Eels Salary Cap MK II

[Johnny88]

I will guess 8 points. Watch those ratings and crowd figures drop.

 

[Avenger]

Anyone else want to throw numbers around? FFS you lot.

It's somewhere between 0 and 100. You watch I bet I'm right.

F**cken merkins, the lot of you. Forget what you're "Hearing" your so called sources are obviously wrong, or don't actually know anything.

Before you get all butthurt about me calling you out, chill. I understand that it's what you heard, and you're just helping out trying to keep us informed, but it look like no information is credible right now.

Can we please have a moratorium on people throwing rumors around (or what they "hear" from their secret squirrels) unless you have the sack to name the person that told you, what their role is, and where they heard it from (i.e. I want you to trace the source back to Greenberg himself).

Unless you can provide that supporting information (which you can't/won't, and I don't blame you) SHUT THE F**K UP!

I'm sorry but I'm sick of it.

Sorry Ash. Don't know why there is an about face.

 

[hineyrulz]

4 points is bad enough and not excusable, let alone 8-10 which is an absolute disaster.

But i'm sure Bart will tell us all it's no big deal and we are all blowing it out of proportion just to have a god at the board.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

4 points is bad enough and not excusable, let alone 8-10 which is an absolute disaster.

But i'm sure Bart will tell us all it's no big deal and we are all blowing it out of proportion just to have a god at the board.

Mate......we don't even know what (if anything) we've been found to have done. So I don't know how we can judge that 4 points would be inexcusable. If, for example, the Mossop story is true, then you'd expect to lose some points for that. I'm waiting to see what the decisions is, and what the apparent evidence is behind that decision. If we lose more than 4 points, we can appeal through the NRL. If we get no relief that way, and we have an arguable case, we go to the Supreme Court.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

SHARKS 1.25 TO MAKE TOP 4

PARRA 9-1

CANBERRA 3.50

What are you stupid?

Here's another interpretation for you mate.

How about the bookies (and the market as a whole) are factoring in the probability (rather than certainty) of fine of 4 or more points? So for instance, if they think there's a 50% chance that we lose all our points, that alone would double our odds (relative to a 0% probability of losing points) for a) the premiership, b) the 8, c) the top 4.

Doesn't mean there isn't a leak, but the change in odds is not hard evidence of a leak.

 

[Gronk]

As a glasss half full kinda guy, I'm hoping that the scaremongers got to Avenger's source in a last ditch Raaaaay type effort before the AGM, hoping for heads to roll.

 

[Gronk]

Is it inconceivable that Sportsbet decided to tweek the odds just in case we lose massive points? Then if we survive the storm they'll revert to a more realistic odds ?

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Is it inconceivable that Sportsbet decided to tweek the odds just in case we lose massive points? Then if we survive the storm they'll revert to a more realistic odds ?

It will be the weight of money flowing to them that will have induced them to tweak the odds, but yes it is quite possible. The worry would be if some of that money was 'informed'.....but that is not the betting agency's fault.

 

[IFR33K]

I'm going to say it's 4 points, with it being potentially 0 if board members walk.

Anything more then 4, could result in being a court matter. We were threatened with four
Last year, so anything more could be disastrous. The NRL needs the eels doing well for western Sydney and ratings purposes.

 

[Gronk]

It will be the weight of money flowing to them that will have induced them to tweak the odds, but yes it is quite possible. The worry would be if some of that money was 'informed'.....but that is not the betting agency's fault.

The "weight of money" would mean that bets to make the 8 have waned. Seeing that wooden spoon betting does not exist anymore.

Why would Joe Public be betting on us making the 8 a week before the NRL pull out their wacker ? He wouldn't, hence why odds have blown out.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

Why would Joe Public be betting on us making the 8 a week before the NRL pull out their wacker ? He wouldn't, hence why odds have blown out.

Yes. but there are two plausible scenarios here. 1) As per my message above, if the market believes that there's (say) a 50% chance of a significant points penalty against us that will affect all the prices for us and for the other teams. 2) as per 1) except some people might have better info as to the penalty.

It's not just as simple as people waiting for next week's decision (that would affect betting volume on all teams to some extent.....and would not necessarily inspire a bookie to change their odds this far out), because our probability of making the 8 (4, winning) affect the probabilities of other teams doing the same. For whatever reason, the movement in prices reflects a change in the market's perception of our chance of making the 8 (4, winning).

How much of that is due to the Foran situation is also unclear.

 

[Barry O'Speedwagon]

I'm going to say it's 4 points, with it being potentially 0 if board members walk.

Anything more then 4, could result in being a court matter. We were threatened with four
Last year, so anything more could be disastrous. The NRL needs the eels doing well for western Sydney and ratings purposes.

Any penalty could actually go to court if we had a case. The 4 point thing is the threshold above which we can appeal through the NRL's own appeals channel.

I got no idea as far as the likely penalty goes.

 

[hineyrulz]

Any more then 4 is a disgrace for a cap compliant team, Warriors only lost 4 and they were 500k over when the cap was about half of what it is now.

 

[Gronk]

Yes. but there are two plausible scenarios here. 1) As per my message above, if the market believes that there's (say) a 50% chance of a significant points penalty against us that will affect all the prices for us and for the other teams. 2) as per 1) except some people might have better info as to the penalty.

It's not just as simple as people waiting for next week's decision (that would affect betting volume on all teams to some extent.....and would not necessarily inspire a bookie to change their odds this far out), because our probability of making the 8 (4, winning) affect the probabilities of other teams doing the same. For whatever reason, the movement in prices reflects a change in the market's perception of our chance of making the 8 (4, winning).

How much of that is due to the Foran situation is also unclear.

Especially when some outlets like the Ch9 morning show were questioning his future in the game. Unsubstantiated dribble.

 

[Oscarman]

The UBET top 4 and top 8 markets should be back up this morning after reassessment. Round 10 markets also have every game except ours and the Dogs.

 

[hindy111]

If we are a 50% chance barrt if losing points how do you explain the sharks 1.25 to finish top 4 and parra 9-1.
Prior to this week bith teams where even to win comp.Heck they scored less tries to penrith who lost there half and centre for most the game and played at home.
But its a 36-1 swing. If it was 50% you would see idds of about 1.80 Max.
They would not take the risk on Foran moving the market that much. Offer silly odds just incase Foran isnt better? Wtf woul they bother risk losing huge dollars

 

[SDM]

If Hindy11! And Basil brush are not a Phantom/Bartman type situation, I will work a double shit at Stagger Eels Pizza n' Tug joint.

 

[The EELiminator]

I will work a double shit at Stagger Eels Pizza n' Tug joint.

i dunno mate sounds like a turd of a place to me

 

[Delboy]

Couple of things

DA was appointed to ensure that the cap was in order, and has been known to tell people it's all in order

Schubert was then appointed to assist in ensuring there were no problems

Between them I understand that they receive between $450k/$500k pa, that's certainly a shed load more than the board in total, how about they get asked what the fc*k is going on and what they are doing

Seeing the team in the sheds after the game, my wife said it's heartbreaking to penalise them, also radio news made the point that the Dogs had 4 tries disallowed, FMD Raaaay even has a say in how news is broadcast

To add to this rant, Raaay and Nathan will be pleased, they got what they wanted, never been so disappointed in someone from the club, that on top of his disdain for Hayne just about does it for me

 

[The EELiminator]

the NRL have assured that any decision on a penalty would be made purely on evidence and not media speculation

that's all i want if we have done the crime we will do the time but let the nrl decide our fate based on evidence alone not the media spinning the wheel of punishment