New Zealand 2 will deal a massive blow to NZ rugby

[The Great Dane]

I have some very good evidence of that. Take a look at how the Swans, Lions, Giants and Suns crowds swell significantly higher when playing the big Melbourne clubs compared to other teams. Take a look at the Lions and Suns top crowd this year (which is the case most years v Collingwood), then take a look at how much lower the QLD derby crowd is between the Suns and Lions. It is heavily reliant on expats.

And no, considering the investment, the following is not that healthy if you are relying on people moving over the border. The TV ratings and average attendances have been stagnate for 25 - 30 years since the SL war bump.... which of course, you see as a coincidence In the case of Brisbane, their TV ratings sometimes struggle to outnumber those at the Gabba.

It takes multiple monumental leaps in logic to come to the conclusion that popular teams drawing larger attendances on average in a city is evidence that growth of a sport in that city is solely down to a significant population of expats from a place where it's popular boosting attendance.
Furthermore, Collingwood drawing a crowd in Sydney is no more evidence of a significant population of expat Collingwood fans than e.g. Liverpool selling out the MCG is evidence of their being an enormous population of Scousers in Melbourne boosting soccer's numbers...

It's honestly a totally munted argument that relies on a bunch of suppositions and requires you to largely or completely ignore basic facts like more popular teams have a larger fanbase across the board, are more likely to have a larger traveling contingent of fans, have more prestige and draw a bigger audience on that alone, get better publicity that helps to market their games, have more intergenerational support on average, etc, etc, etc.

You even contradict yourself in your own argument when you suggest the AFL is 'relying on people moving over the border' but then suggest that their growth stagnated after a SL bump. Which is BS as well BTW, but I find trying to argue people off such positions of faith to be a total waste of time.
You'd expect to see steady growth roughly inline with the number of people immigrating from "AFL states" if it was the case that AFL's growth is down to immigration, especially ratings, yet you claim that their growth stagnated post SL. . . You can't have it both ways.

 

[Gobsmacked]

It's way too early to know that definitively.

Like most expansion teams when they first enter a comp the Dolphins fanbase is absolutely heaving with poseurs and fair weathers who are only there because of the hype. Those people will start to disappear once the novelty starts to wear, then we'll get a better idea of the genuine size of their fanbase and what we can expect out of their average attendances going forward.

I wouldn't be surprised if their average attendance drops by anywhere up to roughly 10k over the coming decade, it really depends on how successful they are on the pitch. They need to cement a single home ground as well (i.e. play all their home games at Suncorp), but that's a side quest.

Though I'm sure that the Dolphins presence has had some impact, I don't think it's reasonable to suggest that they're the major reason, let alone the sole reason, that the Broncos numbers have jumped up.
The Broncos numbers have been significantly boosted by this being the first time that they've been genuine contenders in a while, and their averages this year are similar to what they have been when they've been successful in the past as well.

The point is, a new team in New Zealand won't " cannibalise " the Warriors fan base. Probably the opposite.

 

[Wb1234]

TikTok - Make Your Day

Warriors getting the celebs in

 

[Canard]

That's been debunked with the Dolphins. Broncos attendance and engagement grew as a result of the Dolphins.
Having a direct rival drives engagement. NZ Having another team will drive the Warriors to another level.

It's way too early to know that definitively.

Like most expansion teams when they first enter a comp the Dolphins fanbase is absolutely heaving with poseurs and fair weathers who are only there because of the hype. Those people will start to disappear once the novelty starts to wear, then we'll get a better idea of the genuine size of their fanbase and what we can expect out of their average attendances going forward.

I wouldn't be surprised if their average attendance drops by anywhere up to roughly 10k over the coming decade, it really depends on how successful they are on the pitch. They need to cement a single home ground as well (i.e. play all their home games at Suncorp), but that's a side quest.

Though I'm sure that the Dolphins presence has had some impact, I don't think it's reasonable to suggest that they're the major reason, let alone the sole reason, that the Broncos numbers have jumped up.
The Broncos numbers have been significantly boosted by this being the first time that they've been genuine contenders in a while, and their averages this year are similar to what they have been when they've been successful in the past as well.

Brisbane is an entrenched Rugby League City that has been completely under served by the NRL for 30 years.

Other then self interested Broncos fans and club admin, no-one seriously suggested that Brisbane2 would be detrimental to them. Even then, the Dolphins failing to make the finals this year, will dent their hype and membership. Hopefully the Dolphins will lead to some TV revenue in 4 or 5 years (it has given us nothing yet)

NZ is none of the above, and in fact most areas of the country actively dislike our code and the TV money isn't there.

 

[Gobsmacked]

Brisbane is an entrenched Rugby League City that has been completely under served by the NRL for 30 years.

Other then self interested Broncos fans and club admin, no-one seriously suggested that Brisbane2 would be detrimental to them. Even then, the Dolphins failing to make the finals this year, will dent their hype and membership. Hopefully the Dolphins will lead to some TV revenue in 4 or 5 years (it has given us nothing yet)

NZ is none of the above, and in fact most areas of the country actively dislike our code and the TV money isn't there.

My visits to NZ say the opposite!

 

[Wb1234]

My visits to NZ say the opposite!

The arguments against nz2 grow weaker by the day

I would really like to see the arlc fast track them ahead of Perth

just like Brisbane nz is undersevjced and crying out for more nrl with the collapse of super rugby

with the crowds the warriors are getting and a favourable home draw each week is only going to have more and more hype

 

[titoelcolombiano]

It takes multiple monumental leaps in logic to come to the conclusion that popular teams drawing larger attendances on average in a city is evidence that growth of a sport in that city is solely down to a significant population of expats from a place where it's popular boosting attendance.
Furthermore, Collingwood drawing a crowd in Sydney is no more evidence of a significant population of expat Collingwood fans than e.g. Liverpool selling out the MCG is evidence of their being an enormous population of Scousers in Melbourne boosting soccer's numbers...

It's honestly a totally munted argument that relies on a bunch of suppositions and requires you to largely or completely ignore basic facts like more popular teams have a larger fanbase across the board, are more likely to have a larger traveling contingent of fans, have more prestige and draw a bigger audience on that alone, get better publicity that helps to market their games, have more intergenerational support on average, etc, etc, etc.

You even contradict yourself in your own argument when you suggest the AFL is 'relying on people moving over the border' but then suggest that their growth stagnated after a SL bump. Which is BS as well BTW, but I find trying to argue people off such positions of faith to be a total waste of time.
You'd expect to see steady growth roughly inline with the number of people immigrating from "AFL states" if it was the case that AFL's growth is down to immigration, especially ratings, yet you claim that their growth stagnated post SL. . . You can't have it both ways.

Why are the ratings barely beating the attendance at the stadium in some cases?

For you to suggest that a large percentage of the Swans, GWS, Lions and Giants attendances aren't bolstered by expat Victorians is as you would put it 'delusional'. It's not a coincidence that their attendances swell dramatically when one of the big Melbourne fans are in town.

Are some locals into it? Of course, but the TV ratings in the local market suggest not as many as is being sold.

There is no disputing the stagnant nature of the crowds... are you disputing this? If you are, let me help you out....

1994 Average Attendances:
Brisbane Bears: 12,434
Sydney Swans: 9,814

1997 Average Attendances:
Brisbane Lions: 19,550
Sydney Swans: 35,181

Now, I'll humour your theory that this has nothing to do with the Super League War at all - lol. Complete co-incidence.

2004 Average Attendances:
Brisbane Lions: 31,717
Sydney Swans: 33,198

Both teams on the up, Lions had just done the three-peat and the Swans were a couple of years away from a premiership.

Now, considering this staggering growth due to the ''amazing product'' and ''awesome management'' at the AFL... I can't wait to see what both teams are averaging nearly 20 years later.... would be massive right?

2023 Average Attendances;
Brisbane Lions: 28,469
Sydney Swans: 32,059

To your point about why the attendances haven't risen with increased Victorian migration.... an obvious assumption is assimilation. RL is the number one game in town and the kids of the migrants are going to follow the dominant code... or some other code altogether that is cool amongst their friend group... basketball, soccer... whatever. AFL just isn't deep enough in the psyche to penetrate.

 

[titoelcolombiano]

I never said that

i think the ratings are far higher

why are afl ratings falling and rugby league ratings rising ?

why does nrl rates this pants out of afl ?

dots on a map vs real clubs when it comes to expansion.

Dots on a map expansion is a shit idea. Going where your game is wanted, followed, loved is a great idea. I include Perth in that statement as there is a desire for the game there and it will expand our code. NRL has the population centres on its side. What it does need to do better to leverage that moving forward is negotiate and lobby better.

AFL has maxed out it's potential, they've thrown the kitchen sink at all the major capitals. Yes, their revenue has increased dramatically, yes, they've also had to spend a fortune in the process and they'll have to continue spending it indefinitely to prop up unwanted teams.

Now, the NRL has not had to spend even 1% of the money the AFL have to prop up teams. We have a geographical advantage of NSW & QLD representing 53% of the population. We have the premier sporting event in the country, we dominate the TV ratings, we have a good niche in NZ and Melbourne and we have Perth banging on the door to get in. We haven't even started our expansion run and growth trajectory properly and our revenue increases have been staggering also. Are we behind at the moment? Yes, have we even begun to leverage the game properly yet? No.

Imagine the landscape when Perth does come in... imagine the landscape when the ARLC properly leverages NZ though the Warriors, Kiwis, Tonga, Samoa and potentially NZ2 NRL team... AFL peaked in high school, we are the stud getting our shit together and hitting our prime in our 40's after f**king up in his 20's

 

[Gobsmacked]

The arguments against nz2 grow weaker by the day

I would really like to see the arlc fast track them ahead of Perth

just like Brisbane nz is undersevjced and crying out for more nrl with the collapse of super rugby

with the crowds the warriors are getting and a favourable home draw each week is only going to have more and more hype

Imagine how many kiwis weren't captured by the Warriors.. probably in the millions! And would jump on board to spite the Warriors ( Auckland crowd)
Rugby league would explode in NZ with another team to rival the Warriors!
If I was a Union fan, I'd be shiting myself at the prospect.

 

[Perth Red]

Dots on a map expansion is a shit idea. Going where your game is wanted, followed, loved is a great idea. I include Perth in that statement as there is a desire for the game there and it will expand our code. NRL has the population centres on its side. What it does need to do better to leverage that moving forward is negotiate and lobby better.

AFL has maxed out it's potential, they've thrown the kitchen sink at all the major capitals. Yes, their revenue has increased dramatically, yes, they've also had to spend a fortune in the process and they'll have to continue spending it indefinitely to prop up unwanted teams.

Now, the NRL has not had to spend even 1% of the money the AFL have to prop up teams. We have a geographical advantage of NSW & QLD representing 53% of the population. We have the premier sporting event in the country, we dominate the TV ratings, we have a good niche in NZ and Melbourne and we have Perth banging on the door to get in. We haven't even started our expansion run and growth trajectory properly and our revenue increases have been staggering also. Are we behind at the moment? Yes, have we even begun to leverage the game properly yet? No.

Imagine the landscape when Perth does come in... imagine the landscape when the ARLC properly leverages NZ though the Warriors, Kiwis, Tonga, Samoa and potentially NZ2 NRL team... AFL peaked in high school, we are the stud getting our shit together and hitting our prime in our 40's after f**king up in his 20's

Potential isnt worth much if not realised. Our game has always had potential, its a great game after all, but sadly it has failed time and again in its administration. Im of the age where Ive begun to believe its just in our DNA and can be traced back to our genetics as a working class game that doesn't see much in itself.

You say AFL has peaked but in reality they have just signed a tv deal that has blown everything that has gone before it out of the water and have continued their national growth strategy in a very smart way by getting Govt to massively fund the next opportunity whilst themselves having the resources to throw at making it as successful as possible. They dont stand still, thats the difference between the two codes.

Maybe it will be different over the next 20 years, maybe not. Time will tell.

 

[Gobsmacked]

Another NZ team would probably generate the biggest cross code migration for a hundred years.

 

[Gobsmacked]

Potential isnt worth much if not realised. Our game has always had potential, its a great game after all, but sadly it has failed time and again in its administration. Im of the age where Ive begun to believe its just in our DNA and can be traced back to our genetics as a working class game that doesn't see much in itself.

You say AFL has peaked but in reality they have just signed a tv deal that has blown everything that has gone before it out of the water and have continued their national growth strategy in a very smart way by getting Govt to massively fund the next opportunity whilst themselves having the resources to throw at making it as successful as possible. They dont stand still, thats the difference between the two codes.

Maybe it will be different over the next 20 years, maybe not. Time will tell.

So what you're saying is our main Perth advocate, is from England and prefers AFL...
I actually wonder what you - mr Perth red will actually watch when they're both playing the same time slot

 

[Perth Red]

So what you're saying is our main Perth advocate, is from England and prefers AFL...
I actually wonder what you - mr Perth red will actually watch when they're both playing the same time slot

I know only one person on here who has claimed to be an AFL fan and that was WB lol. I have no gripe against AFL like the loonies on here but I have no interest in it either beyond our games main competitor and a good bar to measure ourselves against as such.

Meanwhile looking forward to my clubs CC semi at the weekend and Storm's next game.

Good trolling by the way!

 

[mongoose]

The question is can and will the ARLC leverage the games strengths like you suggest? No administration has yet shown it can do this - probably because we are still run by TV networks and media organisations. We also have a piss weak and compliant media that do nothing but defend the NRL and push for the status quo at all times. The coverage of the sport from Newspapers to TV panel shows to commentators is utterly shameful to be honest - I mean its actually like someone is playing a joke on the sport and its viewers at times. The game need to get its shit together in a lot of areas.

 

[Gobsmacked]

I know only one person on here who has claimed to be an AFL fan and that was WB lol. I have no gripe against AFL like the loonies on here but I have no interest in it either beyond our games main competitor and a good bar to measure ourselves against as such.

Meanwhile looking forward to my clubs CC semi at the weekend and Storm's next game.

Good trolling by the way!

No.
On no metric is it a good bar to measure our sport on.
Not even the same ball.

 

[Perth Red]

No.
On no metric is it a good bar to measure our sport on.
Not even the same ball.

They are literally the top two sports in the country, of course they are the measure, as are we for them.

 

[Matua]

Imagine how many kiwis weren't captured by the Warriors.. probably in the millions! And would jump on board to spite the Warriors ( Auckland crowd)
Rugby league would explode in NZ with another team to rival the Warriors!
If I was a Union fan, I'd be shiting myself at the prospect.

For your fantasy to come true those fans need to jumping on board, not shitting themselves at the prospect.

 

[Perth Red]

Havent seen AFl fans abandoning their game to jump on Storm, or NRL fans abandoning the West Sydney clubs to jump on GWS. I dont see much reason why NZ union fans will be any different?
Some will follow both sports and get behind a new NRL club in their city but keep union as their main sport, some will keep on hating on RL and not follow them at all, and some people will be RL fans through and through and just be pleased to have a local club to follow. The idea that Union fans across NZ are going to jump codes due to an NRL club in Christchurch or Wellington is fanciful at best.

 

[Gobsmacked]

For your fantasy to come true those fans need to jumping on board, not shitting themselves at the prospect.

I agree but we both know the ones I'm talking about

 

[Gobsmacked]

Havent seen AFl fans abandoning their game to jump on Storm, or NRL fans abandoning the West Sydney clubs to jump on GWS. I dont see much reason why NZ union fans will be any different?
Some will follow both sports and get behind a new NRL club in their city but keep union as their main sport, some will keep on hating on RL and not follow them at all, and some people will be RL fans through and through and just be pleased to have a local club to follow. The idea that Union fans across NZ are going to jump codes due to an NRL club in Christchurch or Wellington is fanciful at best.

Stuff

i.stuff.co.nz

"Once they pulled out by 20-odd points, or whatever, I actually switched it over to see what rugby league game was on.''