If any bid does come out of nz organically then Perth is in a lot of trouble
perths best chance is nz does nothing whilst their govt works on their bid
the nightmare scenario is nz govt backing a bid and the bears playing the trump card
Its not a nightmare, if its not to be Perth Im quite happy to see a successful NZ2 club in the NRL. How on earth they can be set up to be successful with the current NRL thinking that they dont need to invest anything in new clubs is the big question mark over it all.
I think the harebrained notion that some have that you can have a club spanning two or three smaller cities, largely because we all know being based in one of the cities isnt viable, shows that there are serious question marks over funding for a NZ2 side. If they can tick that box and the NRL believes it wont be detrimental to the next Australian TV deal then they are certainly in with a shot.
End of day as I've said many times before it will come down to the following criteria, probably in this order:
1. Value to TV and overall sponsorship revenue for NRL - they want to make as much money as they can or they risk falling so far behind AFL revenue level the results will be unthinkable
2. Club viability - NRL doesnt want to have to pump anymore than the grant in, dumb if you ask me but that's their mentality (in this comes fanbase, corporates support, stadium quality and deal, ownership wealth and Govt support)
3. NRL strategy- whats its most important strategy? to become an Australian national comp or to spread the game in NZ
4. Building a competitive team - close to point 2 is can the club recruit/develop players to be competitive. Nothing will put a club in financial trouble like wooden spoons year after year.
5. Existing clubs acceptance. NRL cannot expand unless the 17 current clubs agree. Would Australian clubs rather see Perth or Wellington? Would the Warriors kick up a fuss given their meagre success since inception?
Travel has been mentioned by some but that wont come into it. It takes longer to fly from Wellington to East coast (with international check in time) than it does from Perth, and cost is the same.
I think the NRL will be pondering on these things now in how it deals with Club 18, or at least I hope they are!