Is Cleary a dud?

[mxlegend99]

No reason we shouldn't of matched last season. We lost depth but the extra experience of the top 13 should of accounted for it.

So James Maloney, Josh Mansour, Dean Whare etc. have an extra 20 odd games under his belt... that makes up for losing representative players?

An extra season doesn't magically make everyone better. Form is not a straight line that improves with every game. Especially with older players or guys returning from injury.

We didn't only lose experience. We lost talent.

Tyrone Peachey was a skilled versatile player with class and genuine game breaking ability.

Trent Merrin was a consistent workhorse who was not in his best form, but was far more reliable and consistent than RCG is or any of our reserve grade options are.

Corey Harawira-Naera was a very underrated line running second rower. He has nothing on Yeo and Kikau. But he was a great benchie to have who offered a little something in attack none of our current options do.

Christian Crichton was just awful. But probably has a 2019 Mansour covered. Atleast he has a crack at contesting a kick.

The bulk of our starting squad are older and more experienced to the point where it's absurd to think a few extra games improves them. The few guys we could expect to improve:

Edwards - recovering from an injury which is a huge setback
DWZ - Had a shortened pre-season and was on the wing for the opening month. Could go either way
Cleary - had a shortened pre-season but has shown a bit of promise so far. Im optimistic he improves a bit atleast.
Kikau - constant injuries. But also had such a great 2018 season its hard to improve on.
JFH - Has improved considerably IMO.
RCG - Seems his broken jaw came with a broken heart. Experience is irrelevant to desire which RCG doesnt seem to have now
Blake - young enough he can improve and evolve. But so far looks slightly worse.
Katoa - He hit his ceiling IMO.

I just dont understand how anyone could reasonably expect a few extra games makes the same players so much better they compensate for losing multiple representative players.

 

[franklin2323]

So James Maloney, Josh Mansour, Dean Whare etc. have an extra 20 odd games under his belt... that makes up for losing representative players?

An extra season doesn't magically make everyone better. Form is not a straight line that improves with every game. Especially with older players or guys returning from injury.

We didn't only lose experience. We lost talent.

Tyrone Peachey was a skilled versatile player with class and genuine game breaking ability.

Trent Merrin was a consistent workhorse who was not in his best form, but was far more reliable and consistent than RCG is or any of our reserve grade options are.

Corey Harawira-Naera was a very underrated line running second rower. He has nothing on Yeo and Kikau. But he was a great benchie to have who offered a little something in attack none of our current options do.

Christian Crichton was just awful. But probably has a 2019 Mansour covered. Atleast he has a crack at contesting a kick.

The bulk of our starting squad are older and more experienced to the point where it's absurd to think a few extra games improves them. The few guys we could expect to improve:

Edwards - recovering from an injury which is a huge setback
DWZ - Had a shortened pre-season and was on the wing for the opening month. Could go either way
Cleary - had a shortened pre-season but has shown a bit of promise so far. Im optimistic he improves a bit atleast.
Kikau - constant injuries. But also had such a great 2018 season its hard to improve on.
JFH - Has improved considerably IMO.
RCG - Seems his broken jaw came with a broken heart. Experience is irrelevant to desire which RCG doesnt seem to have now
Blake - young enough he can improve and evolve. But so far looks slightly worse.
Katoa - He hit his ceiling IMO.

I just dont understand how anyone could reasonably expect a few extra games makes the same players so much better they compensate for losing multiple representative players.

None of Merrin, CHN of Peachey would of started. So you are talking about losing bench players.

Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Souths etc lost way more important players than us. Yet look top 4 teams once again

Blake looks worse due to coaching. Move him to the left he is dangerous again

 

[mxlegend99]

None of Merrin, CHN of Peachey would of started. So you are talking about losing bench players.

Storm, Roosters, Sharks, Souths etc lost way more important players than us. Yet look top 4 teams once again

Blake looks worse due to coaching. Move him to the left he is dangerous again

Merrin would be starting in the front row pushing RCG permanently to bench or reserve grade
Peachey would be starting at centre and Whare in reserve grade
CHN on the bench doing a much better job than Fuimaono was picked to do

Sharks lose Holmes. They sign Shaun Johnson. They lost Bird. Signed Dugan. Jimmy was disgruntled... they replaced him with Moylan. They added Morris to their backline for depth... have 3x hookers better than any of ours. They're really doing it hard.

Roosters lose a reserve grader. They add Angus Crichton. They lose Blake Ferguson and replace him with 2 international wingers in Morris and Hall A year after adding the best fullback and halfback in the comp at the expense of fringe first graders. Roosters almost always get stronger out of letting players go.

Storm are the only team who don't need to replace guys. Craig Bellamy keeps finding a way around it. Souths wont be upgrading all their players with the GI money money thinking experience covers his loss. Souths won the lottery here... GI on $1m playing terrible is now off their cap giving them room to move and a spor for a better player. I guarantee they handle that free money better than we would and come out of it better.

 

[TheFrog]

Edwards - recovering from an injury which is a huge setback
DWZ - Had a shortened pre-season and was on the wing for the opening month. Could go either way
Cleary - had a shortened pre-season but has shown a bit of promise so far. Im optimistic he improves a bit atleast.
Kikau - constant injuries. But also had such a great 2018 season its hard to improve on.
JFH - Has improved considerably IMO.
RCG - Seems his broken jaw came with a broken heart. Experience is irrelevant to desire which RCG doesnt seem to have now
Blake - young enough he can improve and evolve. But so far looks slightly worse.
Katoa - He hit his ceiling IMO.

Pretty clearly, Gus is on the side of players. So much so even the bottom rung are paid overs. This is why we've had to shed quality players and replace them with players of much lesser quality. The most successful clubs don't do this (except for the Roosters about once every seven or so years). The Big 3 (Roosters, Broncos, Storm) seem able to sign/re-sign players for unders. What is needed is a player manager who is on the side of the club that pays him and working towards its continued success, not one overpaying our players and so leaving gaping holes. Some of the holes have been caused by hoping for the best (as with Katoa/Egan, the bench and depth in particular) but the clubs mentioned above would make sure.

I've got a high regard for Gus as a Rugby League expert and will continue to listen to his podcast but I don't think he's any longer the best man to be running our football club.

 

[franklin2323]

Merrin would be starting in the front row pushing RCG permanently to bench or reserve grade
Peachey would be starting at centre and Whare in reserve grade
CHN on the bench doing a much better job than Fuimaono was picked to do

Sharks lose Holmes. They sign Shaun Johnson. They lost Bird. Signed Dugan. Jimmy was disgruntled... they replaced him with Moylan. They added Morris to their backline for depth... have 3x hookers better than any of ours. They're really doing it hard.

Roosters lose a reserve grader. They add Angus Crichton. They lose Blake Ferguson and replace him with 2 international wingers in Morris and Hall A year after adding the best fullback and halfback in the comp at the expense of fringe first graders. Roosters almost always get stronger out of letting players go.

Storm are the only team who don't need to replace guys. Craig Bellamy keeps finding a way around it. Souths wont be upgrading all their players with the GI money money thinking experience covers his loss. Souths won the lottery here... GI on $1m playing terrible is now off their cap giving them room to move and a spor for a better player. I guarantee they handle that free money better than we would and come out of it better.

Didn't you say pre season we are top 4 team?

 

[forby]

What we need is some wealthy businessmen/benefactors who don't mind losing bets. The NRL has admitted there is nothing they can do about that!

 

[mxlegend99]

Didn't you say pre season we are top 4 team?

I've said wevshould be a top 4 team every year. But also that our roster has gotten weaker every season.

Anything less than improvement is a failure. For 3 years we failed to improve. This makes 4 in a row.

Edit
Actually my first prediction was this

Our starting side is top 4 quality. But our bench and then depth quickly drop off IMO. The potential is there but they are still largely players very early in their development.

Our position on the ladder really depends on how well we do at keeping our starting 13 fit. I think we could almost interchange any bench options and not lose much. But starting injuries will really hurt us IMO. We will no doubt get a few of them.

Im going with another 5th to 8th placed finish. But to make week 3 of finals still if Blake and Kikau are fit.

https://forums.leagueunlimited.com/threads/where-will-the-penrith-panthers-finish-in-2019.473763/

Only I feel very different about our starting side now. Mansour. Whare and Edwards are all about half the players I expected them to be. At their best they round out a top 4 quality side. But the versions of them we have... well i think they're all reserve grade quality now. Edwards might bounce back. But Whare and Mansour are done. I hoped Ivan could defy age and injuries. But I suppose I was overrating players I loved and looking at what they used to be for us.

 

[Panther Pete]

What we need is some wealthy businessmen/benefactors who don't mind losing bets. The NRL has admitted there is nothing they can do about that!

Exactly. Look at that Roosters team, it just makes a mockery of the salary cap.

Basically Gus in that article is just saying the Roosters steal other teams juniors before they get into the NRL.

 

[mxlegend99]

Exactly. Look at that Roosters team, it just makes a mockery of the salary cap.

Basically Gus in that article is just saying the Roosters steal other teams juniors before they get into the NRL.

I mean they signed James Tedesco and Cooper Cronk last year. They add Angus Crichton, Brett Morris and Ryan Hall this year.

They do a great job at poaching future superstars to round out their squad. But they won their last 2 premierships on the back of singing big name players.

SBW. Maloney and Jennings in 2013.
Tedesco and Cronk last year.

Those are f**king huge signings that turn any roster into a threat. Let alone one that is already strong.

 

[franklin2323]

I've said wevshould be a top 4 team every year. But also that our roster has gotten weaker every season.

Anything less than improvement is a failure. For 3 years we failed to improve. This makes 4 in a row.

Edit
Actually my first prediction was this

https://forums.leagueunlimited.com/threads/where-will-the-penrith-panthers-finish-in-2019.473763/

Only I feel very different about our starting side now. Mansour. Whare and Edwards are all about half the players I expected them to be. At their best they round out a top 4 quality side. But the versions of them we have... well i think they're all reserve grade quality now. Edwards might bounce back. But Whare and Mansour are done. I hoped Ivan could defy age and injuries. But I suppose I was overrating players I loved and looking at what they used to be for us.

We still have the roster for 13 wins. Anything under is a failure any way you look at it

 

[mxlegend99]

We still have the roster for 13 wins. Anything under is a failure any way you look at it

If Edwards, Mansour and Whare were as good as we are paying them to be. 100% we do.

But the sad reality is that 2/3s of our backline are no longer NRL quality. Dylan Edwards is young enough to bounce back from his injury. The time frame could be anything, but it should happen.

Mansour and Whare though are older, slower and as the season wears on their fitness will only get worse as they get battered and bruised and pick up niggling injuries. I can't see either of them improving on their sub par NRL form. I was confident a good pre-season could fix them. But they have both gradually gotten worse since their serious injuries.

Malakai is 100% a reserve grader. But is a better NRL option than those 3 guys at the moment.

 

[franklin2323]

If Edwards, Mansour and Whare were as good as we are paying them to be. 100% we do.

But the sad reality is that 2/3s of our backline are no longer NRL quality. Dylan Edwards is young enough to bounce back from his injury. The time frame could be anything, but it should happen.

Mansour and Whare though are older, slower and as the season wears on their fitness will only get worse as they get battered and bruised and pick up niggling injuries. I can't see either of them improving on their sub par NRL form. I was confident a good pre-season could fix them. But they have both gradually gotten worse since their serious injuries.

Malakai is 100% a reserve grader. But is a better NRL option than those 3 guys at the moment.

Then it is up to the coach to make the changes needed but we didn't sack hook to miss finals

 

[mxlegend99]

Then it is up to the coach to make the changes needed but we didn't sack hook to miss finals

What changes can we make? Honestly?

Our salary cap is tied up in in our starting squad and our depth as a result is terrible.Mansour and Whare are average at best. But there's no one in our top 30 that is better than they are.

How do you suppose Ivan fixes that this season? We're stuck with what is available. This is a mess Hook and Gould made.

We need to do a mini clean out and rebuild. Because this roster is not capable of winning a premiership. It's good enough to be in the top 8... and no real threat for more. Our premiership window is basically closed at the moment

 

[franklin2323]

What changes can we make? Honestly?

Our salary cap is tied up in in our starting squad and our depth as a result is terrible.Mansour and Whare are average at best. But there's no one in our top 30 that is better than they are.

How do you suppose Ivan fixes that this season? We're stuck with what is available. This is a mess Hook and Gould made.

We need to do a mini clean out and rebuild. Because this roster is not capable of winning a premiership. It's good enough to be in the top 8... and no real threat for more. Our premiership window is basically closed at the moment

Johns. Too. Aekins in. Will help putting Blake back outside Kikau too. There is many options to fix the holes

 

[mxlegend99]

Johns. Too. Aekins in. Will help putting Blake back outside Kikau too. There is many options to fix the holes

If there are so many options why did you name two options that aren't possible?

Johns isn't listed in our top 30 on our website. Too is a development player and can't be picked. That leaves only Aekins.

Aekins is an option for fullback only. Which DWZ has covered. Aekins only helps us fix centre if DWZ moves there. Which means we're probably weakening one position to play another guy out of position.

But sadly it might be our only option that might have a chance at success.

Jed Cartwright injured. Fuimaono is basically the only option we have at centre and he's not even a good reserve grade centre.

 

[Abacus]

Which means we're probably weakening one position to play another guy out of position.

Nope. Moving DWZ for Aekins would be an upgrade to FB.

I know you love DWZ, but his limitations at FB (lack of speed and ball-playing) make it easy for teams to counter his 1 strength (running the ball back hard on receipts). Just need a good kick chase and DWZ becomes largely ineffective as a FB.

The team would be better off making this change sooner, rather than pandering to DWZ's desire to be a FB.

 

[mxlegend99]

Nope. Moving DWZ for Aekins would be an upgrade to FB.

I know you love DWZ, but his limitations at FB (lack of speed and ball-playing) make it easy for teams to counter his 1 strength (running the ball back hard on receipts). Just need a good kick chase and DWZ becomes largely ineffective as a FB.

The team would be better off making this change sooner, rather than pandering to DWZ's desire to be a FB.

Moving an international fullback for a reserve grade fullback is not an upgrade.

Aekins is not close to proven in first grade yet. We have no way of knowing what we will be getting from him. He had a solid debut obviously. But one game doesn't mean much.

I think its our best bet out of the few bad options we have. But i wouldnt be surprised if he sizzled out like Crichton did after a couple of games either. Or he could be the next Tedesco.

But there's no guarantees. It's absurd to think he's an automatic upgrade. Dallin would look like a god in reserve grade.

 

[franklin2323]

If there are so many options why did you name two options that aren't possible?

Johns isn't listed in our top 30 on our website. Too is a development player and can't be picked. That leaves only Aekins.

Aekins is an option for fullback only. Which DWZ has covered. Aekins only helps us fix centre if DWZ moves there. Which means we're probably weakening one position to play another guy out of position.

But sadly it might be our only option that might have a chance at success.

Jed Cartwright injured. Fuimaono is basically the only option we have at centre and he's not even a good reserve grade centre.

We have 2 spots free. If not Johns/Too then recruit but no excuse to blame the players if the same guys get picked

 

[franklin2323]

Nope. Moving DWZ for Aekins would be an upgrade to FB.

I know you love DWZ, but his limitations at FB (lack of speed and ball-playing) make it easy for teams to counter his 1 strength (running the ball back hard on receipts). Just need a good kick chase and DWZ becomes largely ineffective as a FB.

The team would be better off making this change sooner, rather than pandering to DWZ's desire to be a FB.

In defence target our slow guys which Sharks did well. When we have the ball pressure our halves pretty simple.

A ball playing FB helps create doubt or creates stuff if the halves are stopped.

 

[mxlegend99]

We have 2 spots free. If not Johns/Too then recruit but no excuse to blame the players if the same guys get picked

Ivan literally cant pick those players unless Gus promotes them. Gus might have other ideas for our remaining top 30 spots.

Either way it's not an option for Ivan right now and blaming him for not picking eligible players is ridiculous.

Its a good thing we havent rushed to replace Phillips. There are a lot of holes in our roster and we cant just waste his spot on someone for the sake of it. That's how a third of our top 30 are in the squad to begin with.