Melon's Rankings for 2006

[OVP]

Sorry Melon, but you're WAYYYYYYY of the mark, which is highlighted by several massive flaws...

Firstly, there isn't referee favourtism.

Secondly, how can you ranks Souths recruitment (1) better than the Roosters (0), when the Roosters got Anasta and Harrison, and Souths for Galuvao and barely anyone else?

Thirdly, injuries must be factored when considering last years figures, cause the Knights shouldn't and wont be as low as they were.

And the Raiders get a 4 for recruitment? Who the hell did they sign, I'm struggling to think of one player....

He weighs the recruitment against the losses. The Roosters may have gained Anasta and Harrison and alot of lesser known players, but also lost Cayless (HUGE) and Crocker and Walker (no this really should be in the "gain" column :lol and Webb etc. A fair result to call the gains and losses even in the Roosters case. Cant speak for the Souths or Raiders figures tho ... but most sets of fans seem to agree with his assessment.

 

[melon....]

Sorry Melon, but you're WAYYYYYYY of the mark, which is highlighted by several massive flaws...

Firstly, there isn't referee favourtism.

Secondly, how can you ranks Souths recruitment (1) better than the Roosters (0), when the Roosters got Anasta and Harrison, and Souths for Galuvao and barely anyone else?

Thirdly, injuries must be factored when considering last years figures, cause the Knights shouldn't and wont be as low as they were.

And the Raiders get a 4 for recruitment? Who the hell did they sign, I'm struggling to think of one player....

PJ,

Ill ignore the ref comment.

As for the recruitment factor, it isnt solely made up of just who they gained. It is also who they lost IN ALL GRADES. AND another factor is the retention/re-signing. Easts lost more up and comers AND rep players which was a factor. Canberra's youth retention was better as was the re-signing of marquee players like Schifforbrains.

Its not simple...thats why so many want the Melon algorithm.

 

[*Sandy*]

Nice post melon. It shows you've put a lot of effort into your rankings and that in itself is enjoyable to read.

You've also stumped me, finally your acknowledging Penrith as a power house contender and not simply a fluke. Hopefully Penrith will prove you acknowledgements right and power through to the finals. I'm quietly confident they could take the damn thing out again if our key players stay on track. Best of luck to your team this season and no doubt we'll all be back to our rivalry best when our teams meet up during the season. ;-)

 

[bulldog]

Mr. Procrastination beaten to the last contract by Big Willie.

:lol:

I like it, Mr Procrastanasta

 

[melon....]

Nice post melon. It shows you've put a lot of effort into your rankings and that in itself is enjoyable to read.

You've also stumped me, finally your acknowledging Penrith as a power house contender and not simply a fluke. Hopefully Penrith will prove you acknowledgements right and power through to the finals. I'm quietly confident they could take the damn thing out again if our key players stay on track. Best of luck to your team this season and no doubt we'll all be back to our rivalry best when our teams meet up during the season. ;-)

Powerhouse might be a bit strong...after all you have Gower.:lol:

Why am I laughing...we have Da Finchy.

 

[sooperdooper]

i honestly dont rate penrith, people say they have these stars etc..... however yes they won the comp in 03 and were then gifted with rep positions etc, 04 they were still good but lower than 03 and 05 they were pretty bad...
why does everyone rate them?

 

[Franko]

i honestly dont rate penrith, people say they have these stars etc..... however yes they won the comp in 03 and were then gifted with rep positions etc, 04 they were still good but lower than 03 and 05 they were pretty bad...
why does everyone rate them?

I think if they have there best side on the paddock they're a chance. However they lost the best of there yourh in off season and that might come back to bite them in the paw.

 

[Baron Vo Mandor]

With Penriths forward pack they should run roughshod, and their halfs are up their as well are there backs, they should be regulars in the finals.

They have plenty of potential to improve so hopefully for there fans Lang can bung a firecracker up their arses and get them firing.

 

[sooperdooper]

I think if they have there best side on the paddock they're a chance. However they lost the best of there yourh in off season and that might come back to bite them in the paw.

the club needs a big overhaul.

 

[Southern Rooster]

Bloody hell you had to remind me , i backed Algorithim on the Gold Coast and it's still looking for a run.

Just tought i would add on your Souths comments. They also beat Canberra home and keep in mind John Sutton was out for 8 weeks. They were the 8 weeks where they went bad. They also nearly beat home quite a few higher profile clubs. With some stability there now they should continue to improve.

Not the best punter are ya.

 

[bunnies]

League Fans,

Ive compiled last years statistics, applied a couple of my patent factoring algorithms that take into account on field discipline, ref favouritism, and recruitment and have come up with my 2006 Rankings.

Note: Stats are based on Regular season games (rounds 1-26) only.

Here are some of the key elements that contributed to the overall ranking.

Attack - Tries scored. Self explanitory.

Defense - Tries conceded. Again self explanitory

Melon's AD Factor. A figure representing a combined attack.defence co-efficient. Range is from +2.0 (best attack and defense combined) to -2.0 (worst) and takes into account, line breaks, tries scored, conceded, scored off kicks, conceded off kicks, tackles made, missed, effectiveness.

Melon's FD Factor. A figure representing the balance between the ability to pull penalties, through exploiting weakness or referee favouritism, V Disciplinary problems/ conceded Penalties. For teams like the Roosters the overall resultant equated to missing the finals. For teams like Manly, it shows Greg Hartley is alive and well, and they and they were heavily favoured with many lop sided penalty counts in their favour. The Knights were the most favoured, probably a factor was the "go easy" approach due to the team with the golden child, going through the worst injury toll in history. Sympathy voting at its best. They still earnt the spoon. Ranges from +2.0 (Greg Hartley's pets) to -2.0 (cant win against the whistle no matter what).

Recruitment Factor - Takes into account players gained Versus players lost icluding factors like representative experience, suspensions/disciplinary history, position weakening or strengthening, length of contract/retention and coaching.

Overall Rankings for 2006:

1. Eels - Awesome attack. Solid defense. Key player retention very good. If their squad looked strong last year its even stronger this year with their attacking halfback Tim Smith a year wiser. Will be very hard to beat for the title. One question mark..........Coach "Bridesmaid".

2. Dragons - Last year was their year. Statistically and squad wise, they are up their. Mentally, after failing last year to "ordinary" opposition in the finals, I dont know if they can go one or two better. Notorious slow starters. But should be there abouts in the top 4 come September.

3. Broncos - Havent missed the semis in centuries. Very tired mob and still lacking a top class halfback, but Lockyear is the man. If he's fit, they can beat anyone. If he retires from origin, they'll probably win it.

4. Cowboys - A slight set back with the loss of their leader in Rauhihi. I still think they have a young and dedicated pack led by Travis Norton and a ton of enthusiasm to compensate. Will push again for a top 4 spot. Question mark over Firman and if Thurston can carry him if he has to. Good strong and willing young guns coming through.

5. Panthers - One of the power houses that just had an off year. Have the runs on teh board and the talent as well as the depth and coach to succeed again. Their retention/recruitment outweighs their losses.

6.Wests Tigers - The Premiers will find out how tough it is to back up when you are the champ. Have retained and recruited well with Lolesi over Elford strengthening their backs. If the halves and their "unknown" pack fires up again, could go close.

7. Roosters - Third top defence. Discipline on par with most. Their 2005 failure has been highlighted in having the 4th worst attack. A combination that can be described in 4 words. No Freddy, Brett Finch. Should improve with possibly the buy of the year in Harrison. Anasta to steady the halves. They lose Finch, they will win the comp.

8. Bulldogs - A bad year due to injury, lethal on their day. Have retained well, as well as the cap allows with Mr. Procrastination beaten to the last contract by Big Willie. If they stay fit, they will scare a few. Unknown halves combo is a risk.

9. Storm - Best defence in 2005 and one of the top attacks early in the season. Fell away towards the end, and the loss of Kearns, Bell and Orford will hurt them. Good and bad signings in Crocker and Walker. Will slide. Lean times ahead.

10. Sharks - If anyone makes Melbourne's woes look minor, its Cronulla. Lossing Nutley and Stevens will be huge for Kimmorley's effectiveness. Thomspon may add some spark in the pack again. Peachy's leadership will be missed. Backline will get caned.

11. Sea Eagles - They were very fortunate on several occassions last season. Stats indicate Greg Hartley lives. Best mates with the whistle, and Ben Kennedy was teh only one that really made an impact. Back to earth in 2006.

12. Knights - It used to be if Johns was fit, the Knights would probably win. Last year was evident on his return. Unfortunately, they have zero depth and even with Johns, they have the worst defence in the league. Will struggle most weeks.

13. Raiders - Have recruited well, and I think they are about to reach a turning point over the next couple of years...coaching permitted. Need some smarts on field and less whining from senior players. They are not favoured with the whistle. Wont make the 8 but wont come last.

14. Warriors - No Stacy....its over. Cleary has pressure to perform already. Will struggle without a genuine playmaker. Rovelli is not the answer.

15. Rabbitohs - To think if it wasnt for the Dogs in 2002, and the Knights horrid injury toll lst year, they would be going onto their 6th spoon in a row. The Phone Chucker's money wont make one difference....as long as George is there.

Get a F$#KEN LIFE YOU WANKER !

 

[Iafeta]

Get a F$#KEN LIFE YOU WANKER !

Quality post.

To get on here and devalue a fairly good effort, counter-acting it with no effort of your own - there's more value in watching grass grow so perhaps you should get a life.

 

[Big Mick]

Get a F$#KEN LIFE YOU WANKER !

I'm pretty sure you are the wanker.

To ridicule a well thought through post like that is just the act of a dead set tosser.

 

[JW]

Good read Melon, interesting results.

 

[melon....]

Get a F$#KEN LIFE YOU WANKER !

Have a spoon you toothless loser.

 

[Spitty]

Good post and well thought out theory. I don't agree with it, though.

 

[melon....]

Good post and well thought out theory. I don't agree with it, though.

Spitty. If we all agreed it wouldnt be fun.

 

[UndertakerMike]

Overall Rankings for 2006:

1. Eels -
2. Dragons -
3. Broncos -
4. Cowboys -
5. Panthers -
6.Wests Tigers -
7. Roosters -
8. Bulldogs -
9. Storm -
10. Sharks -
11. Sea Eagles -
12. Knights -
13. Raiders -
14. Warriors -
15. Rabbitohs -

Well done Melon.... I rekon the Algo is wrong about Storm and Rabbitoes. They'll be a bit higher.

And the Panthers and Sharks may not finish as high as you rekon.

 

[Redback71]

isnt it funny the eels can always manage to top the stats and win the minor premiership, but not win the big one.

 

[sharkadelic]

Just want to query one point, Melon -

The first couple columns I think are a fair cop. The recruitment section poses some questions though. How can Canberra get a 4 in recruitment and the sharks -5. Admittedly the Raiders lost next to nobody but gained no-one special either. Thurling, Learoyd and Tilse are good prospects but Lomu and Williams are very ordinary at best.

The sharks did lose some veterans in Peach and Stevens, but they were no longer the force they once were in rep calculations. Nutley is a big loss, true. Sullivan and GAlloway were MIA more often then not and McGoldrick and co were not up to snuff.

Even losing two leader from the pack, they recruited Thompson and Ross which should cover alot of the experience shortfall. Simmons for PEach is a bad swap but I am hoping Albert can step in to help out there.

Teams like Auckland, Melb and Canterbury who have lost key playmakers surely would fare worse?

Melbourne should really watch their a$$ recruiting Crocker and Walker to cover the loss of Kearns, Bell and Orford. Inglis covers Bell but the other two leave gaping holes.