VLandys for having the LEADERSHIP to at least give us a second round of footy and have the AFL fumble and bumble their way to follow suit for once.

That alone has been worth it.