Well if you’re conceding that someone else could have done better with that squad then it doesn’t follow that sacking him at the time would have been the wrong decision. The 2020-2022 squads were pretty damn good and we got a couple of week 2 finals appearances and 1 grand final appearance where we were flogged. It’s pretty subjective as to whether that’s an A+ or a B+ report card for that period.
I think there's plenty of worse coaches than Brad Arthur so we were a chance of replacing him with one of those if we'd sacked him. Anyway as I said, we could've done better with the same coach and more luck. We could've done worse with a better coach and less luck. When you're talking about such a small sample as finals wins over a six year year period, luck is a huge factor. Ivan Cleary is illustrative of this point. If you break his career into six year blocks it shows significant variation:
Ivan Cleary years | Club/s | Finals wins |
---|
2006-2011 | Warriors | 4 |
2012-2017 | Panthers, Tigers | 1 |
2018-2023 | Tigers, Panthers | 11 |
2024 (1 year) | Panthers | 2-3 |
Wayne Bennett is the most consistent winner over consecutive six year blocks, but there is still that early career spike when the Broncos were at their unstoppable peak as an organisation:
Wayne Bennett years | Club/s | Finals wins |
---|
1987-1992 | Raiders, Broncos | 5 |
1993-1998 | Broncos | 10 |
1999-2004 | Broncos | 5 |
2005-2010 | Broncos, Dragons | 7 |
2011-2016 | Dragons, Knights, Broncos | 5 |
2017-2022 | Broncos, Rabbitohs | 6 |
2023-2024 (2 years) | Dolphins | 0 |
Ricky Stuart is also a great example of variability across his career, but with an early career spike:
Ricky Stuart years | Club/s | Finals wins |
---|
2002-2007 | Roosters, Sharks | 8 |
2008-2013 | Sharks, Eels | 1 |
2014-2019 | Raiders | 3 |
2020-2024 (5 years) | Raiders | 3 |
The point is, how do we explain the extreme difference between levels of finals success throughout each of these men's careers? The only logical answer is that it's due to factors outside the coach's control. The quality of the roster, injuries/suspensions to key players, the quality of the opposition on the day, etc. These factors all account for the difference between Arthur's six year blocks:
Brad Arthur years | Club | Finals wins |
---|
2014-2019 | Eels | 1 |
2020-2024 (5 years) | Eels | 3 |