20k is achievable, just not in 5 years
its gonna have to take some serious growth from the potential powerhouse Sydney teams.
Parramatta, the Bulldogs, and Souths all have the potential to be 25-30k average teams.
The Tigers and Dragons both have the potential to be 20k teams.
There are a tonne of non-active fans from all of those clubs, you only have to see how many turn out to these clubs big games.
The Warriors are also worth a mention as they are severely under leveraged. They could do anything if given the time.
Crowds have been steadily rising (believe it or not) over the past 20 years.
People have been confused due to the average's constant punctuation
by the super league (1997) and the rise of the tigers (2005-6) and Eels (2009-10) which brought along considerable bandwagons.
Last year saw only 2 big Sydney teams in the top 8 and no Broncos, and this was reflected in the average.
As long as the big Sydney teams + brisbane stay in contention there's no reason why they can't crack 16500.
The Only way I can see a 20k average happening is if there is considerable growth of the league in the next few years and than an ideal year with the top 8 being the biggest clubs and the finals race really close.
And even then they'd need probably half a dozen ANZ 50k matches