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http://www.theaustralian.com.au/new...lose-competition/story-e6frg7mf-1226110468615
Expansion could upset close competition
Brent Read
From: The Australian
August 08, 2011 12:00AM
AS the AFL works itself into a lather over the lopsided nature of its competition, statistics have emerged that suggest the NRL has never been closer to achieving the lofty goal of parity across its clubs.
Heading into last weekend, the average winning margin in the NRL was 13 points. That is the lowest figure since the NRL's inception in 1998 and adds gravitas to claims that the salary cap has levelled the playing field.
Given recent events in the AFL, it also serves as a warning to the NRL as it considers expanding the competition. A slew of one-sided AFL games this season prompted premiership-winning Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse to suggest at the weekend that a stream of blow-outs was the AFL's most serious issue.
The situation has been exacerbated by the thinning of talent created by the introduction of the Gold Coast this season. And AFL officials concede it is likely to continue next year when Greater Western Sydney kicks off.
The NRL could do worse than to look and learn, given the code is weighing up the prospects of adding teams in coming years.
While the seven bidding consortiums want entry in 2013, chief executive David Gallop has suggested a more realistic goal is 2014 or 2015. The final decision will be made by the independent commission, which will take over the running of the game from November 1. The most serious concern is that any new teams will dilute the talent pool, inevitably meaning the weaker clubs will be picked off.
"So many of our games are not decided until the last minute which is quite extraordinary for a competition like ours in world sport," Gallop said.
"It's a credit to the fitness of our players and the evenness of the competition. Certainly any consideration for adding teams would need to bear in mind the competitive balance of the competition."
In reference to the AFL giving concessions to expansion teams, which has allowed them to pick the eyes out of other sides, Gallop said: "When we added the Titans to the competition we were careful not to introduce concessions which would upset the competitive balance.
"Our philosophy thus far has been that if you come into the competition, you come in on the same terms as everyone else. But we certainly provide a level of support in other areas.
"I think you're buying a lot of problems if you start favouring some clubs over others in terms of the salary cap or the draft."
There are other considerations for the NRL beyond the even standard of the competition. The game is also fighting a war with the AFL in western Sydney and money needs to be channelled in that direction. Furthermore, many of the NRL's existing clubs are fighting to keep their heads above water.
"We have said for some time any new team would have to have a robust financial model and be bringing something to the table that everyone can benefit from," Gallop said. "Part of that is not upsetting the competitive balance of the competition."
The average winning margin in the NRL has been on a steady decline over the past four years. Since peaking at 17.3 points in 2002, it has consistently been below 15 points -- 2008 was the lone exception. Over the past two years, it has been below 14 points for the first time in NRL history. This year's dip comes despite the top eight being widely considered a foregone