Did Jarrod Croker choke ?

[RHCP]

That's because the rest of us were unsure if a post containing five syllable words would be able to be understood by you.

Although when I think about it, I guess there was a 50/50 chance you would comprehend it.

 

[Raiders_Premiers]

Nothing at all....

The silence is deafening

 

[Charlie124]

mate, just read the hundreds of explainations people have dumbed down to a year 3 level to help you understand.

 

[Slackboy72]

You should specify that they can't be plastic. I doubt Raiders_Premiers is allowed to use glass or ceramic kitchenware.

That's how they roll in Queanbeyan.

 

[Raiders_Premiers]

mate, just read the hundreds of explainations people have dumbed down to a year 3 level to help you understand.

Year 3 level eh? :lol:

No one has given an explanation yet despite your failed attempts. I believe the probability of him kicking the goals lies with the number of successful and unsuccessful attempts he has had at various metres/and or angles. Not one person has actually attempted to actually calculate the actual probability though

Wind etc physical variables are not considered. Happy to be proved wrong though.

But no keep on trying to sound witty and make yourself feel good with petty insults, that's all you've got really

 

[Firey_Dragon]

Year 3 level eh? :lol:

No one has given an explanation yet despite your failed attempts. I believe the probability of him kicking the goals lies with the number of successful and unsuccessful attempts he has had at various metres/and or angles. Not one person has actually attempted to actually calculate the actual probability though

Wind etc physical variables are not considered. Happy to be proved wrong though.

But no keep on trying to sound witty and make yourself feel good with petty insults, that's all you've got really

A kicker who has an 80% conversion rate has a sh*tload better chance than 50% when kicking from 30m out in front of the goal. Is that straight forward enough for you?

 

[RHCP]

There are only two possible outcomes if I attempt to knock out Floyd Mayweather; I do or I do not.

Is the probability still 50/50?

 

[watatank]

Year 3 level eh? :lol:

No one has given an explanation yet despite your failed attempts. I believe the probability of him kicking the goals lies with the number of successful and unsuccessful attempts he has had at various metres/and or angles. Not one person has actually attempted to actually calculate the actual probability though

Wind etc physical variables are not considered. Happy to be proved wrong though.

But no keep on trying to sound witty and make yourself feel good with petty insults, that's all you've got really

That's the probability of kicking a goal from any position. If you're trying to calculate the probability of kicking a goal from a particular position (say right in front) it would be the success rate of all kicks from right in front, which would be much higher than the overall success rate.

 

[dontbro]

Apparently you don't need skill to be a goalkicker with the logic of some.

Over the long run, you would expect there to be 50 per cent goals and 50 per cent misses of all goal attempts ever taken in the NRL. Are we really to believe our NRL heroes can defy the laws of statistics and probability? Or perhaps when you think about things logically, taking a goalkick is not the same as flipping a coin.

I know I'm new to this forum but i read it regularly and I must say, only this forum can turn a fact that cannot be argued, (like, say, year 8 maths probabilities) and turn into into a passionate and illogical discussion.

 

[Raiders_Premiers]

A kicker who has an 80% conversion rate has a sh*tload better chance than 50% when kicking from 30m out in front of the goal. Is that straight forward enough for you?

So what if he's kicking at 80% but only at let's say 55% from 30 metres out/and or 50% at that angle from the left side of the field

Your logic is flawed, it's not as simple as you think it is

 

[Charlie124]

Hasnt it struck you as a little strange that only one person on this forum seems to think you're right, and its Madunit? Shouldnt the alarm bells be ringing for you by now?

 

[Firey_Dragon]

So what if he's kicking at 80% but only at let's say 55% from 30 metres out/and or 50% at that angle from the left side of the field

Your logic is flawed, it's not as simple as you think it is

No, your logic is flawed. A kicker kicks it FURTHER than he did from the sidelines at a far tighter angle, yet he has a kick percentage of ~80%. In fact from the average kick from the sideline 22m out to the black dot, it's 40.4m

I am not privy to the stats of whether he's kicked goals from that spot or not. The distance and angle are no problem in comparison to kicks he slots regularly (far more than 50%).

You're clutching at straws, the pressure got to him, get over it and move on.

 

[Dragon]

So if Hazem El Masri lined up a kick from 200 meteres out, it still has a 50% chance of going through...

Thats some good logic

 

[Charlie124]

So if Hazem El Masri lined up a kick from 200 meteres out, it still has a 50% chance of going through...

Thats some good logic

Don't be witty, Dragon. Explain it clearer.

 

[Apey]

So what if he's kicking at 80% but only at let's say 55% from 30 metres out/and or 50% at that angle from the left side of the field

Your logic is flawed, it's not as simple as you think it is

then ignoring randomness the probability of kicking it is 27.5%

 

[Dragon]

so, just to re-cap

Every goal kick has a 50% chance of being successful

He is right

it either misses or it doesn't.

Two outcomes doesn't imply each have an equal chance of occurring.

It does according to my calculator ;-)

There's a 50/50 chance that Pete Cash is in fact John Nash Jnr.

gee some people are simple.

If there are two outcomes, then, probability wise, they are both as likely as each other. Moreso when the area of success is smaller.

Nothing at all....

The silence is deafening

Carry on

 

[Raiders_Premiers]

No, your logic is flawed. A kicker kicks it FURTHER than he did from the sidelines at a far tighter angle, yet he has a kick percentage of ~80%. In fact from the average kick from the sideline 22m out to the black dot, it's 40.4m

I am not privy to the stats of whether he's kicked goals from that spot or not. The distance and angle are no problem in comparison to kicks he slots regularly (far more than 50%).

You're clutching at straws, the pressure got to him, get over it and move on.

You still don't get it. You need to know how many successful/unsuccessful attempt he's had at that range/angle. There is no way in hell Croker averages 80% from the left side of the field

How do you know where he's been kicking it from? For all we know a kicker could kick every single ball from in front. In Croker's situation he actually kicks most conversions from the right side of the field (favoured for a left footer) where Harrison-Thompson-Mogg-Vidot have been.

You still haven't considered the probability of an average joe who has never kicked a goal in his life, to make the conversion

I don't think you quite get the math behind it (nor does anyone really), so I'll leave it at that. I haven't argued whether or not he has choked and frankly I don't care, I'm just interested in the stats

 

[Walt Flanigan]

3 is the answer...........the answer is 3.

 

[Slackboy72]

 

[Firey_Dragon]

You still don't get it. You need to know how many successful/unsuccessful attempt he's had at that range/angle. There is no way in hell Croker averages 80% from the left side of the field

How do you know where he's been kicking it from? For all we know a kicker could kick every single ball from in front. In Croker's situation he actually kicks most conversions from the right side of the field (favoured for a left footer) where Harrison-Thompson-Mogg-Vidot have been.

You still haven't considered the probability of an average joe who has never kicked a goal in his life, to make the conversion

I don't think you quite get the math behind it (nor does anyone really), so I'll leave it at that. I haven't argued whether or not he has choked and frankly I don't care, I'm just interested in the stats

Oh no, I get it all. I just think it's beyond ridiculous that anyone could argue a first grade goalkicker would have a conversion rate even remotely close to 50% from that range. Without pressure a kicker of Croker's caliber would slot it at least 9 times out of 10.