Fair enough. In hindsight I should have said "why would they want to keep him?" Because that's what I meant. This is not inconsistent with the notion of reaching some kind of settlement. I can't imagine why they would refer the matter to the NRL if they were prepared to do this... But I'm happy to admit I have no more information on this situation than you do, so I can only guess as to their motivation for that.
Who are the other antagonists in this? Your clubman in Sheens, Benji, Moltzen and even Humphreys have come out with numerous quotes over the last 3 months suggesting Moltzen was moving on, and he had 3 months to say we're not giving Moltzen a release. Instead he waited till your halfback belted his missus and virtually every trade window has shut, then says nope it's not happening.
So where exactly does the blame lie, if its not with Humphreys?
As far as I can see it lies with Moltzen and Tauber for signing a contract that they weren't entitled to; and with the Dragons for not putting a "subject to release" clause in the thing from the start...
The first ever article I read about this (which was actually a couple of days after I first saw rumours about it on this forum) said that Moltzen had told the Tigers he'd like to stay before the Lui/Backo incident occurred. Again, only going the same info as you lot have got, and again I'm guessing.
But if I wanted to be a tool about it I could say: "Seems like Doust is trying to use the Lui situation to his advantage to cover up his ineptitude..." No doubt you Dragons fans will see it differently, though, and I guess that's why we're all in this pickle.