Crowd Watch 2014 part 3

[Cumberland Throw]

Newcastle crowd was 10k more than a usual newc v GC game

You can never bag Newcastle for crowds

Population is like 400k. A 20k crowd is 5% of population

5% of Sydney is like 250,000

 

[SLRBRONCOS]

Newcastle crowd was 10k more than a usual newc v GC game

You can never bag Newcastle for crowds

Population is like 400k. A 20k crowd is 5% of population

5% of Sydney is like 250,000

Cowboys A++++

 

[Cumberland Throw]

Yeah cowboys punch well above weight too

 

[Usain Bolt]

#RiseForAlex (unless it's too cold or a chance of rain)

 

[pHyR3]

drags vs tigers should pull a good crowd if dragons stay competitive or even win tomorrow night.

25k+

almost no tigers there today considering it was our home game. pretty disappointing but getting thrashed 2 weeks in a row probably didnt help.

 

[supercharger]

Newcastle crowd was 10k more than a usual newc v GC game

You can never bag Newcastle for crowds

Population is like 400k. A 20k crowd is 5% of population

5% of Sydney is like 250,000

Don't they draw fans from New England and the Hunter though?

 

[Billythekid]

22,225 for Wests-Dogs. Somewhat underwhelming.

26, 401 at Newy. Which is decent IMO.

Everyone was talking about 30k+ for both.

Only 1 outstanding crowd (Brisbane) this weekend when we were expecting as many as 3.

Don't see how the Brisbane crowd is outstanding and the Newcastle one is decent. The warriors actually bring a decent amount of away support and whilst i won't claim to know the history of crowds between the 2 clubs i don't think 37K is all that high for that match.

Newcastle getting 26K+ against the titans is an incredible effort. This is despite the Tinkler BS, losing Bennett, fighting for the spoon and the game being played on a cold rainy day against the team with the least away support in the comp.

If the weather was good we could have been looking at more like 30K or more but that doesn't diminish how impressive 26K people is.

The dogs/tigers crowd is very disappointing. I know the tigers are down on form and have a few injuries but you've got to expect a little more than that.

Don't they draw fans from New England and the Hunter though?

I know people who travel down from Scone and Muswellbrook but that doesn't had a huge amount to the population, Newcastle still does pretty well. Regardless you don't need to use any weird calculations like that to make the crowd look good. Has anyone outside of the broncos ever drawn a crowd that big against the titans? Most teams barely hit 10K when facing them.

 

[BunniesMan]

A round of 145,000 puts the aggregate about 57,000 greater than last year after 136 games or about 420 more per game. If that continues the year will come in about 3rd. An average of just under 17k is required for the record aggregate - possible I guess.

There was an extreme spike late in 2013 which saved us from a worse number. Unlikely to have that sort of spike this year. Especially with a lot of marquee games out of the way already. At this stage I'll just be happy for it to get to where we were in 2013.

 

[cleary89]

Don't they draw fans from New England and the Hunter though?

I went to uni on the cc and there were heaps of knights supporters there

 

[BuffaloRules]

There was an extreme spike late in 2013 which saved us from a worse number. Unlikely to have that sort of spike this year. Especially with a lot of marquee games out of the way already. At this stage I'll just be happy for it to get to where we were in 2013.

Geez you are a negative twat.

The comp is much tighter this year with 13 teams still some hope, and a much tighter race for positions within the Top 8 compared to last year where the Top 4 was pretty much set in stone at this stage.

 

[pHyR3]

There was an extreme spike late in 2013 which saved us from a worse number. Unlikely to have that sort of spike this year. Especially with a lot of marquee games out of the way already. At this stage I'll just be happy for it to get to where we were in 2013.

what spike in 2013?? if anything there was a massive drop off after a great start pre-origin.

averages from round 19 onwards went:

11.4k, 17.7k, 13k, 14.7k, 15.8k, 14.8k, 16.4k, 21.4k. Giving a 15.65k avg for those rounds.

in 2012 the same rounds averaged 16.65k.

 

[Twatface Magee]

drags vs tigers should pull a good crowd if dragons stay competitive or even win tomorrow night.

25k+

almost no tigers there today considering it was our home game. pretty disappointing but getting thrashed 2 weeks in a row probably didnt help.

Im guessing you werent at the game. Tigers outnumbered bulldogs 3:1
And given the way anz works with reciprical access it really wasnt a 'home' game.

 

[oldmancraigy]

Newcastle crowd was 10k more than a usual newc v GC game

You can never bag Newcastle for crowds

Population is like 400k. A 20k crowd is 5% of population

5% of Sydney is like 250,000

Newcastle population 546k.
Sydney population 4.576mill (includes central coast).
9 teams into Sydney area = average 508k people to draw from each (including central coast).

Newcastle average crowd (2014) = 17151. Adjust to 508/546 = comparative crowd of 15,957 (relative to 'fair' areas and Sydney clubs.)

List of average 2014 crowds for Sydney clubs, showing Newcastle's position:

Souths 21,095
Parramatta 18,963
St Geo/Illa 17,717
Canterbury 16,636
Newcastle 15,957
Wests 13,458
Cronulla 12,879
Roosters 12,778
Penrith 12,363
Manly 11,983

So, Newcastle are basically a 'slightly above average' Sydney club (if we are using the argument of 'relative population'). None of those Sydney clubs have the advantage of a 'boutique' 35k suburban ground either.

By the way, I think the whole thing is a poor argument!

 

[oldmancraigy]

Touch of positivity here:
This round is already the 3rd biggest round of the year (unless Saints add an extra 10k seats to Win Jubilee it will remain the 3rd biggest round). It has increased the 'year average' past 2009 levels now, making it the 5th biggest crowd year in NRL history.

A crowd of just 10k tonight will see the year average sit at 16,139 per game.
An average crowd on the 'run home' of 16,597 will see this year advance again to become the 4th biggest crowd year in NRL history.

Games to look out for (home team first)
Round 20
Brisbane v Melbourne
Tigers v Dragons (ANZ)
New Zld v Manly

Round 21
Tough round - needs 2x20k crowds
Roosters v Dragons
Cowboys v Titans [both look like being back in top 8 contention]

Round 22
Souths v Manly (SCG)
Brisbane v Dogs

Round 23
Eels v Dogs (ANZ - if Eels win 2 of their previous 3, could be big)
Tigers v Roosters (ANZ)

Round 24
Brisbane v Newcastle (I think this will be a must win for Broncs)
Dogs v Tigers

Round 25
Dogs v Rabbitohs (ANZ)
Broncos v Dragons

Round 26
Melbourne v Brisbane
Roosters v Souths (could be anything from a minor premiership battle, to a fight for top 4)
Newcastle v St Geo/Illa (old boys)


If the games I have highlighted there average 25k (some will get 35k, others 18-20k - it's quite likely), then the other games need just an average of 13.2k to bring the year over the 'hump' as 4th biggest.

 

[juro]

Games to look out for (home team first)
Round 23
Tigers v Roosters (ANZ)

This game was moved to Leichhardt.

 

[Billythekid]

Newcastle population 546k.
Sydney population 4.576mill (includes central coast).
9 teams into Sydney area = average 508k people to draw from each (including central coast).

Newcastle average crowd (2014) = 17151. Adjust to 508/546 = comparative crowd of 15,957 (relative to 'fair' areas and Sydney clubs.)

List of average 2014 crowds for Sydney clubs, showing Newcastle's position:

Souths 21,095
Parramatta 18,963
St Geo/Illa 17,717
Canterbury 16,636
Newcastle 15,957
Wests 13,458
Cronulla 12,879
Roosters 12,778
Penrith 12,363
Manly 11,983

So, Newcastle are basically a 'slightly above average' Sydney club (if we are using the argument of 'relative population'). None of those Sydney clubs have the advantage of a 'boutique' 35k suburban ground either.

By the way, I think the whole thing is a poor argument!

Slightly above average Sydney club despite all the sh*t and terrible form they have went through this year. I'd say that is a pretty decent effort. The knights also don't have the advantage of having their crowds boosted by huge drawing away games like tigers/souths.

 

[Timmah]

Newcastle running dead last with Cronulla for parts of the year - 17k is outstanding in those circumstances. Now Bennett leaving, form still a concern - I'd cut them some slack.

Penrith, Manly, Roosters on the other hand...

 

[Yosemite Sam]

There was an extreme spike late in 2013 which saved us from a worse number. Unlikely to have that sort of spike this year. Especially with a lot of marquee games out of the way already. At this stage I'll just be happy for it to get to where we were in 2013.

What are you on about? There was absolutely NO spike in crowds at all last year. In fact it was all downhill after origin with the 60K in round 26 being the only outlier.

There is no chance we will fall below last years numbers. We are more of a chance at record crowds than we are of falling below last season.

 

[oldmancraigy]

Slightly above average Sydney club despite all the sh*t and terrible form they have went through this year. I'd say that is a pretty decent effort. The knights also don't have the advantage of having their crowds boosted by huge drawing away games like tigers/souths.

I'm not knocking them - just showing how stupid the 'average population vs average crowd' stat is.

And also felt like doing some maths....

 

[oldmancraigy]

This game was moved to Leichhardt.

Well that won't be one of the 'big ones' then will it!

I guess if Tiges are in contention it could get 18-20k?